ScoreProb
Premier League Wales Round 16 2026

Haverfordwest County AFC vs Cardiff MET

Haverfordwest County AFC Home · Elo 1,499
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Cardiff MET Away · Elo 1,501
Bridge Meadow Stadium, Haverfordwest Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Haverfordwest County AFC win
Haverfordwest County AFC winPick
40.3%
Draw
22.9%
Cardiff MET win
36.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.3%
No43.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.0%
Under 2.543.0%

How much we know

Haverfordwest County AFC history58 matches
Cardiff MET history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Haverfordwest County AFC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,499 against 1,501. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.28 goals a game over 58 matches for Haverfordwest County AFC, against 1.38 over 55 for Cardiff MET.

  • Defences are close

    Haverfordwest County AFC concede 1.53 a game, Cardiff MET 1.53.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    53% of Haverfordwest County AFC matches, against 53% for Cardiff MET. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 21 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Haverfordwest County AFC
Cardiff MET
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1498.7
ELO
1501.1
58
ELO · Matches
55
1498.7
Current Team ELO
1501.1
1501.1
Current Opponent ELO
1498.7
-2.42
Current ELO Difference
2.42
0.50
Expected score
0.50
58
History Matches
55
0.00
Residual Mean
0.01
50.25
Overperformance
50.74
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.40
0.40
Goals for per game
1.60
2.00
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.40
1.00
Goals for per game
1.50
1.70
Goals against per game
1.60
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.79
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.75
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.27
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.43
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.76
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.55
Overall performance9 signals
90
58
Matches
55
1.24
PPG
1.25
34.5%
Win rate
29.1%
20.7%
Draw rate
38.2%
44.8%
Loss rate
32.7%
74.1%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
53.4%
Over 2.5 rate
52.7%
36.2%
Over 3.5 rate
38.2%
2.19
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.04
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
25
1.40
PPG
1.08
43.3%
Win rate
20.0%
10.0%
Draw rate
48.0%
46.7%
Loss rate
32.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
68.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
46.7%
Over 3.5 rate
28.0%
2.32
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.20
30
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.28
Goals for per game
1.38
69.0%
Scoring rate
69.1%
41.4%
BTTS rate
60.0%
1.70
Goals for per game
1.12
80.0%
Scoring rate
68.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
0.00
Goals for per game
2.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
58
History Matches
55
1.28
Goals Mean
1.38
1.28
Goals Std
1.37
69.0%
Scored 1+ rate
69.1%
34.5%
Scored 2+ rate
40.0%
13.8%
Scored 3+ rate
14.5%
1.70
Venue Goals Mean
1.12
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.53
Goals against per game
1.53
67.2%
Conceding rate
80.0%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.20
70.0%
Conceding rate
76.0%
2.25
Goals against per game
1.75
100.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
58
History Matches
55
1.53
Conceded Mean
1.53
1.43
Conceded Std
1.35
44.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.2%
29.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.2%
1.50
Venue Conceded Mean
1.20
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
32.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
31.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.9%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
32.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
32.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
31.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.9%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
32.0%
32.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
58
History Matches
55
0.96
Result entropy
0.99
2.19
Goal Difference Std
2.04
4.17
Stability score
0.57
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
58
Eligible Matches
55
13
Lead Matches
16
76.9%
Lead Win Rate
56.3%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.69
18
Trailing Matches
19
22.2%
Non-loss rate
52.6%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
21.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.47
First Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
0.81
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.93
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.91
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.67
23
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.30
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.44
30
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.17
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.19
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.00
PPG
1.50
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.70
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
-2.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.25
8
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.74
Portability PPG Std
0.33
2.00
Portability PPG Range
0.82
40.36
Portability Score
60.00
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
58
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-2.42
PPG-0.01
GF-0.11
GA0.01
PPG-1.50
PPG0.32
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate12.8%
Failed-to-score rate0.1%
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate6.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches3
Goals Mean-0.11
Goals Std-0.08
Scored 1+ rate0.00
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.58
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.04
History Matches3
Conceded Mean0.01
Conceded Std0.08
Clean-sheet rate12.8%
Conceded 2+ rate6.6%
Conceded 3+ rate11.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.16
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std0.15
Stability score3.60
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.21
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate20.7%
Lead Points Retention0.13
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.30
Trailing Win Rate-0.21
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.50
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.41
Portability PPG Range1.18
Portability Score-19.64
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.83
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.14
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.03
Current Team ELO-2.42
Current Opponent ELO2.42
Current ELO Difference-4.84
Expected score-0.01
History Matches3
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.48
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Haverfordwest County AFC

W
Ammanford AFC0–1Haverfordwest County AFC30 Oct · away
Pick: Ammanford AFC 48% · missed
W
Barry Town1–3Haverfordwest County AFC24 Oct · away
Pick: Barry Town 66% · missed
W
Haverfordwest County AFC4–0Cardiff Corinthians17 Oct · home
Pick: Haverfordwest County AFC 62% · hit
W
Haverfordwest County AFC2–1Trefelin31 Aug · home
Pick: Haverfordwest County AFC 60% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Cardiff MET

L
Cardiff MET0–5Penybont31 Oct · home
Pick: Penybont 44% · hit
D
Colwyn Bay2–2Cardiff MET23 Oct · away
Pick: Colwyn Bay 50% · missed
W
Cardiff MET4–0Ynyshir Albions16 Oct · home
Pick: Cardiff MET 59% · hit
W
Ammanford AFC0–5Cardiff MET31 Aug · away
Pick: Cardiff MET 43% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Haverfordwest County AFC and Cardiff MET meet in Premier League on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. The match is played at Bridge Meadow Stadium, Haverfordwest. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Haverfordwest County AFC win 40.3%, draw 22.9%, Cardiff MET win 36.8%. The pick is Haverfordwest County AFC win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.0%. Both teams to score: 56.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.