ScoreProb
Regionalliga - Nordost Germany Nordost - 16 2026

RSV Eintracht vs Erzgebirge Aue

RSV Eintracht Home · Elo 1,631
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Erzgebirge Aue Away · Elo 1,489
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: RSV Eintracht win
RSV Eintracht winPick
43.9%
Draw
23.2%
Erzgebirge Aue win
32.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.0%
No39.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.567.2%
Under 2.532.8%

How much we know

RSV Eintracht history59 matches
Erzgebirge Aue history71 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why RSV Eintracht are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • RSV Eintracht are rated 142 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,631 against 1,489. On rating alone RSV Eintracht would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.

  • RSV Eintracht score more

    2.12 goals a game over 59 matches for RSV Eintracht, against 1.52 over 71 for Erzgebirge Aue.

  • RSV Eintracht concede fewer

    RSV Eintracht concede 1.27 a game, Erzgebirge Aue 1.76.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    66% of RSV Eintracht matches, against 65% for Erzgebirge Aue. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
RSV Eintracht
Erzgebirge Aue
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1630.8
ELO
1488.5
59
ELO · Matches
71
1630.8
Current Team ELO
1488.5
1488.5
Current Opponent ELO
1630.8
142.2
Current ELO Difference
-142.2
0.69
Expected score
0.31
59
History Matches
71
0.12
Residual Mean
0.00
58.59
Overperformance
49.97
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.26
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.80
1.60
Goals for per game
1.60
1.80
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.90
1.70
Goals for per game
2.50
1.10
Goals against per game
1.80
50.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.50
1.19
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.75
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.54
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.85
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.72
Overall performance9 signals
90
59
Matches
71
1.98
PPG
1.20
57.6%
Win rate
32.4%
25.4%
Draw rate
22.5%
16.9%
Loss rate
45.1%
83.1%
Over 1.5 rate
83.1%
66.1%
Over 2.5 rate
64.8%
45.8%
Over 3.5 rate
40.8%
2.02
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
33
2.50
PPG
0.91
78.1%
Win rate
24.2%
15.6%
Draw rate
18.2%
6.3%
Loss rate
57.6%
90.6%
Over 1.5 rate
84.8%
78.1%
Over 2.5 rate
63.6%
56.3%
Over 3.5 rate
42.4%
1.96
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
32
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.12
Goals for per game
1.52
84.7%
Scoring rate
78.9%
66.1%
BTTS rate
63.4%
2.53
Goals for per game
1.42
93.8%
Scoring rate
84.8%
71.9%
BTTS rate
69.7%
1.60
Goals for per game
2.20
80.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
80.0%
59
History Matches
71
2.12
Goals Mean
1.52
1.60
Goals Std
1.32
84.7%
Scored 1+ rate
78.9%
57.6%
Scored 2+ rate
43.7%
42.4%
Scored 3+ rate
15.5%
2.53
Venue Goals Mean
1.42
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.27
Goals against per game
1.76
74.6%
Conceding rate
77.5%
1.19
Goals against per game
1.94
75.0%
Conceding rate
81.8%
1.80
Goals against per game
1.80
80.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
59
History Matches
71
1.27
Conceded Mean
1.76
1.25
Conceded Std
1.36
30.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
54.9%
11.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
29.6%
1.19
Venue Conceded Mean
1.94
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.4%
Clean-sheet rate
22.5%
15.3%
Failed-to-score rate
21.1%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
6.3%
Failed-to-score rate
15.2%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.4%
Clean-sheet rate
22.5%
15.3%
Failed-to-score rate
21.1%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
6.3%
Failed-to-score rate
15.2%
25.4%
Clean-sheet rate
22.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
59
History Matches
71
0.88
Result entropy
0.96
2.02
Goal Difference Std
1.86
12.01
Stability score
3.50
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
56
Eligible Matches
70
24
Lead Matches
24
91.7%
Lead Win Rate
79.2%
0.94
Lead Points Retention
0.82
10
Trailing Matches
27
50.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
7.4%
Goal timing5 signals
50
56
Halftime Coverage Matches
70
1.04
First Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.91
1.13
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.84
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
85.83
Rest days
77.98
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
4
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.25
29
Normal Rest History Matches
43
1.76
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.02
26
Long Rest History Matches
23
2.15
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.39
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
60.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
2.23
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.20
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.40
6
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.53
Portability PPG Std
0.53
1.51
Portability PPG Range
1.36
48.32
Portability Score
48.60
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
59
Clean History Matches
71
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO142.2
PPG0.79
GF0.60
GA-0.49
PPG-0.80
PPG1.59
PPG-0.60
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-12
Clean-sheet rate2.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate6.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-12
Goals Mean0.60
Goals Std0.28
Scored 1+ rate5.9%
Scored 2+ rate14.0%
Scored 3+ rate26.9%
Venue Goals Mean1.11
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.56
History Matches-12
Conceded Mean-0.49
Conceded Std-0.11
Clean-sheet rate2.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.24
Conceded 3+ rate-0.18
Venue Conceded Mean-0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.24
History Matches-12
Result entropy-0.09
Goal Difference Std0.17
Stability score8.51
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.87
Eligible Matches-14
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate12.5%
Lead Points Retention0.13
Trailing Matches-17
Non-loss rate16.7%
Trailing Win Rate2.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches-14
First Half Goals For Mean0.29
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.34
Second Half Goals For Mean0.34
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.60
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.01
Portability PPG Range0.16
Portability Score-0.27
Rest days7.85
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.75
Normal Rest History Matches-14
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.74
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.76
Current Team ELO142.2
Current Opponent ELO-142.2
Current ELO Difference284.4
Expected score0.39
History Matches-12
Residual Mean0.12
Overperformance8.62
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.21

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

RSV Eintracht

L
BFC Dynamo2–0RSV Eintracht30 Oct · away
Pick: BFC Dynamo 44% · hit
L
RSV Eintracht1–2Tasmania Berlin24 Oct · home
Pick: RSV Eintracht 65% · missed
W
Hertha BSC II0–1RSV Eintracht16 Oct · away
Pick: RSV Eintracht 54% · hit
L
RSV Eintracht2–4Magdeburg II30 Aug · home
Pick: RSV Eintracht 48% · missed
L
RSV Eintracht1–2FSV Zwickau26 Aug · home
Pick: RSV Eintracht 57% · missed

Erzgebirge Aue

W
Erzgebirge Aue1–0FC Carl Zeiss Jena31 Oct · home
Pick: FC Carl Zeiss Jena 43% · missed
W
FSV Zwickau0–3Erzgebirge Aue24 Oct · away
Pick: Erzgebirge Aue 39% · hit
L
Erzgebirge Aue0–1Hallescher FC18 Oct · home
Pick: Erzgebirge Aue 45% · missed
W
Lokomotive Leipzig1–2Erzgebirge Aue30 Aug · away
Pick: Lokomotive Leipzig 48% · missed
D
Erzgebirge Aue0–0Hertha BSC II26 Aug · home
Pick: Erzgebirge Aue 63% · missed

About this match

RSV Eintracht and Erzgebirge Aue meet in Regionalliga - Nordost on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: RSV Eintracht win 43.9%, draw 23.2%, Erzgebirge Aue win 32.9%. The pick is RSV Eintracht win. Over 2.5 goals: 67.2%. Both teams to score: 61.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.