ScoreProb
Regionalliga - Nordost Germany Nordost - 16 2026

Hertha BSC II vs Magdeburg II

Hertha BSC II Home · Elo 1,473
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Magdeburg II Away · Elo 1,570
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Magdeburg II win
Hertha BSC II win
27.1%
Draw
18.6%
Magdeburg II winPick
54.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes63.6%
No36.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.570.7%
Under 2.529.3%

How much we know

Hertha BSC II history58 matches
Magdeburg II history60 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.2%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Magdeburg II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Magdeburg II are rated 97 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,570 against 1,473. On rating alone Magdeburg II would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Magdeburg II score more

    1.57 goals a game over 58 matches for Hertha BSC II, against 2.28 over 60 for Magdeburg II.

  • Magdeburg II concede fewer

    Hertha BSC II concede 1.86 a game, Magdeburg II 1.45.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    66% of Hertha BSC II matches, against 68% for Magdeburg II. The model puts this match at 71% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hertha BSC II
Magdeburg II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1472.9
ELO
1569.8
58
ELO · Matches
60
1472.9
Current Team ELO
1569.8
1569.8
Current Opponent ELO
1472.9
-96.86
Current ELO Difference
96.86
0.36
Expected score
0.64
58
History Matches
60
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.06
48.62
Overperformance
54.60
-0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.40
1.00
Goals for per game
1.60
2.60
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.50
1.10
Goals for per game
2.00
2.10
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.34
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.37
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.60
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.95
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.09
Overall performance9 signals
90
58
Matches
60
1.21
PPG
1.87
34.5%
Win rate
58.3%
17.2%
Draw rate
11.7%
48.3%
Loss rate
30.0%
79.3%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
65.5%
Over 2.5 rate
68.3%
51.7%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.39
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.20
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
28
1.37
PPG
1.82
40.0%
Win rate
57.1%
16.7%
Draw rate
10.7%
43.3%
Loss rate
32.1%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
56.7%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.25
30
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.57
Goals for per game
2.28
72.4%
Scoring rate
86.7%
58.6%
BTTS rate
63.3%
2.07
Goals for per game
2.18
76.7%
Scoring rate
89.3%
60.0%
BTTS rate
60.7%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.17
80.0%
Scoring rate
83.3%
80.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
58
History Matches
60
1.57
Goals Mean
2.28
1.53
Goals Std
1.68
72.4%
Scored 1+ rate
86.7%
43.1%
Scored 2+ rate
60.0%
20.7%
Scored 3+ rate
40.0%
2.07
Venue Goals Mean
2.18
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.86
Goals against per game
1.45
82.8%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.73
Goals against per game
1.50
80.0%
Conceding rate
67.9%
2.60
Goals against per game
1.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
83.3%
58
History Matches
60
1.86
Conceded Mean
1.45
1.55
Conceded Std
1.33
46.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.7%
32.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.0%
1.73
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
17.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
27.6%
Failed-to-score rate
13.3%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
10.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
17.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
27.6%
Failed-to-score rate
13.3%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
10.7%
17.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
58
History Matches
60
0.93
Result entropy
0.84
2.39
Goal Difference Std
2.20
6.99
Stability score
15.69
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
58
Eligible Matches
60
16
Lead Matches
25
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
88.0%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.89
24
Trailing Matches
19
8.3%
Non-loss rate
31.6%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
21.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
60
0.69
First Half Goals For Mean
0.97
0.84
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.32
1.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
85.83
Rest days
74.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.25
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
32
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.22
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.13
21
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.10
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.73
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
6
0.80
PPG
1.67
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
16.7%
60.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.22
5
Current Competition Matches
6
0.80
Current Competition PPG
1.67
-1.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
4
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.55
Portability PPG Std
0.60
1.45
Portability PPG Range
1.56
47.84
Portability Score
45.46
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
58
Clean History Matches
60
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-96.86
PPG-0.66
GF-0.71
GA0.41
PPG-0.87
PPG-0.45
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate14.3%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate12.6%
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.71
Goals Std-0.15
Scored 1+ rate-0.14
Scored 2+ rate-0.17
Scored 3+ rate-0.19
Venue Goals Mean-0.11
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.51
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.41
Conceded Std0.21
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Conceded 2+ rate9.9%
Conceded 3+ rate12.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.23
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.23
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.09
Goal Difference Std0.19
Stability score-8.70
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.14
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate-0.13
Lead Points Retention-0.10
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate-0.23
Trailing Win Rate-0.21
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.28
First Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.44
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.27
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.87
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.10
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.05
Portability PPG Range-0.11
Portability Score2.38
Rest days11.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.25
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.91
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.64
Current Team ELO-96.86
Current Opponent ELO96.86
Current ELO Difference-193.7
Expected score-0.27
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-5.98
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Hertha BSC II

D
Luckenwalde1–1Hertha BSC II30 Oct · away
Pick: Luckenwalde 45% · missed
L
BSG Chemie Leipzig2–0Hertha BSC II25 Oct · away
Pick: BSG Chemie Leipzig 50% · hit
L
Hertha BSC II0–1RSV Eintracht16 Oct · home
Pick: RSV Eintracht 54% · hit
L
Hertha BSC II0–2Hallescher FC29 Aug · home
Pick: Hallescher FC 52% · hit
D
Erzgebirge Aue0–0Hertha BSC II26 Aug · away
Pick: Erzgebirge Aue 63% · missed

Magdeburg II

D
Magdeburg II1–1Hallescher FC31 Oct · home
Pick: Magdeburg II 49% · missed
W
Chemnitzer FC1–2Magdeburg II24 Oct · away
Pick: Chemnitzer FC 64% · missed
W
Magdeburg II4–2Greifswalder FC18 Oct · home
Pick: Magdeburg II 39% · hit
W
RSV Eintracht2–4Magdeburg II30 Aug · away
Pick: RSV Eintracht 48% · missed
W
Magdeburg II1–0BSG Chemie Leipzig25 Aug · home
Pick: Magdeburg II 61% · hit

About this match

Hertha BSC II and Magdeburg II meet in Regionalliga - Nordost on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Hertha BSC II win 27.1%, draw 18.6%, Magdeburg II win 54.2%. The pick is Magdeburg II win. Over 2.5 goals: 70.7%. Both teams to score: 63.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.