ScoreProb
Regionalliga - West Germany West - 16 2026

Bergisch Gladbach vs FC Bocholt

Bergisch Gladbach Home · Elo 1,617
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
FC Bocholt Away · Elo 1,522
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FC Bocholt win
Bergisch Gladbach win
38.8%
Draw
20.3%
FC Bocholt winPick
40.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes66.0%
No34.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.572.7%
Under 2.527.3%

How much we know

Bergisch Gladbach history55 matches
FC Bocholt history61 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why FC Bocholt are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Bergisch Gladbach are rated 95 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,617 against 1,522. On rating alone Bergisch Gladbach would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Bergisch Gladbach score more

    2.56 goals a game over 55 matches for Bergisch Gladbach, against 1.92 over 61 for FC Bocholt.

  • Bergisch Gladbach concede fewer

    Bergisch Gladbach concede 1.33 a game, FC Bocholt 1.56.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    71% of Bergisch Gladbach matches, against 69% for FC Bocholt. The model puts this match at 73% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bergisch Gladbach
FC Bocholt@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1617.0
ELO
1521.8
55
ELO · Matches
61
1617.0
Current Team ELO
1521.8
1521.8
Current Opponent ELO
1617.0
95.19
Current ELO Difference
-95.19
0.63
Expected score
0.37
55
History Matches
61
0.10
Residual Mean
0.02
57.56
Overperformance
51.22
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.20
2.00
Goals for per game
2.20
1.80
Goals against per game
2.20
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.30
2.80
Goals for per game
2.30
2.10
Goals against per game
1.70
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
2.71
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.90
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
2.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.49
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
4.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.46
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
61
2.07
PPG
1.41
61.8%
Win rate
37.7%
21.8%
Draw rate
27.9%
16.4%
Loss rate
34.4%
90.9%
Over 1.5 rate
86.9%
70.9%
Over 2.5 rate
68.9%
54.5%
Over 3.5 rate
50.8%
2.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
31
2.14
PPG
1.48
64.3%
Win rate
38.7%
21.4%
Draw rate
32.3%
14.3%
Loss rate
29.0%
92.9%
Over 1.5 rate
83.9%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
64.5%
57.1%
Over 3.5 rate
45.2%
3.27
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.88
28
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.56
Goals for per game
1.92
89.1%
Scoring rate
80.3%
65.5%
BTTS rate
59.0%
2.93
Goals for per game
1.87
89.3%
Scoring rate
83.9%
67.9%
BTTS rate
61.3%
1.50
Goals for per game
2.25
100.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
55
History Matches
61
2.56
Goals Mean
1.92
1.94
Goals Std
1.41
89.1%
Scored 1+ rate
80.3%
70.9%
Scored 2+ rate
62.3%
40.0%
Scored 3+ rate
29.5%
2.93
Venue Goals Mean
1.87
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.33
Goals against per game
1.56
70.9%
Conceding rate
70.5%
1.43
Goals against per game
1.45
75.0%
Conceding rate
67.7%
2.00
Goals against per game
2.25
100.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
55
History Matches
61
1.33
Conceded Mean
1.56
1.51
Conceded Std
1.42
29.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.9%
14.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
26.2%
1.43
Venue Conceded Mean
1.45
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.1%
Clean-sheet rate
29.5%
10.9%
Failed-to-score rate
19.7%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.3%
10.7%
Failed-to-score rate
16.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
29.1%
Clean-sheet rate
29.5%
10.9%
Failed-to-score rate
19.7%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.3%
10.7%
Failed-to-score rate
16.1%
29.1%
Clean-sheet rate
29.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
61
0.84
Result entropy
0.99
2.71
Goal Difference Std
2.05
15.74
Stability score
0.70
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
54
Eligible Matches
61
30
Lead Matches
31
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
58.1%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.66
12
Trailing Matches
13
50.0%
Non-loss rate
23.1%
33.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
61
1.15
First Half Goals For Mean
0.89
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
1.43
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.03
0.78
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.08
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
3
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
28
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.89
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.47
25
Long Rest History Matches
21
2.20
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.38
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.00
PPG
1.25
25.0%
Win rate
25.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 3.5 rate
75.0%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.71
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.25
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
4
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.50
Portability PPG Std
0.54
1.23
Portability PPG Range
1.52
50.10
Portability Score
47.91
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
61
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO95.19
PPG0.66
GF0.65
GA-0.23
PPG-0.25
PPG0.66
PPG0.20
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-6
Goals Mean0.65
Goals Std0.54
Scored 1+ rate8.8%
Scored 2+ rate8.6%
Scored 3+ rate10.5%
Venue Goals Mean1.06
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.81
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean-0.23
Conceded Std0.09
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Conceded 2+ rate-0.17
Conceded 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Conceded Mean-0.02
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.68
History Matches-6
Result entropy-0.15
Goal Difference Std0.66
Stability score15.04
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.90
Eligible Matches-7
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate25.3%
Lead Points Retention0.22
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate26.9%
Trailing Win Rate33.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-7
First Half Goals For Mean0.26
First Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean0.39
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.30
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.50
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.05
Portability PPG Range-0.29
Portability Score2.18
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match2.00
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.42
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.82
Current Team ELO95.19
Current Opponent ELO-95.19
Current ELO Difference190.4
Expected score0.27
History Matches-6
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance6.34
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bergisch Gladbach

L
Paderborn II3–0Bergisch Gladbach31 Oct · away
Pick: Paderborn II 50% · hit
D
Bergisch Gladbach1–1SV Rodinghausen24 Oct · home
Pick: Bergisch Gladbach 44% · missed
L
Borussia M'gladbach II2–1Bergisch Gladbach17 Oct · away
Pick: Borussia M'gladbach II 52% · hit
L
Bergisch Gladbach0–4Rot-weiss Oberhausen29 Aug · home
Pick: Bergisch Gladbach 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

FC Bocholt

D
FC Bocholt2–2Köln II1 Nov · home
Pick: FC Bocholt 53% · missed
D
Bochum II3–3FC Bocholt24 Oct · away
Pick: Bochum II 40% · missed
W
FC Bocholt1–0Sportfreunde Lotte17 Oct · home
Pick: FC Bocholt 50% · hit
D
FC Bocholt2–2Bonner SC1 Sep · home
Pick: FC Bocholt 53% · missed
W
Paderborn II2–4FC Bocholt29 Aug · away
Pick: Paderborn II 40% · missed

About this match

Bergisch Gladbach and FC Bocholt meet in Regionalliga - West on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Bergisch Gladbach win 38.8%, draw 20.3%, FC Bocholt win 40.9%. The pick is FC Bocholt win. Over 2.5 goals: 72.7%. Both teams to score: 66.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.