ScoreProb
Regionalliga - West Germany West - 16 2026

Hilden vs SV Rodinghausen

Hilden Home · Elo 1,625
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
SV Rodinghausen Away · Elo 1,452
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Hilden win
Hilden winPick
58.3%
Draw
23.1%
SV Rodinghausen win
18.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.5%
No42.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.2%
Under 2.534.8%

How much we know

Hilden history63 matches
SV Rodinghausen history62 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 18:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (58.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Hilden are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Hilden are rated 173 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,625 against 1,452. On rating alone Hilden would be expected to take 73% of the points on offer.

  • Hilden score far more

    2.37 goals a game over 63 matches for Hilden, against 1.27 over 62 for SV Rodinghausen.

  • Hilden concede fewer

    Hilden concede 1.33 a game, SV Rodinghausen 1.61.

  • Hilden games more often go over 2.5 goals

    73% of Hilden matches, against 53% for SV Rodinghausen. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hilden
SV Rodinghausen@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1625.4
ELO
1452.4
63
ELO · Matches
62
1625.4
Current Team ELO
1452.4
1452.4
Current Opponent ELO
1625.4
173.0
Current ELO Difference
-173.0
0.73
Expected score
0.27
63
History Matches
62
0.10
Residual Mean
-0.04
57.26
Overperformance
46.88
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.60
1.60
Goals for per game
1.40
0.40
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.10
2.10
Goals for per game
1.30
1.40
Goals against per game
1.70
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.58
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.27
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
3.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.62
Overall performance9 signals
90
63
Matches
62
1.95
PPG
1.05
60.3%
Win rate
25.8%
14.3%
Draw rate
27.4%
25.4%
Loss rate
46.8%
88.9%
Over 1.5 rate
77.4%
73.0%
Over 2.5 rate
53.2%
49.2%
Over 3.5 rate
35.5%
2.18
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
33
2.13
PPG
0.91
67.7%
Win rate
21.2%
9.7%
Draw rate
27.3%
22.6%
Loss rate
51.5%
83.9%
Over 1.5 rate
84.8%
74.2%
Over 2.5 rate
51.5%
45.2%
Over 3.5 rate
42.4%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.91
31
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.37
Goals for per game
1.27
90.5%
Scoring rate
66.1%
63.5%
BTTS rate
53.2%
2.39
Goals for per game
1.30
83.9%
Scoring rate
66.7%
54.8%
BTTS rate
51.5%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.25
75.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
63
History Matches
62
2.37
Goals Mean
1.27
1.48
Goals Std
1.23
90.5%
Scored 1+ rate
66.1%
68.3%
Scored 2+ rate
38.7%
39.7%
Scored 3+ rate
14.5%
2.39
Venue Goals Mean
1.30
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.33
Goals against per game
1.61
71.4%
Conceding rate
79.0%
1.13
Goals against per game
1.70
67.7%
Conceding rate
81.8%
0.50
Goals against per game
1.50
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
63
History Matches
62
1.33
Conceded Mean
1.61
1.39
Conceded Std
1.24
30.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
48.4%
17.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
24.2%
1.13
Venue Conceded Mean
1.70
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
21.0%
9.5%
Failed-to-score rate
33.9%
32.3%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
16.1%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
21.0%
9.5%
Failed-to-score rate
33.9%
32.3%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
16.1%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
21.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
63
History Matches
62
0.85
Result entropy
0.96
2.18
Goal Difference Std
1.75
15.26
Stability score
3.54
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
60
Eligible Matches
60
29
Lead Matches
18
86.2%
Lead Win Rate
55.6%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.67
8
Trailing Matches
17
12.5%
Non-loss rate
17.6%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
11.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
60
Halftime Coverage Matches
60
1.02
First Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
1.32
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.78
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.93
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.27
Rest days
76.27
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.75
32
Normal Rest History Matches
41
1.97
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.05
29
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.93
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.50
PPG
1.25
25.0%
Win rate
25.0%
75.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
0.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.09
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.50
Current Competition PPG
1.25
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.25
5
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.53
Portability PPG Std
0.23
1.50
Portability PPG Range
0.65
48.69
Portability Score
68.38
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
63
Clean History Matches
62
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO173.0
PPG0.90
GF1.09
GA-0.28
PPG0.25
PPG1.22
PPG0.20
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate7.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.24
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate14.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches1
Goals Mean1.09
Goals Std0.25
Scored 1+ rate24.3%
Scored 2+ rate29.5%
Scored 3+ rate25.2%
Venue Goals Mean1.08
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.31
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.28
Conceded Std0.16
Clean-sheet rate7.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.18
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.57
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.30
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.12
Goal Difference Std0.43
Stability score11.72
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.38
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate30.7%
Lead Points Retention0.21
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate-0.05
Trailing Win Rate0.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.42
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean0.70
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.75
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.30
Portability PPG Range0.85
Portability Score-19.69
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.25
Normal Rest History Matches-9
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.92
Long Rest History Matches13
Long Rest Points Per Match0.93
Current Team ELO173.0
Current Opponent ELO-173.0
Current ELO Difference346.1
Expected score0.46
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.14
Overperformance10.37
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Hilden

L
Borussia M'gladbach II3–0Hilden31 Oct · away
Pick: Borussia M'gladbach II 44% · hit
D
Hilden1–1Schalke 04 II24 Oct · home
Pick: Hilden 59% · missed
W
Bonner SC0–1Hilden17 Oct · away
Pick: Hilden 41% · hit
L
FC Gutersloh6–0Hilden1 Sep · away
Pick: FC Gutersloh 50% · hit
L
Hilden0–2Borussia Dortmund II29 Aug · home
Pick: Hilden 45% · missed

SV Rodinghausen

W
SV Rodinghausen2–1Westfalia Rhynern31 Oct · home
Pick: Westfalia Rhynern 47% · missed
D
Bergisch Gladbach1–1SV Rodinghausen24 Oct · away
Pick: Bergisch Gladbach 44% · missed
L
SV Rodinghausen2–3Köln II16 Oct · home
Pick: SV Rodinghausen 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Hilden and SV Rodinghausen meet in Regionalliga - West on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 18:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Hilden win 58.3%, draw 23.1%, SV Rodinghausen win 18.6%. The pick is Hilden win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.2%. Both teams to score: 57.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.