ScoreProb
Czech Liga Czechia Round 14 2026

Zlin vs Slovácko

Zlin Home · Elo 1,477
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Slovácko Away · Elo 1,448
Stadion Letna, Zlin Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Zlin win
Zlin winPick
46.5%
Draw
29.5%
Slovácko win
24.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.9%
No46.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.1%
Under 2.548.9%

How much we know

Zlin history76 matches
Slovácko history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Zlin are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Zlin are rated 29 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,477 against 1,448. On rating alone Zlin would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Zlin score more

    1.30 goals a game over 76 matches for Zlin, against 1.03 over 70 for Slovácko.

  • Zlin concede fewer

    Zlin concede 1.37 a game, Slovácko 1.56.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    49% of Zlin matches, against 51% for Slovácko. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Zlin
Slovácko@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1477.2
ELO
1448.2
76
ELO · Matches
70
1477.2
Current Team ELO
1448.2
1448.2
Current Opponent ELO
1477.2
29.06
Current ELO Difference
-29.06
0.54
Expected score
0.46
76
History Matches
70
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.03
49.13
Overperformance
47.61
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.20
1.00
Goals for per game
0.80
1.80
Goals against per game
2.20
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
0.60
1.10
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
2.10
30.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.75
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
1.11
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.22
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.30
Overall performance9 signals
90
76
Matches
70
1.39
PPG
1.00
39.5%
Win rate
25.7%
21.1%
Draw rate
22.9%
39.5%
Loss rate
51.4%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
74.3%
48.7%
Over 2.5 rate
51.4%
30.3%
Over 3.5 rate
21.4%
1.84
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
Venue performance10 signals
100
40
Matches
34
1.40
PPG
0.82
40.0%
Win rate
20.6%
20.0%
Draw rate
20.6%
40.0%
Loss rate
58.8%
77.5%
Over 1.5 rate
64.7%
55.0%
Over 2.5 rate
35.3%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
17.6%
1.86
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
40
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.30
Goals for per game
1.03
75.0%
Scoring rate
62.9%
51.3%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.33
Goals for per game
0.82
75.0%
Scoring rate
52.9%
52.5%
BTTS rate
41.2%
0.60
Goals for per game
0.80
40.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
80.0%
76
History Matches
70
1.30
Goals Mean
1.03
1.12
Goals Std
0.99
75.0%
Scored 1+ rate
62.9%
35.5%
Scored 2+ rate
31.4%
14.5%
Scored 3+ rate
7.1%
1.33
Venue Goals Mean
0.82
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.37
Goals against per game
1.56
69.7%
Conceding rate
80.0%
1.45
Goals against per game
1.53
75.0%
Conceding rate
82.4%
2.00
Goals against per game
2.20
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
76
History Matches
70
1.37
Conceded Mean
1.56
1.32
Conceded Std
1.26
36.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.7%
21.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.1%
1.45
Venue Conceded Mean
1.53
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
37.1%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
47.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
60.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
37.1%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
47.1%
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
76
History Matches
70
0.97
Result entropy
0.94
1.84
Goal Difference Std
1.65
3.34
Stability score
6.38
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
76
Eligible Matches
70
23
Lead Matches
10
78.3%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
0.87
22
Trailing Matches
29
22.7%
Non-loss rate
24.1%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
13.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
76
Halftime Coverage Matches
70
0.62
First Half Goals For Mean
0.41
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
0.68
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.78
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.94
Rest days
76.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
7
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.43
50
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.42
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.22
18
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.60
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
0.00
PPG
0.20
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
80.0%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
0.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
5
Current Competition Matches
5
0.00
Current Competition PPG
0.20
-1.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.40
9
Competition Season Count
5
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.69
Portability PPG Std
0.62
2.21
Portability PPG Range
1.80
42.11
Portability Score
44.62
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
76
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO29.06
PPG0.39
GF0.27
GA-0.19
PPG-0.20
PPG0.58
PPG0.40
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate10.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate7.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches6
Goals Mean0.27
Goals Std0.14
Scored 1+ rate12.1%
Scored 2+ rate4.1%
Scored 3+ rate7.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.08
History Matches6
Conceded Mean-0.19
Conceded Std0.06
Clean-sheet rate10.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate3.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.08
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.11
History Matches6
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.19
Stability score-3.03
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.20
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches13
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate-0.01
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.24
Second Half Goals For Mean0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.07
Portability PPG Range0.41
Portability Score-2.51
Rest days-3.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.43
Normal Rest History Matches13
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.20
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.90
Current Team ELO29.06
Current Opponent ELO-29.06
Current ELO Difference58.11
Expected score0.08
History Matches6
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.53
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Zlin

D
Artis2–2Zlin31 Oct · away
Pick: Artis 40% · missed
D
Zlin1–1Sigma Olomouc24 Oct · home
Pick: Sigma Olomouc 49% · missed
L
Pardubice3–0Zlin17 Oct · away
Pick: Pardubice 42% · hit
L
Zbrojovka Brno3–2Zlin29 Aug · away
Pick: Zbrojovka Brno 64% · hit
W
Uničov0–2Zlin25 Aug · away
Pick: Zlin 38% · hit

Slovácko

L
Slovácko1–3Teplice31 Oct · home
Pick: Teplice 44% · hit
L
Slovácko1–4Pardubice28 Oct · home
Pick: Slovácko 39% · missed
L
Sparta Praha5–1Slovácko25 Oct · away
Pick: Sparta Praha 70% · hit
L
Slovácko1–2Zbrojovka Brno18 Oct · home
Pick: Zbrojovka Brno 68% · hit
D
Plzen1–1Slovácko30 Aug · away
Pick: Plzen 62% · missed

About this match

Zlin and Slovácko meet in Czech Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Letna, Zlin. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Zlin win 46.5%, draw 29.5%, Slovácko win 24.0%. The pick is Zlin win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.1%. Both teams to score: 53.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.