ScoreProb
Regionalliga - West Germany West - 16 2026

Sportfreunde Lotte vs Wiedenbrück

Sportfreunde Lotte Home · Elo 1,491
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Wiedenbrück Away · Elo 1,455
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sportfreunde Lotte win
Sportfreunde Lotte winPick
47.4%
Draw
24.4%
Wiedenbrück win
28.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.2%
No41.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.9%
Under 2.541.1%

How much we know

Sportfreunde Lotte history63 matches
Wiedenbrück history62 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Sportfreunde Lotte are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Sportfreunde Lotte are rated 36 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,491 against 1,455. On rating alone Sportfreunde Lotte would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Sportfreunde Lotte score more

    1.37 goals a game over 63 matches for Sportfreunde Lotte, against 1.21 over 62 for Wiedenbrück.

  • Defences are close

    Sportfreunde Lotte concede 1.63 a game, Wiedenbrück 1.65.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    59% of Sportfreunde Lotte matches, against 60% for Wiedenbrück. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sportfreunde Lotte
Wiedenbrück@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1490.9
ELO
1455.0
63
ELO · Matches
62
1490.9
Current Team ELO
1455.0
1455.0
Current Opponent ELO
1490.9
35.88
Current ELO Difference
-35.88
0.55
Expected score
0.45
63
History Matches
62
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.03
49.33
Overperformance
47.85
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
1.00
0.40
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
1.60
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.10
1.00
Goals for per game
1.10
1.90
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.89
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.98
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.58
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.58
Overall performance9 signals
90
63
Matches
62
1.30
PPG
1.11
31.7%
Win rate
30.6%
34.9%
Draw rate
19.4%
33.3%
Loss rate
50.0%
79.4%
Over 1.5 rate
77.4%
58.7%
Over 2.5 rate
59.7%
38.1%
Over 3.5 rate
35.5%
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
29
1.23
PPG
0.90
29.0%
Win rate
24.1%
35.5%
Draw rate
17.2%
35.5%
Loss rate
58.6%
77.4%
Over 1.5 rate
72.4%
54.8%
Over 2.5 rate
58.6%
38.7%
Over 3.5 rate
34.5%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
31
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.37
Goals for per game
1.21
71.4%
Scoring rate
67.7%
60.3%
BTTS rate
51.6%
1.45
Goals for per game
0.93
71.0%
Scoring rate
62.1%
54.8%
BTTS rate
44.8%
0.50
Goals for per game
1.25
25.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
63
History Matches
62
1.37
Goals Mean
1.21
1.15
Goals Std
1.18
71.4%
Scored 1+ rate
67.7%
44.4%
Scored 2+ rate
33.9%
15.9%
Scored 3+ rate
11.3%
1.45
Venue Goals Mean
0.93
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.63
Goals against per game
1.65
81.0%
Conceding rate
79.0%
1.58
Goals against per game
1.86
80.6%
Conceding rate
79.3%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
75.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
63
History Matches
62
1.63
Conceded Mean
1.65
1.40
Conceded Std
1.19
41.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
54.8%
23.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
24.2%
1.58
Venue Conceded Mean
1.86
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
19.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.0%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
32.3%
19.4%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
29.0%
Failed-to-score rate
37.9%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
75.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
19.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.0%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
32.3%
19.4%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
29.0%
Failed-to-score rate
37.9%
19.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
63
History Matches
62
1.00
Result entropy
0.93
1.77
Goal Difference Std
1.80
0.07
Stability score
6.53
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
62
Eligible Matches
62
16
Lead Matches
13
62.5%
Lead Win Rate
92.3%
0.73
Lead Points Retention
0.95
24
Trailing Matches
26
37.5%
Non-loss rate
19.2%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
3.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
62
Halftime Coverage Matches
62
0.55
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.81
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
0.82
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.85
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.90
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
6
0.83
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.17
36
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.28
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.06
20
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.40
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.24
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.50
PPG
0.50
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
25.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.83
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.50
Current Competition PPG
0.50
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.75
6
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.48
Portability PPG Std
0.40
1.31
Portability PPG Range
1.07
51.19
Portability Score
55.31
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
63
Clean History Matches
62
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO35.88
PPG0.19
GF0.16
GA-0.01
PPG0.00
PPG0.33
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.16
Goals Std-0.03
Scored 1+ rate3.7%
Scored 2+ rate10.6%
Scored 3+ rate4.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.52
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.05
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.01
Conceded Std0.20
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate-0.14
Conceded 3+ rate0.00
Venue Conceded Mean-0.28
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.72
History Matches1
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.03
Stability score-6.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.00
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.30
Lead Points Retention-0.22
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate18.3%
Trailing Win Rate4.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.25
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.07
Portability PPG Range0.24
Portability Score-4.11
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.22
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.16
Current Team ELO35.88
Current Opponent ELO-35.88
Current ELO Difference71.77
Expected score0.10
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.47
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sportfreunde Lotte

D
SG Wattenscheid 090–0Sportfreunde Lotte31 Oct · away
Pick: SG Wattenscheid 09 52% · missed
L
Sportfreunde Lotte1–4Sportfreunde Siegen24 Oct · home
Pick: Sportfreunde Lotte 40% · missed
L
FC Bocholt1–0Sportfreunde Lotte17 Oct · away
Pick: FC Bocholt 50% · hit
D
Köln II2–2Sportfreunde Lotte29 Aug · away
Pick: Köln II 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Wiedenbrück

L
Wiedenbrück0–1Rot-weiss Oberhausen31 Oct · home
Pick: Rot-weiss Oberhausen 42% · hit
L
FC Gutersloh3–1Wiedenbrück23 Oct · away
Pick: FC Gutersloh 62% · hit
L
Wiedenbrück2–4Borussia Dortmund II17 Oct · home
Pick: Borussia Dortmund II 52% · hit
L
Schalke 04 II4–1Wiedenbrück29 Aug · away
Pick: Schalke 04 II 47% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Sportfreunde Lotte and Wiedenbrück meet in Regionalliga - West on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Sportfreunde Lotte win 47.4%, draw 24.4%, Wiedenbrück win 28.2%. The pick is Sportfreunde Lotte win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.9%. Both teams to score: 58.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.