ScoreProb
Regionalliga - Nordost Germany Nordost - 16 2026

FSV Zwickau vs Lokomotive Leipzig

FSV Zwickau Home · Elo 1,597
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Lokomotive Leipzig Away · Elo 1,599
GGZ-Arena Zwickau Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Lokomotive Leipzig win
FSV Zwickau win
34.4%
Draw
24.4%
Lokomotive Leipzig winPick
41.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.2%
No44.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.6%
Under 2.542.4%

How much we know

FSV Zwickau history64 matches
Lokomotive Leipzig history66 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Lokomotive Leipzig are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,597 against 1,599. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Lokomotive Leipzig score more

    1.66 goals a game over 64 matches for FSV Zwickau, against 1.86 over 66 for Lokomotive Leipzig.

  • Lokomotive Leipzig concede fewer

    FSV Zwickau concede 1.36 a game, Lokomotive Leipzig 1.02.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    58% of FSV Zwickau matches, against 56% for Lokomotive Leipzig. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FSV Zwickau
Lokomotive Leipzig
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1596.8
ELO
1598.6
64
ELO · Matches
66
1596.8
Current Team ELO
1598.6
1598.6
Current Opponent ELO
1596.8
-1.79
Current ELO Difference
1.79
0.50
Expected score
0.50
64
History Matches
66
0.07
Residual Mean
0.08
55.38
Overperformance
55.90
-0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.40
1.00
Goals for per game
1.80
1.60
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.40
2.30
Goals for per game
1.90
2.20
Goals against per game
1.90
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
2.24
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.04
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
1.25
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.41
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
66
1.84
PPG
1.91
54.7%
Win rate
57.6%
20.3%
Draw rate
18.2%
25.0%
Loss rate
24.2%
76.6%
Over 1.5 rate
75.8%
57.8%
Over 2.5 rate
56.1%
32.8%
Over 3.5 rate
30.3%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
31
2.39
PPG
1.90
71.0%
Win rate
58.1%
25.8%
Draw rate
16.1%
3.2%
Loss rate
25.8%
71.0%
Over 1.5 rate
74.2%
51.6%
Over 2.5 rate
58.1%
29.0%
Over 3.5 rate
29.0%
1.39
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.78
31
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.66
Goals for per game
1.86
81.3%
Scoring rate
81.8%
51.6%
BTTS rate
47.0%
1.94
Goals for per game
1.87
93.5%
Scoring rate
83.9%
51.6%
BTTS rate
54.8%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
60.0%
Scoring rate
83.3%
60.0%
BTTS rate
83.3%
64
History Matches
66
1.66
Goals Mean
1.86
1.38
Goals Std
1.51
81.3%
Scored 1+ rate
81.8%
54.7%
Scored 2+ rate
48.5%
12.5%
Scored 3+ rate
34.8%
1.94
Venue Goals Mean
1.87
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.36
Goals against per game
1.02
65.6%
Conceding rate
59.1%
0.87
Goals against per game
1.13
54.8%
Conceding rate
67.7%
1.60
Goals against per game
1.83
80.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
64
History Matches
66
1.36
Conceded Mean
1.02
1.29
Conceded Std
1.01
40.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
23.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.1%
0.87
Venue Conceded Mean
1.13
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
34.4%
Clean-sheet rate
40.9%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
45.2%
Clean-sheet rate
32.3%
6.5%
Failed-to-score rate
16.1%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
34.4%
Clean-sheet rate
40.9%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
45.2%
Clean-sheet rate
32.3%
6.5%
Failed-to-score rate
16.1%
34.4%
Clean-sheet rate
40.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
66
0.91
Result entropy
0.88
1.83
Goal Difference Std
1.82
8.94
Stability score
11.58
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
61
Eligible Matches
64
22
Lead Matches
28
86.4%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.89
10
Trailing Matches
10
20.0%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
61
Halftime Coverage Matches
64
0.77
First Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
0.89
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.05
0.79
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
85.83
Rest days
74.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
2
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
35
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.91
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.03
22
Long Rest History Matches
32
1.73
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.84
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
6
1.40
PPG
1.67
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
16.7%
40.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
83.3%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.34
5
Current Competition Matches
6
1.40
Current Competition PPG
1.67
-0.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.17
5
Competition Season Count
8
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.56
Portability PPG Std
0.25
1.60
Portability PPG Range
0.53
47.38
Portability Score
66.91
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
66
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-1.79
PPG-0.07
GF-0.21
GA0.34
PPG-0.27
PPG0.48
PPG0.00
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate0.6%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate12.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.21
Goals Std-0.12
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate6.2%
Scored 3+ rate-0.22
Venue Goals Mean0.06
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std1.19
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.34
Conceded Std0.28
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Conceded 2+ rate7.3%
Conceded 3+ rate14.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.26
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.31
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.01
Stability score-2.64
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.70
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate0.6%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.20
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.18
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.27
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.77
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.31
Portability PPG Range1.07
Portability Score-19.53
Rest days11.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match1.50
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.12
Long Rest History Matches-10
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.12
Current Team ELO-1.79
Current Opponent ELO1.79
Current ELO Difference-3.58
Expected score-0.01
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.53
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FSV Zwickau

L
BFC Preussen3–0FSV Zwickau31 Oct · away
Pick: FSV Zwickau 39% · missed
L
FSV Zwickau0–3Erzgebirge Aue24 Oct · home
Pick: Erzgebirge Aue 39% · hit
D
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt2–2FSV Zwickau16 Oct · away
Pick: FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 65% · missed
W
FSV Zwickau1–0SV Babelsberg 0329 Aug · home
Pick: FSV Zwickau 47% · hit
W
RSV Eintracht1–2FSV Zwickau26 Aug · away
Pick: RSV Eintracht 57% · missed

Lokomotive Leipzig

W
Lokomotive Leipzig3–1Altglienicke30 Oct · home
Pick: Lokomotive Leipzig 36% · hit
D
Hallescher FC2–2Lokomotive Leipzig25 Oct · away
Pick: Hallescher FC 36% · missed
D
Lokomotive Leipzig2–2BSG Chemie Leipzig17 Oct · home
Pick: Lokomotive Leipzig 60% · missed
L
Lokomotive Leipzig1–2Erzgebirge Aue30 Aug · home
Pick: Lokomotive Leipzig 48% · missed
L
Lokomotive Leipzig0–2Chemnitzer FC25 Aug · home
Pick: Chemnitzer FC 41% · hit

About this match

FSV Zwickau and Lokomotive Leipzig meet in Regionalliga - Nordost on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at GGZ-Arena Zwickau. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: FSV Zwickau win 34.4%, draw 24.4%, Lokomotive Leipzig win 41.2%. The pick is Lokomotive Leipzig win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.6%. Both teams to score: 55.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.