ScoreProb
Second NL Croatia Round 12 2026

Solin vs Bjelovar

Solin Home · Elo 1,518
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Bjelovar Away · Elo 1,489
Stadion Pokraj Jadra, Solin Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bjelovar win
Solin win
36.2%
Draw
23.2%
Bjelovar winPick
40.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.7%
No42.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.5%
Under 2.540.5%

How much we know

Solin history48 matches
Bjelovar history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Bjelovar are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Solin are rated 29 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,518 against 1,489. On rating alone Solin would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Solin score more

    1.71 goals a game over 48 matches for Solin, against 1.40 over 55 for Bjelovar.

  • Defences are close

    Solin concede 1.38 a game, Bjelovar 1.49.

  • Solin games more often go over 2.5 goals

    65% of Solin matches, against 47% for Bjelovar. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Solin
Bjelovar
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1518.4
ELO
1489.2
48
ELO · Matches
55
1518.4
Current Team ELO
1489.2
1489.2
Current Opponent ELO
1518.4
29.17
Current ELO Difference
-29.17
0.54
Expected score
0.46
48
History Matches
55
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.01
51.32
Overperformance
49.23
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.60
1.40
Goals for per game
1.60
1.40
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.30
1.70
Goals for per game
1.60
1.80
Goals against per game
1.40
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.35
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.36
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.36
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.62
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.40
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
55
1.50
PPG
1.25
41.7%
Win rate
34.5%
25.0%
Draw rate
21.8%
33.3%
Loss rate
43.6%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
64.6%
Over 2.5 rate
47.3%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
34.5%
2.23
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
28
1.63
PPG
1.14
45.8%
Win rate
32.1%
25.0%
Draw rate
17.9%
29.2%
Loss rate
50.0%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
78.6%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
45.8%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
2.31
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
24
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.71
Goals for per game
1.40
77.1%
Scoring rate
70.9%
64.6%
BTTS rate
47.3%
2.08
Goals for per game
1.07
87.5%
Scoring rate
60.7%
62.5%
BTTS rate
32.1%
1.00
Goals for per game
4.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
48
History Matches
55
1.71
Goals Mean
1.40
1.59
Goals Std
1.22
77.1%
Scored 1+ rate
70.9%
47.9%
Scored 2+ rate
49.1%
20.8%
Scored 3+ rate
12.7%
2.08
Venue Goals Mean
1.07
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.38
Goals against per game
1.49
81.3%
Conceding rate
69.1%
1.17
Goals against per game
1.54
75.0%
Conceding rate
60.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
3.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
48
History Matches
55
1.38
Conceded Mean
1.49
1.13
Conceded Std
1.28
35.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
49.1%
14.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.6%
1.17
Venue Conceded Mean
1.54
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
30.9%
22.9%
Failed-to-score rate
29.1%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
39.3%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
39.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
30.9%
22.9%
Failed-to-score rate
29.1%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
39.3%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
39.3%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
30.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
55
0.98
Result entropy
0.97
2.23
Goal Difference Std
1.71
1.92
Stability score
3.40
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
48
Eligible Matches
55
18
Lead Matches
16
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
81.3%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.85
11
Trailing Matches
13
27.3%
Non-loss rate
15.4%
18.2%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
48
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.96
First Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
0.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.79
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.85
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.90
Rest days
76.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
32
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.66
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.15
13
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.46
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.40
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
5
Competition Season Count
6
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.08
Portability PPG Std
0.29
0.17
Portability PPG Range
0.67
85.71
Portability Score
62.94
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO29.17
PPG0.25
GF0.31
GA-0.12
PPG-2.00
PPG0.48
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate-0.27
History Matches-7
Goals Mean0.31
Goals Std0.38
Scored 1+ rate6.2%
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate8.1%
Venue Goals Mean1.01
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.01
History Matches-7
Conceded Mean-0.12
Conceded Std-0.15
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Conceded 2+ rate-0.14
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.37
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.24
History Matches-7
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.52
Stability score-1.49
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.22
Eligible Matches-7
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate11.9%
Trailing Win Rate10.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches-7
First Half Goals For Mean0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.21
Portability PPG Range-0.50
Portability Score22.77
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-3.00
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.50
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.06
Current Team ELO29.17
Current Opponent ELO-29.17
Current ELO Difference58.34
Expected score0.08
History Matches-7
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Solin

L
Inter Zapresic2–1Solin31 Oct · away
Pick: Solin 51% · missed
W
Solin3–0Varteks Varaždin24 Oct · home
Pick: Solin 55% · hit
L
Uskok Klis1–0Solin17 Oct · away
Pick: Uskok Klis 52% · hit
L
Solin1–3Uljanik30 Aug · home
Pick: Solin 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Bjelovar

L
Bjelovar1–5Hrvatski Dragovoljac31 Oct · home
Pick: Bjelovar 63% · missed
D
Jarun2–2Bjelovar24 Oct · away
Pick: Bjelovar 40% · missed
W
Bjelovar4–0Koprivnica17 Oct · home
Pick: Bjelovar 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Solin and Bjelovar meet in Second NL on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Pokraj Jadra, Solin. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Solin win 36.2%, draw 23.2%, Bjelovar win 40.6%. The pick is Bjelovar win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.5%. Both teams to score: 57.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.