ScoreProb
Oberliga - Hamburg Germany Hamburg - 15 2026

Nikola Tesla vs Paloma

Nikola Tesla Home · Elo 1,453
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Paloma Away · Elo 1,573
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Paloma win
Nikola Tesla win
20.5%
Draw
16.8%
Paloma winPick
62.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes66.0%
No34.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.577.7%
Under 2.522.3%

How much we know

Nikola Tesla history37 matches
Paloma history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (62.6%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Paloma are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Paloma are rated 120 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,573 against 1,453. On rating alone Paloma would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.

  • Paloma score more

    2.00 goals a game over 37 matches for Nikola Tesla, against 2.58 over 55 for Paloma.

  • Paloma concede fewer

    Nikola Tesla concede 2.73 a game, Paloma 1.49.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    84% of Nikola Tesla matches, against 78% for Paloma. The model puts this match at 78% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Nikola Tesla
Paloma
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1452.7
ELO
1572.8
37
ELO · Matches
55
1452.7
Current Team ELO
1572.8
1572.8
Current Opponent ELO
1452.7
-120.1
Current ELO Difference
120.1
0.33
Expected score
0.67
37
History Matches
55
-0.06
Residual Mean
0.07
45.82
Overperformance
54.84
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.40
2.60
Goals for per game
2.40
2.40
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.40
1.90
Goals for per game
2.50
2.50
Goals against per game
1.80
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.50
2.26
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.75
2.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.57
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.69
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.76
Overall performance9 signals
90
37
Matches
55
1.11
PPG
1.84
32.4%
Win rate
54.5%
13.5%
Draw rate
20.0%
54.1%
Loss rate
25.5%
94.6%
Over 1.5 rate
90.9%
83.8%
Over 2.5 rate
78.2%
64.9%
Over 3.5 rate
61.8%
3.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.35
Venue performance10 signals
100
18
Matches
27
0.89
PPG
1.85
27.8%
Win rate
55.6%
5.6%
Draw rate
18.5%
66.7%
Loss rate
25.9%
94.4%
Over 1.5 rate
92.6%
83.3%
Over 2.5 rate
81.5%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
70.4%
3.32
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.69
18
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.00
Goals for per game
2.58
75.7%
Scoring rate
89.1%
73.0%
BTTS rate
69.1%
1.61
Goals for per game
2.85
66.7%
Scoring rate
88.9%
61.1%
BTTS rate
66.7%
1.25
Goals for per game
2.75
75.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
37
History Matches
55
2.00
Goals Mean
2.58
1.92
Goals Std
1.74
75.7%
Scored 1+ rate
89.1%
43.2%
Scored 2+ rate
72.7%
37.8%
Scored 3+ rate
47.3%
1.61
Venue Goals Mean
2.85
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.73
Goals against per game
1.49
97.3%
Conceding rate
78.2%
3.00
Goals against per game
1.59
94.4%
Conceding rate
74.1%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.75
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
37
History Matches
55
2.73
Conceded Mean
1.49
1.94
Conceded Std
1.20
70.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.8%
37.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.8%
3.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.59
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
2.7%
Clean-sheet rate
21.8%
24.3%
Failed-to-score rate
10.9%
5.6%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
2.7%
Clean-sheet rate
21.8%
24.3%
Failed-to-score rate
10.9%
5.6%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
2.7%
Clean-sheet rate
21.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
37
History Matches
55
0.88
Result entropy
0.91
3.05
Goal Difference Std
2.35
11.87
Stability score
8.90
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
37
Eligible Matches
55
11
Lead Matches
26
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
76.9%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.83
17
Trailing Matches
9
17.6%
Non-loss rate
22.2%
5.9%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
37
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.81
First Half Goals For Mean
1.07
1.14
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
1.19
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.51
1.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.87
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.20
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
7
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.57
19
Normal Rest History Matches
23
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.78
17
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.12
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.71
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.00
PPG
1.75
25.0%
Win rate
50.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
75.0%
2.17
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.75
-0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
2
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.06
Portability PPG Std
0.14
0.12
Portability PPG Range
0.31
89.19
Portability Score
78.36
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
37
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-120.1
PPG-0.73
GF-0.58
GA1.24
PPG-0.75
PPG-0.96
PPG0.00
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-18
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Failed-to-score rate13.4%
History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate-0.20
Failed-to-score rate22.2%
History Matches-18
Goals Mean-0.58
Goals Std0.17
Scored 1+ rate-0.13
Scored 2+ rate-0.29
Scored 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Goals Mean-1.24
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.51
History Matches-18
Conceded Mean1.24
Conceded Std0.74
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Conceded 2+ rate28.5%
Conceded 3+ rate16.0%
Venue Conceded Mean1.41
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.40
History Matches-18
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.71
Stability score2.97
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.07
Eligible Matches-18
Lead Matches-15
Lead Win Rate23.1%
Lead Points Retention0.17
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate-0.05
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches-18
First Half Goals For Mean-0.26
First Half Goals Against Mean0.52
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.32
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.72
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.75
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.08
Portability PPG Range-0.19
Portability Score10.83
Rest days-0.16
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.78
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.59
Current Team ELO-120.1
Current Opponent ELO120.1
Current ELO Difference-240.2
Expected score-0.33
History Matches-18
Residual Mean-0.13
Overperformance-9.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Nikola Tesla

L
Nikola Tesla1–2HEBC1 Nov · home
Pick: HEBC 48% · hit
L
Norderstedt II2–1Nikola Tesla23 Oct · away
Pick: Nikola Tesla 50% · missed
W
Nikola Tesla6–1Buchholz4 Oct · home
Pick: Buchholz 49% · missed
L
Sasel3–2Nikola Tesla30 Aug · away
Pick: Sasel 64% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Paloma

W
Paloma5–2Norderstedt II1 Nov · home
Pick: Paloma 87% · hit
W
Harksheide0–2Paloma23 Oct · away
Pick: Paloma 65% · hit
D
Paloma2–2Altona 9317 Oct · home
Pick: Paloma 70% · missed
L
Paloma1–4ETSV Hamburg4 Oct · home
Pick: Paloma 46% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Nikola Tesla and Paloma meet in Oberliga - Hamburg on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Nikola Tesla win 20.5%, draw 16.8%, Paloma win 62.6%. The pick is Paloma win. Over 2.5 goals: 77.7%. Both teams to score: 66.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.