ScoreProb
Second NL Croatia Round 12 2026

Hrvatski Dragovoljac vs Koprivnica

Hrvatski Dragovoljac Home · Elo 1,440
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Koprivnica Away · Elo 1,479
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Koprivnica win
Hrvatski Dragovoljac win
35.8%
Draw
25.2%
Koprivnica winPick
38.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.4%
No46.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.5%
Under 2.537.5%

How much we know

Hrvatski Dragovoljac history48 matches
Koprivnica history25 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.9%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Koprivnica are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Koprivnica are rated 39 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,479 against 1,440. On rating alone Koprivnica would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Koprivnica score more

    1.15 goals a game over 48 matches for Hrvatski Dragovoljac, against 1.28 over 25 for Koprivnica.

  • Defences are close

    Hrvatski Dragovoljac concede 1.75 a game, Koprivnica 1.68.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    54% of Hrvatski Dragovoljac matches, against 52% for Koprivnica. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
Koprivnica
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1440.0
ELO
1479.0
48
ELO · Matches
25
1440.0
Current Team ELO
1479.0
1479.0
Current Opponent ELO
1440.0
-38.93
Current ELO Difference
38.93
0.44
Expected score
0.56
48
History Matches
25
-0.06
Residual Mean
-0.04
45.53
Overperformance
47.53
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.20
1.00
Goals for per game
1.80
2.00
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.20
1.30
Goals for per game
1.50
1.50
Goals against per game
1.50
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.73
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.57
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.91
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.96
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.73
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
25
0.94
PPG
1.16
22.9%
Win rate
32.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
52.1%
Loss rate
48.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
72.0%
54.2%
Over 2.5 rate
52.0%
45.8%
Over 3.5 rate
36.0%
2.14
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
13
1.04
PPG
0.92
26.1%
Win rate
23.1%
26.1%
Draw rate
23.1%
47.8%
Loss rate
53.8%
73.9%
Over 1.5 rate
61.5%
56.5%
Over 2.5 rate
53.8%
43.5%
Over 3.5 rate
46.2%
2.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
23
History Matches
13
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.15
Goals for per game
1.28
64.6%
Scoring rate
64.0%
47.9%
BTTS rate
48.0%
1.39
Goals for per game
1.23
65.2%
Scoring rate
53.8%
47.8%
BTTS rate
46.2%
2.00
Goals for per game
5.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
48
History Matches
25
1.15
Goals Mean
1.28
1.31
Goals Std
1.34
64.6%
Scored 1+ rate
64.0%
27.1%
Scored 2+ rate
36.0%
10.4%
Scored 3+ rate
16.0%
1.39
Venue Goals Mean
1.23
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.75
Goals against per game
1.68
77.1%
Conceding rate
72.0%
1.57
Goals against per game
1.85
73.9%
Conceding rate
76.9%
3.00
Goals against per game
3.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
48
History Matches
25
1.75
Conceded Mean
1.68
1.39
Conceded Std
1.35
52.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
56.0%
31.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.0%
1.57
Venue Conceded Mean
1.85
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.9%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
35.4%
Failed-to-score rate
36.0%
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
34.8%
Failed-to-score rate
46.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
22.9%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
35.4%
Failed-to-score rate
36.0%
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
34.8%
Failed-to-score rate
46.2%
22.9%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
25
0.93
Result entropy
0.95
2.14
Goal Difference Std
1.70
6.80
Stability score
5.44
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
47
Eligible Matches
21
10
Lead Matches
5
70.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
1.00
21
Trailing Matches
8
14.3%
Non-loss rate
12.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
47
Halftime Coverage Matches
21
0.53
First Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.87
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
0.64
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.83
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.05
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.90
Rest days
76.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
25
Normal Rest History Matches
9
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.56
22
Long Rest History Matches
14
0.77
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.00
4
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.07
Portability PPG Std
0.63
0.13
Portability PPG Range
1.50
88.24
Portability Score
44.19
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
25
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-38.93
PPG-0.22
GF-0.13
GA0.07
PPG-3.00
PPG0.12
PPG-0.40
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches23
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate3.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches23
Goals Mean-0.13
Goals Std-0.04
Scored 1+ rate0.6%
Scored 2+ rate-0.09
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean0.16
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.17
History Matches23
Conceded Mean0.07
Conceded Std0.04
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate3.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.28
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.63
History Matches23
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.44
Stability score1.35
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.23
Eligible Matches26
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate-0.30
Lead Points Retention-0.20
Trailing Matches13
Non-loss rate1.8%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches26
First Half Goals For Mean-0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-3.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.56
Portability PPG Range-1.37
Portability Score44.04
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches16
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.44
Long Rest History Matches8
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.73
Current Team ELO-38.93
Current Opponent ELO38.93
Current ELO Difference-77.87
Expected score-0.11
History Matches23
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-2.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

W
Bjelovar1–5Hrvatski Dragovoljac31 Oct · away
Pick: Bjelovar 63% · missed
D
Hrvatski Dragovoljac1–1Inter Zapresic24 Oct · home
Pick: Hrvatski Dragovoljac 66% · missed
L
Varteks Varaždin3–0Hrvatski Dragovoljac17 Oct · away
Pick: Varteks Varaždin 46% · hit
L
Hrvatski Dragovoljac0–3Lucko29 Aug · home
Pick: Lucko 38% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Koprivnica

L
Koprivnica0–1Jarun31 Oct · home
Pick: Koprivnica 48% · missed
L
Dugo Selo2–0Koprivnica24 Oct · away
Pick: Koprivnica 38% · missed
L
Bjelovar4–0Koprivnica17 Oct · away
Pick: Bjelovar 48% · hit
L
Koprivnica1–2Inter Zapresic12 Oct · home
Pick: Koprivnica 67% · missed
D
Koprivnica2–2Slavonija Požega29 Aug · home
Pick: Koprivnica 55% · missed

About this match

Hrvatski Dragovoljac and Koprivnica meet in Second NL on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Hrvatski Dragovoljac win 35.8%, draw 25.2%, Koprivnica win 38.9%. The pick is Koprivnica win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.5%. Both teams to score: 53.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.