ScoreProb
3. Division Denmark Round 15 2026

Holbæk B&I vs Brønshøj

Holbæk B&I Home · Elo 1,627
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Brønshøj Away · Elo 1,480
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Holbæk B&I win
Holbæk B&I winPick
57.8%
Draw
19.7%
Brønshøj win
22.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.9%
No40.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.568.9%
Under 2.531.1%

How much we know

Holbæk B&I history65 matches
Brønshøj history69 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.8%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Holbæk B&I are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Holbæk B&I are rated 147 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,627 against 1,480. On rating alone Holbæk B&I would be expected to take 70% of the points on offer.

  • Holbæk B&I score far more

    2.26 goals a game over 65 matches for Holbæk B&I, against 1.32 over 69 for Brønshøj.

  • Holbæk B&I concede fewer

    Holbæk B&I concede 1.28 a game, Brønshøj 1.67.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    63% of Holbæk B&I matches, against 57% for Brønshøj. The model puts this match at 69% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Holbæk B&I
Brønshøj
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1627.0
ELO
1479.6
65
ELO · Matches
69
1627.0
Current Team ELO
1479.6
1479.6
Current Opponent ELO
1627.0
147.4
Current ELO Difference
-147.4
0.70
Expected score
0.30
65
History Matches
69
0.10
Residual Mean
0.00
57.38
Overperformance
49.82
0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.40
2.20
Goals for per game
1.40
1.40
Goals against per game
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.50
PPG
1.30
2.50
Goals for per game
1.30
1.10
Goals against per game
1.50
80.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.90
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.54
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.50
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.40
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
69
1.86
PPG
1.17
53.8%
Win rate
27.5%
24.6%
Draw rate
34.8%
21.5%
Loss rate
37.7%
86.2%
Over 1.5 rate
76.8%
63.1%
Over 2.5 rate
56.5%
49.2%
Over 3.5 rate
40.6%
2.01
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
30
1.91
PPG
1.10
54.5%
Win rate
23.3%
27.3%
Draw rate
40.0%
18.2%
Loss rate
36.7%
90.9%
Over 1.5 rate
73.3%
72.7%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
48.5%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
2.14
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
33
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.26
Goals for per game
1.32
86.2%
Scoring rate
68.1%
63.1%
BTTS rate
60.9%
2.42
Goals for per game
1.27
90.9%
Scoring rate
63.3%
66.7%
BTTS rate
56.7%
2.50
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
65
History Matches
69
2.26
Goals Mean
1.32
1.66
Goals Std
1.21
86.2%
Scored 1+ rate
68.1%
67.7%
Scored 2+ rate
39.1%
33.8%
Scored 3+ rate
20.3%
2.42
Venue Goals Mean
1.27
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.28
Goals against per game
1.67
72.3%
Conceding rate
79.7%
1.33
Goals against per game
1.80
69.7%
Conceding rate
76.7%
1.25
Goals against per game
1.25
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
65
History Matches
69
1.28
Conceded Mean
1.67
1.14
Conceded Std
1.27
35.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
53.6%
13.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.3%
1.33
Venue Conceded Mean
1.80
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
27.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.3%
13.8%
Failed-to-score rate
31.9%
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
9.1%
Failed-to-score rate
36.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
27.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.3%
13.8%
Failed-to-score rate
31.9%
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
9.1%
Failed-to-score rate
36.7%
27.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
69
0.92
Result entropy
0.99
2.01
Goal Difference Std
1.57
8.15
Stability score
0.76
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
63
Eligible Matches
68
28
Lead Matches
18
85.7%
Lead Win Rate
72.2%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.80
15
Trailing Matches
19
46.7%
Non-loss rate
26.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
63
Halftime Coverage Matches
68
1.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
1.27
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.12
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
73.06
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
38
Normal Rest History Matches
47
2.03
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.19
23
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.70
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.24
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
2.50
PPG
1.25
75.0%
Win rate
25.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
4
Current Competition Matches
4
2.50
Current Competition PPG
1.25
1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.25
7
Competition Season Count
7
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.29
Portability PPG Std
0.25
0.94
Portability PPG Range
0.81
63.47
Portability Score
66.48
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
69
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO147.4
PPG0.69
GF0.94
GA-0.39
PPG1.25
PPG0.81
PPG0.60
PPG1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate7.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate7.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.28
History Matches-4
Goals Mean0.94
Goals Std0.45
Scored 1+ rate18.0%
Scored 2+ rate28.6%
Scored 3+ rate13.6%
Venue Goals Mean1.16
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.30
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean-0.39
Conceded Std-0.13
Clean-sheet rate7.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.18
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.47
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.96
History Matches-4
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std0.44
Stability score7.39
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.41
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.04
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate13.5%
Lead Points Retention0.10
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate20.4%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean0.53
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.47
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.04
Portability PPG Range0.13
Portability Score-3.01
Rest days3.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.33
Normal Rest History Matches-9
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.83
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.46
Current Team ELO147.4
Current Opponent ELO-147.4
Current ELO Difference294.8
Expected score0.40
History Matches-4
Residual Mean0.10
Overperformance7.56
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Holbæk B&I

L
Holbæk B&I0–1Vanløse31 Oct · home
Pick: Holbæk B&I 49% · missed
W
Næsby1–2Holbæk B&I24 Oct · away
Pick: Holbæk B&I 43% · hit
W
Holbæk B&I4–0Holstebro17 Oct · home
Pick: Holbæk B&I 54% · hit
W
Holbæk B&I3–2Næsby29 Aug · home
Pick: Holbæk B&I 59% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Brønshøj

W
Brønshøj2–1Næsby31 Oct · home
Pick: Næsby 43% · missed
L
Sundby3–1Brønshøj23 Oct · away
Pick: Brønshøj 40% · missed
W
Brønshøj4–1Ringsted17 Oct · home
Pick: Brønshøj 60% · hit
W
Hørsholm-Usserød0–2Brønshøj29 Aug · away
Pick: Hørsholm-Usserød 48% · missed
L
Brønshøj2–4AB Copenhagen25 Aug · home
Pick: AB Copenhagen 40% · hit

About this match

Holbæk B&I and Brønshøj meet in 3. Division on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Holbæk B&I win 57.8%, draw 19.7%, Brønshøj win 22.4%. The pick is Holbæk B&I win. Over 2.5 goals: 68.9%. Both teams to score: 59.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.