ScoreProb
Premier League Wales Round 16 2026

Trefelin vs Colwyn Bay

Trefelin Home · Elo 1,624
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Colwyn Bay Away · Elo 1,580
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Colwyn Bay win
Trefelin win
28.6%
Draw
20.4%
Colwyn Bay winPick
51.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.9%
No45.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.9%
Under 2.536.1%

How much we know

Trefelin history47 matches
Colwyn Bay history61 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.0%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Colwyn Bay are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Trefelin are rated 43 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,624 against 1,580. On rating alone Trefelin would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Trefelin score more

    2.38 goals a game over 47 matches for Trefelin, against 1.56 over 61 for Colwyn Bay.

  • Defences are close

    Trefelin concede 1.26 a game, Colwyn Bay 1.13.

  • Trefelin games more often go over 2.5 goals

    66% of Trefelin matches, against 51% for Colwyn Bay. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 21 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Trefelin
Colwyn Bay
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1623.6
ELO
1580.2
47
ELO · Matches
61
1623.6
Current Team ELO
1580.2
1580.2
Current Opponent ELO
1623.6
43.38
Current ELO Difference
-43.38
0.56
Expected score
0.44
47
History Matches
61
0.12
Residual Mean
0.07
58.67
Overperformance
54.99
-0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
2.00
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
2.80
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.70
2.60
Goals for per game
1.60
2.00
Goals against per game
1.30
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
2.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.95
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
4.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.90
Overall performance9 signals
90
47
Matches
61
2.11
PPG
1.69
66.0%
Win rate
49.2%
12.8%
Draw rate
21.3%
21.3%
Loss rate
29.5%
95.7%
Over 1.5 rate
70.5%
66.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.8%
51.1%
Over 3.5 rate
31.1%
2.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.81
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
30
1.82
PPG
1.60
54.5%
Win rate
46.7%
18.2%
Draw rate
20.0%
27.3%
Loss rate
33.3%
95.5%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
68.2%
Over 2.5 rate
43.3%
54.5%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
2.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.95
22
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.38
Goals for per game
1.56
80.9%
Scoring rate
73.8%
42.6%
BTTS rate
44.3%
2.14
Goals for per game
1.30
77.3%
Scoring rate
66.7%
36.4%
BTTS rate
33.3%
0.00
Goals for per game
1.25
0.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
47
History Matches
61
2.38
Goals Mean
1.56
1.79
Goals Std
1.37
80.9%
Scored 1+ rate
73.8%
70.2%
Scored 2+ rate
42.6%
44.7%
Scored 3+ rate
26.2%
2.14
Venue Goals Mean
1.30
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.26
Goals against per game
1.13
59.6%
Conceding rate
63.9%
1.45
Goals against per game
1.00
54.5%
Conceding rate
60.0%
3.50
Goals against per game
1.25
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
47
History Matches
61
1.26
Conceded Mean
1.13
1.51
Conceded Std
1.12
31.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.8%
17.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.5%
1.45
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
40.4%
Clean-sheet rate
36.1%
19.1%
Failed-to-score rate
26.2%
45.5%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
22.7%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
40.4%
Clean-sheet rate
36.1%
19.1%
Failed-to-score rate
26.2%
45.5%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
22.7%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
40.4%
Clean-sheet rate
36.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
47
History Matches
61
0.79
Result entropy
0.95
2.78
Goal Difference Std
1.81
21.13
Stability score
5.46
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
47
Eligible Matches
61
20
Lead Matches
27
95.0%
Lead Win Rate
96.3%
0.97
Lead Points Retention
0.98
14
Trailing Matches
14
35.7%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
47
Halftime Coverage Matches
61
0.96
First Half Goals For Mean
0.93
0.72
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
1.43
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.53
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
3
2.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.33
19
Normal Rest History Matches
37
2.21
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.54
23
Long Rest History Matches
20
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.90
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.00
PPG
1.75
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.75
-3.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
5
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.94
Portability PPG Std
0.58
2.60
Portability PPG Range
1.80
34.75
Portability Score
46.24
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
47
Clean History Matches
61
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO43.38
PPG0.42
GF0.83
GA0.12
PPG-1.75
PPG0.22
PPG-1.40
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-14
Clean-sheet rate4.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate5.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches-14
Goals Mean0.83
Goals Std0.42
Scored 1+ rate7.1%
Scored 2+ rate27.6%
Scored 3+ rate18.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.84
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std1.67
History Matches-14
Conceded Mean0.12
Conceded Std0.39
Clean-sheet rate4.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate5.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.45
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.85
History Matches-14
Result entropy-0.16
Goal Difference Std0.97
Stability score15.67
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.31
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std2.60
Eligible Matches-14
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate-0.01
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate21.4%
Trailing Win Rate7.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches-14
First Half Goals For Mean0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean0.22
Second Half Goals For Mean0.80
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-3.50
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std0.36
Portability PPG Range0.80
Portability Score-11.49
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.17
Normal Rest History Matches-18
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.67
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.10
Current Team ELO43.38
Current Opponent ELO-43.38
Current ELO Difference86.76
Expected score0.12
History Matches-14
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance3.68
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.22

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Trefelin

L
Barry Town3–0Trefelin30 Oct · away
Pick: Barry Town 69% · hit
L
Trefelin0–2Flint Town United23 Oct · home
Pick: Flint Town United 44% · hit
W
Trefelin4–1Llantwit Major17 Oct · home
Pick: Trefelin 54% · hit
L
Haverfordwest County AFC2–1Trefelin31 Aug · away
Pick: Haverfordwest County AFC 60% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Colwyn Bay

W
Colwyn Bay2–0Cambrian & Clydach30 Oct · home
Pick: Cambrian & Clydach 36% · missed
D
Colwyn Bay2–2Cardiff MET23 Oct · home
Pick: Colwyn Bay 50% · missed
D
Buckley Town2–2Colwyn Bay17 Oct · away
Pick: Colwyn Bay 61% · missed
W
Colwyn Bay2–0Llandudno31 Aug · home
Pick: Llandudno 50% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Trefelin and Colwyn Bay meet in Premier League on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Trefelin win 28.6%, draw 20.4%, Colwyn Bay win 51.0%. The pick is Colwyn Bay win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.9%. Both teams to score: 54.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.