ScoreProb
Premier League Mongolia Round 13 2027

Hunters vs Deren

Hunters Home · Elo 1,524
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Deren Away · Elo 1,606
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Deren win
Hunters win
24.1%
Draw
22.6%
Deren winPick
53.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.5%
No37.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.570.8%
Under 2.529.2%

How much we know

Hunters history37 matches
Deren history41 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 23 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 08:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Deren are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Deren are rated 82 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,606 against 1,524. On rating alone Deren would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Deren score more

    2.54 goals a game over 37 matches for Hunters, against 2.83 over 41 for Deren.

  • Deren concede fewer

    Hunters concede 1.62 a game, Deren 1.05.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    59% of Hunters matches, against 59% for Deren. The model puts this match at 71% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 6 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hunters
Deren
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1524.5
ELO
1606.1
37
ELO · Matches
41
1524.5
Current Team ELO
1606.1
1606.1
Current Opponent ELO
1524.5
-81.61
Current ELO Difference
81.61
0.38
Expected score
0.62
37
History Matches
41
0.04
Residual Mean
0.13
52.38
Overperformance
58.43
0.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.19
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
2.40
7.60
Goals for per game
2.00
0.60
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
2.10
4.80
Goals for per game
3.20
1.30
Goals against per game
1.10
70.0%
Win rate
70.0%
4.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.20
3.84
Recent 10 Goals Std
3.37
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
4.41
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
4.01
Overall performance9 signals
90
37
Matches
41
1.46
PPG
1.93
43.2%
Win rate
58.5%
16.2%
Draw rate
17.1%
40.5%
Loss rate
24.4%
89.2%
Over 1.5 rate
90.2%
59.5%
Over 2.5 rate
58.5%
51.4%
Over 3.5 rate
43.9%
3.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.29
Venue performance10 signals
100
19
Matches
21
1.32
PPG
2.05
36.8%
Win rate
66.7%
21.1%
Draw rate
4.8%
42.1%
Loss rate
28.6%
89.5%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
63.2%
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
52.6%
Over 3.5 rate
52.4%
3.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.38
19
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.54
Goals for per game
2.83
75.7%
Scoring rate
85.4%
56.8%
BTTS rate
56.1%
2.42
Goals for per game
2.48
78.9%
Scoring rate
81.0%
63.2%
BTTS rate
52.4%
37
History Matches
41
2.54
Goals Mean
2.83
2.93
Goals Std
2.81
75.7%
Scored 1+ rate
85.4%
45.9%
Scored 2+ rate
58.5%
35.1%
Scored 3+ rate
41.5%
2.42
Venue Goals Mean
2.48
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.62
Goals against per game
1.05
78.4%
Conceding rate
68.3%
1.68
Goals against per game
1.14
78.9%
Conceding rate
66.7%
37
History Matches
41
1.62
Conceded Mean
1.05
1.32
Conceded Std
0.96
45.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
26.8%
21.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.3%
1.68
Venue Conceded Mean
1.14
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
21.6%
Clean-sheet rate
31.7%
24.3%
Failed-to-score rate
14.6%
21.1%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
21.1%
Failed-to-score rate
19.0%
21.6%
Clean-sheet rate
31.7%
24.3%
Failed-to-score rate
14.6%
21.1%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
21.1%
Failed-to-score rate
19.0%
21.6%
Clean-sheet rate
31.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
37
History Matches
41
0.93
Result entropy
0.87
3.54
Goal Difference Std
3.29
6.83
Stability score
12.67
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
37
Eligible Matches
40
15
Lead Matches
19
86.7%
Lead Win Rate
89.5%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.91
10
Trailing Matches
7
20.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
37
Halftime Coverage Matches
40
1.00
First Half Goals For Mean
1.38
0.68
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
1.54
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.38
0.95
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
124.9
Rest days
123.2
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
8
1.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
23
Normal Rest History Matches
22
1.35
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.14
9
Long Rest History Matches
10
1.78
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.30
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.37
Portability PPG Std
0.03
0.74
Portability PPG Range
0.07
57.43
Portability Score
93.67
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
37
Clean History Matches
41
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-81.61
PPG-0.47
GF-0.29
GA0.57
PPG-0.73
PPG0.60
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate9.7%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate2.0%
History Matches-4
Goals Mean-0.29
Goals Std0.12
Scored 1+ rate-0.10
Scored 2+ rate-0.13
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean-0.06
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.47
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean0.57
Conceded Std0.36
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Conceded 2+ rate19.1%
Conceded 3+ rate14.3%
Venue Conceded Mean0.54
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.16
History Matches-4
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std0.25
Stability score-5.84
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.40
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate20.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean0.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.52
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.34
Portability PPG Range0.67
Portability Score-36.23
Rest days1.71
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.79
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.48
Current Team ELO-81.61
Current Opponent ELO81.61
Current ELO Difference-163.2
Expected score-0.23
History Matches-4
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance-6.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Hunters

L
Hunters1–9Ulaanbaatar2 Nov · home
Pick: Ulaanbaatar 49% · hit
L
Hunters1–7Central Stallions29 Oct · home
Pick: Central Stallions 47% · hit
L
Deren2–0Hunters25 Oct · away
Pick: Deren 53% · hit
W
Hunters5–1Erchim18 Oct · home
Pick: Hunters 80% · hit
W
Hunters6–1Khovd15 Oct · home
Pick: Hunters 72% · hit

Deren

D
Central Stallions3–3Deren2 Nov · away
Pick: Deren 52% · missed
L
Ulaanbaatar1–0Deren29 Oct · away
Pick: Ulaanbaatar 46% · hit
W
Deren2–0Hunters25 Oct · home
Pick: Deren 53% · hit
W
Deren5–0Erchim14 Oct · home
Pick: Deren 88% · hit
D
Deren3–3Khovd4 Oct · home
Pick: Deren 80% · missed

About this match

Hunters and Deren meet in Premier League on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 08:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Hunters win 24.1%, draw 22.6%, Deren win 53.3%. The pick is Deren win. Over 2.5 goals: 70.8%. Both teams to score: 62.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.