ScoreProb
Premier League Wales Round 16 2026

Cambrian & Clydach vs Barry Town

Cambrian & Clydach Home · Elo 1,648
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Barry Town Away · Elo 1,653
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Barry Town win
Cambrian & Clydach win
32.7%
Draw
26.9%
Barry Town winPick
40.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.5%
No45.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.3%
Under 2.544.7%

How much we know

Cambrian & Clydach history53 matches
Barry Town history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Barry Town are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,648 against 1,653. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    2.08 goals a game over 53 matches for Cambrian & Clydach, against 1.89 over 64 for Barry Town.

  • Defences are close

    Cambrian & Clydach concede 0.92 a game, Barry Town 1.02.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    58% of Cambrian & Clydach matches, against 55% for Barry Town. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 21 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Cambrian & Clydach
Barry Town
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1647.5
ELO
1653.3
53
ELO · Matches
64
1647.5
Current Team ELO
1653.3
1653.3
Current Opponent ELO
1647.5
-5.78
Current ELO Difference
5.78
0.49
Expected score
0.51
53
History Matches
64
0.14
Residual Mean
0.11
60.32
Overperformance
58.56
0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.25
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.40
1.60
Goals for per game
1.80
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
2.70
1.70
Goals for per game
2.30
0.90
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
90.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.35
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.22
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.63
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.30
1.47
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.19
Overall performance9 signals
90
53
Matches
64
2.13
PPG
1.92
64.2%
Win rate
57.8%
20.8%
Draw rate
18.8%
15.1%
Loss rate
23.4%
83.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
58.5%
Over 2.5 rate
54.7%
39.6%
Over 3.5 rate
37.5%
2.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.96
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
34
2.11
PPG
1.85
64.3%
Win rate
55.9%
17.9%
Draw rate
17.6%
17.9%
Loss rate
26.5%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
88.2%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
58.8%
35.7%
Over 3.5 rate
41.2%
2.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.08
28
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.08
Goals for per game
1.89
86.8%
Scoring rate
81.3%
43.4%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.93
Goals for per game
1.97
89.3%
Scoring rate
88.2%
39.3%
BTTS rate
55.9%
1.50
Goals for per game
2.25
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
53
History Matches
64
2.08
Goals Mean
1.89
1.44
Goals Std
1.50
86.8%
Scored 1+ rate
81.3%
62.3%
Scored 2+ rate
54.7%
32.1%
Scored 3+ rate
28.1%
1.93
Venue Goals Mean
1.97
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.92
Goals against per game
1.02
49.1%
Conceding rate
60.9%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.26
50.0%
Conceding rate
61.8%
0.75
Goals against per game
1.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
53
History Matches
64
0.92
Conceded Mean
1.02
1.18
Conceded Std
1.12
28.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
23.4%
9.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.5%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.26
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
50.9%
Clean-sheet rate
39.1%
13.2%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
38.2%
10.7%
Failed-to-score rate
11.8%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
50.9%
Clean-sheet rate
39.1%
13.2%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
38.2%
10.7%
Failed-to-score rate
11.8%
50.9%
Clean-sheet rate
39.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
53
History Matches
64
0.82
Result entropy
0.88
2.04
Goal Difference Std
1.96
18.39
Stability score
11.64
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
53
Eligible Matches
64
20
Lead Matches
28
85.0%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.89
7
Trailing Matches
12
42.9%
Non-loss rate
8.3%
28.6%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
64
0.92
First Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
1.15
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.05
0.45
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
2
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
27
Normal Rest History Matches
38
2.19
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.05
21
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.95
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.65
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.75
PPG
3.00
50.0%
Win rate
100.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.43
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.75
Current Competition PPG
3.00
0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.25
7
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.40
Portability PPG Std
0.57
1.20
Portability PPG Range
1.58
55.52
Portability Score
46.81
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
53
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-5.78
PPG0.21
GF0.18
GA-0.09
PPG-1.25
PPG0.25
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate11.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate11.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches-11
Goals Mean0.18
Goals Std-0.06
Scored 1+ rate5.5%
Scored 2+ rate7.6%
Scored 3+ rate4.0%
Venue Goals Mean-0.04
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.45
History Matches-11
Conceded Mean-0.09
Conceded Std0.05
Clean-sheet rate11.9%
Conceded 2+ rate4.9%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.26
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.59
History Matches-11
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std0.08
Stability score6.75
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.57
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.28
Eligible Matches-11
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate-0.01
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate34.5%
Trailing Win Rate20.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches-11
First Half Goals For Mean0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.17
Portability PPG Range-0.38
Portability Score8.72
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-11
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.13
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.30
Current Team ELO-5.78
Current Opponent ELO5.78
Current ELO Difference-11.55
Expected score-0.02
History Matches-11
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance1.76
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.25

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Cambrian & Clydach

L
Colwyn Bay2–0Cambrian & Clydach30 Oct · away
Pick: Cambrian & Clydach 36% · missed
L
Cambrian & Clydach2–3Airbus UK23 Oct · home
Pick: Cambrian & Clydach 55% · missed
W
Cambrian & Clydach5–0Trethomas Bluebirds16 Oct · home
Pick: Cambrian & Clydach 69% · hit
D
Cambrian & Clydach2–2Penybont31 Aug · home
Pick: Cambrian & Clydach 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Barry Town

W
Barry Town3–0Trefelin30 Oct · home
Pick: Barry Town 69% · hit
L
Barry Town1–3Haverfordwest County AFC24 Oct · home
Pick: Barry Town 66% · missed
W
Barry Town2–0Tredegar Town17 Oct · home
Pick: Barry Town 72% · hit
W
Briton Ferry1–4Barry Town31 Aug · away
Pick: Barry Town 42% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Cambrian & Clydach and Barry Town meet in Premier League on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Cambrian & Clydach win 32.7%, draw 26.9%, Barry Town win 40.4%. The pick is Barry Town win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.3%. Both teams to score: 54.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.