ScoreProb
First Amateur Division Belgium VV - 11 2026

Tienen vs Hoogstraten

Tienen Home · Elo 1,477
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Hoogstraten Away · Elo 1,551
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Tienen win
Tienen winPick
37.1%
Draw
28.4%
Hoogstraten win
34.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.6%
No44.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.7%
Under 2.547.3%

How much we know

Tienen history47 matches
Hoogstraten history44 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.1%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Tienen are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Hoogstraten are rated 74 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,551 against 1,477. On rating alone Hoogstraten would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Hoogstraten score more

    1.11 goals a game over 47 matches for Tienen, against 1.68 over 44 for Hoogstraten.

  • Defences are close

    Tienen concede 1.47 a game, Hoogstraten 1.48.

  • Hoogstraten games more often go over 2.5 goals

    51% of Tienen matches, against 59% for Hoogstraten. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Tienen
Hoogstraten
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1476.7
ELO
1550.8
47
ELO · Matches
44
1476.7
Current Team ELO
1550.8
1550.8
Current Opponent ELO
1476.7
-74.15
Current ELO Difference
74.15
0.39
Expected score
0.61
47
History Matches
44
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.05
48.80
Overperformance
53.69
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.60
1.80
Goals for per game
1.40
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.90
1.40
Goals for per game
2.10
1.60
Goals against per game
1.30
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
1.43
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.37
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.40
Overall performance9 signals
90
47
Matches
44
1.19
PPG
1.50
34.0%
Win rate
40.9%
17.0%
Draw rate
27.3%
48.9%
Loss rate
31.8%
76.6%
Over 1.5 rate
90.9%
51.1%
Over 2.5 rate
59.1%
23.4%
Over 3.5 rate
36.4%
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.83
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
23
1.56
PPG
1.22
48.0%
Win rate
30.4%
12.0%
Draw rate
30.4%
40.0%
Loss rate
39.1%
84.0%
Over 1.5 rate
95.7%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.9%
36.0%
Over 3.5 rate
34.8%
2.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.90
25
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.11
Goals for per game
1.68
61.7%
Scoring rate
77.3%
46.8%
BTTS rate
61.4%
1.40
Goals for per game
1.43
68.0%
Scoring rate
73.9%
52.0%
BTTS rate
65.2%
47
History Matches
44
1.11
Goals Mean
1.68
1.12
Goals Std
1.26
61.7%
Scored 1+ rate
77.3%
36.2%
Scored 2+ rate
56.8%
8.5%
Scored 3+ rate
25.0%
1.40
Venue Goals Mean
1.43
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.47
Goals against per game
1.48
76.6%
Conceding rate
81.8%
1.60
Goals against per game
1.74
80.0%
Conceding rate
91.3%
47
History Matches
44
1.47
Conceded Mean
1.48
1.18
Conceded Std
1.16
44.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.9%
19.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.9%
1.60
Venue Conceded Mean
1.74
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
23.4%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
38.3%
Failed-to-score rate
22.7%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
8.7%
32.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.1%
23.4%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
38.3%
Failed-to-score rate
22.7%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
8.7%
32.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.1%
23.4%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
47
History Matches
44
0.93
Result entropy
0.99
1.77
Goal Difference Std
1.83
7.34
Stability score
1.30
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
44
Eligible Matches
43
14
Lead Matches
16
85.7%
Lead Win Rate
68.8%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.77
12
Trailing Matches
11
0.0%
Non-loss rate
36.4%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
44
Halftime Coverage Matches
43
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.66
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
0.57
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.07
0.80
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.84
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
196.0
Rest days
196.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
24
Normal Rest History Matches
25
0.92
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.44
21
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.48
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.71
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.10
Portability PPG Std
0.35
0.23
Portability PPG Range
0.70
83.95
Portability Score
58.82
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
47
Clean History Matches
44
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-74.15
PPG-0.31
GF-0.58
GA-0.01
PPG0.34
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate5.2%
Failed-to-score rate15.6%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate11.3%
Failed-to-score rate5.9%
History Matches3
Goals Mean-0.58
Goals Std-0.14
Scored 1+ rate-0.16
Scored 2+ rate-0.21
Scored 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Goals Mean-0.03
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.05
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.01
Conceded Std0.02
Clean-sheet rate5.2%
Conceded 2+ rate3.8%
Conceded 3+ rate3.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.14
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.28
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.06
Stability score6.05
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.74
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate17.0%
Lead Points Retention0.11
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.36
Trailing Win Rate-0.09
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.25
Portability PPG Range-0.47
Portability Score25.12
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.52
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.23
Current Team ELO-74.15
Current Opponent ELO74.15
Current ELO Difference-148.3
Expected score-0.21
History Matches3
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-4.88
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Tienen

L
Thes Sport1–0Tienen30 Oct · away
Pick: Thes Sport 47% · hit
L
Tienen0–2Mandel United25 Oct · home
Pick: Tienen 41% · missed
L
Heist4–0Tienen21 Oct · away
Pick: Heist 55% · hit
D
Tienen0–0Merelbeke4 Oct · home
Pick: Merelbeke 37% · missed
L
Tienen3–4Dessel Sport30 Aug · home
Pick: Tienen 54% · missed

Hoogstraten

L
Hoogstraten0–1Spouwen-Mopertingen31 Oct · home
Pick: Spouwen-Mopertingen 42% · hit
W
Cercle Brugge II1–4Hoogstraten25 Oct · away
Pick: Hoogstraten 47% · hit
D
Hoogstraten1–1Roeselare Daisel17 Oct · home
Pick: Hoogstraten 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Tienen and Hoogstraten meet in First Amateur Division on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Tienen win 37.1%, draw 28.4%, Hoogstraten win 34.5%. The pick is Tienen win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.7%. Both teams to score: 55.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.