ScoreProb
Czech Liga Czechia Round 14 2026

Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc

Hradec Králové Home · Elo 1,633
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sigma Olomouc Away · Elo 1,604
FINEP Arena, Hradec Kralove Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Hradec Králové win
Hradec Králové winPick
38.0%
Draw
29.2%
Sigma Olomouc win
32.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.5%
No48.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.4%
Under 2.550.6%

How much we know

Hradec Králové history68 matches
Sigma Olomouc history85 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.0%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Hradec Králové are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Hradec Králové are rated 29 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,633 against 1,604. On rating alone Hradec Králové would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Hradec Králové score more

    1.56 goals a game over 68 matches for Hradec Králové, against 1.39 over 85 for Sigma Olomouc.

  • Hradec Králové concede fewer

    Hradec Králové concede 1.06 a game, Sigma Olomouc 1.20.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    51% of Hradec Králové matches, against 56% for Sigma Olomouc. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hradec Králové
Sigma Olomouc@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1633.4
ELO
1604.2
68
ELO · Matches
85
1633.4
Current Team ELO
1604.2
1604.2
Current Opponent ELO
1633.4
29.21
Current ELO Difference
-29.21
0.54
Expected score
0.46
68
History Matches
85
0.09
Residual Mean
0.07
57.10
Overperformance
55.39
0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.27
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.00
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
0.80
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
2.30
1.40
Goals for per game
2.10
0.70
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
1.11
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.22
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.46
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.63
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.19
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.30
Overall performance9 signals
90
68
Matches
85
1.72
PPG
1.59
50.0%
Win rate
45.9%
22.1%
Draw rate
21.2%
27.9%
Loss rate
32.9%
72.1%
Over 1.5 rate
74.1%
51.5%
Over 2.5 rate
56.5%
23.5%
Over 3.5 rate
25.9%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
40
1.94
PPG
1.38
56.3%
Win rate
40.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
17.5%
18.8%
Loss rate
42.5%
71.9%
Over 1.5 rate
72.5%
46.9%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
15.6%
Over 3.5 rate
32.5%
1.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
32
History Matches
40
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.56
Goals for per game
1.39
77.9%
Scoring rate
72.9%
48.5%
BTTS rate
55.3%
1.47
Goals for per game
1.28
81.3%
Scoring rate
65.0%
46.9%
BTTS rate
57.5%
1.33
Goals for per game
2.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
100.0%
68
History Matches
85
1.56
Goals Mean
1.39
1.23
Goals Std
1.16
77.9%
Scored 1+ rate
72.9%
47.1%
Scored 2+ rate
44.7%
22.1%
Scored 3+ rate
15.3%
1.47
Venue Goals Mean
1.28
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.06
Goals against per game
1.20
64.7%
Conceding rate
74.1%
0.81
Goals against per game
1.43
56.3%
Conceding rate
87.5%
0.67
Goals against per game
1.40
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
68
History Matches
85
1.06
Conceded Mean
1.20
1.04
Conceded Std
1.07
26.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.8%
13.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.1%
0.81
Venue Conceded Mean
1.43
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
22.1%
Failed-to-score rate
27.1%
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
35.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
22.1%
Failed-to-score rate
27.1%
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
35.0%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
68
History Matches
85
0.94
Result entropy
0.96
1.61
Goal Difference Std
1.70
5.68
Stability score
4.24
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
68
Eligible Matches
85
28
Lead Matches
30
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.84
14
Trailing Matches
18
28.6%
Non-loss rate
22.2%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
5.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
68
Halftime Coverage Matches
85
0.79
First Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.46
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
0.76
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.60
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
85.88
Rest days
75.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
14
2.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.93
37
Normal Rest History Matches
49
1.62
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.47
27
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.74
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.57
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
5
2.33
PPG
2.00
66.7%
Win rate
60.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
20.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.02
3
Current Competition Matches
5
2.33
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.60
8
Competition Season Count
9
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.44
Portability PPG Std
0.63
1.17
Portability PPG Range
1.81
53.10
Portability Score
44.05
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
68
Clean History Matches
85
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO29.21
PPG0.13
GF0.17
GA-0.14
PPG0.33
PPG0.56
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-17
Clean-sheet rate9.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate31.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches-17
Goals Mean0.17
Goals Std0.07
Scored 1+ rate5.0%
Scored 2+ rate2.4%
Scored 3+ rate6.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.19
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.11
History Matches-17
Conceded Mean-0.14
Conceded Std-0.03
Clean-sheet rate9.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate6.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.61
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.17
History Matches-17
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.09
Stability score1.43
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.11
Eligible Matches-17
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate6.3%
Trailing Win Rate8.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches-17
First Half Goals For Mean0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Current Competition Matches-2
Current Competition PPG0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.07
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.19
Portability PPG Range-0.65
Portability Score9.05
Rest days10.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-11
Short Rest Points Per Match0.40
Normal Rest History Matches-12
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.15
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.17
Current Team ELO29.21
Current Opponent ELO-29.21
Current ELO Difference58.42
Expected score0.08
History Matches-17
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance1.71
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Hradec Králové

L
Mlada Boleslav3–1Hradec Králové1 Nov · away
Pick: Mlada Boleslav 42% · hit
L
Hradec Králové1–2FK Jablonec25 Oct · home
Pick: FK Jablonec 36% · hit
D
Slavia Praha0–0Hradec Králové17 Oct · away
Pick: Slavia Praha 56% · missed
L
Slovan Liberec2–0Hradec Králové30 Aug · away
Pick: Slovan Liberec 38% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Sigma Olomouc

W
Sigma Olomouc3–0Zbrojovka Brno31 Oct · home
Pick: Sigma Olomouc 39% · hit
D
Zlin1–1Sigma Olomouc24 Oct · away
Pick: Sigma Olomouc 49% · missed
W
Sigma Olomouc1–0Slovan Liberec17 Oct · home
Pick: Sigma Olomouc 47% · hit
L
Baník Ostrava1–0Sigma Olomouc29 Aug · away
Pick: Sigma Olomouc 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc meet in Czech Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at FINEP Arena, Hradec Kralove. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Hradec Králové win 38.0%, draw 29.2%, Sigma Olomouc win 32.9%. The pick is Hradec Králové win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.4%. Both teams to score: 51.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.