ScoreProb
Premier League Mongolia Round 13 2027

Ulaanbaatar vs Central Stallions

Ulaanbaatar Home · Elo 1,623
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Central Stallions Away · Elo 1,567
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Ulaanbaatar win
Ulaanbaatar winPick
56.6%
Draw
16.1%
Central Stallions win
27.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.4%
No38.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.574.9%
Under 2.525.1%

How much we know

Ulaanbaatar history42 matches
Central Stallions history40 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 20 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 05:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (56.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Ulaanbaatar are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Ulaanbaatar are rated 56 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,623 against 1,567. On rating alone Ulaanbaatar would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Ulaanbaatar score more

    2.93 goals a game over 42 matches for Ulaanbaatar, against 2.15 over 40 for Central Stallions.

  • Ulaanbaatar concede fewer

    Ulaanbaatar concede 1.19 a game, Central Stallions 1.83.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    74% of Ulaanbaatar matches, against 73% for Central Stallions. The model puts this match at 75% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 12 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ulaanbaatar
Central Stallions
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1623.0
ELO
1567.0
42
ELO · Matches
40
1623.0
Current Team ELO
1567.0
1567.0
Current Opponent ELO
1623.0
56.03
Current ELO Difference
-56.03
0.58
Expected score
0.42
42
History Matches
40
0.15
Residual Mean
0.08
60.24
Overperformance
55.34
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.60
2.20
Goals for per game
1.60
2.20
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.40
2.60
Goals for per game
1.20
1.30
Goals against per game
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.27
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.08
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.41
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.62
Overall performance9 signals
90
42
Matches
40
2.10
PPG
1.60
64.3%
Win rate
47.5%
16.7%
Draw rate
17.5%
19.0%
Loss rate
35.0%
88.1%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
73.8%
Over 2.5 rate
72.5%
54.8%
Over 3.5 rate
47.5%
2.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.41
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
21
1.91
PPG
1.81
56.5%
Win rate
52.4%
21.7%
Draw rate
23.8%
21.7%
Loss rate
23.8%
91.3%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
78.3%
Over 2.5 rate
61.9%
56.5%
Over 3.5 rate
38.1%
2.68
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.31
23
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.93
Goals for per game
2.15
85.7%
Scoring rate
80.0%
57.1%
BTTS rate
62.5%
2.87
Goals for per game
2.33
87.0%
Scoring rate
85.7%
65.2%
BTTS rate
66.7%
42
History Matches
40
2.93
Goals Mean
2.15
2.19
Goals Std
2.42
85.7%
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
73.8%
Scored 2+ rate
52.5%
57.1%
Scored 3+ rate
25.0%
2.87
Venue Goals Mean
2.33
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.19
Goals against per game
1.83
64.3%
Conceding rate
80.0%
1.22
Goals against per game
1.43
69.6%
Conceding rate
76.2%
42
History Matches
40
1.19
Conceded Mean
1.83
1.33
Conceded Std
1.72
26.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.5%
19.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.5%
1.22
Venue Conceded Mean
1.43
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
13.0%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
13.0%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
42
History Matches
40
0.82
Result entropy
0.93
2.73
Goal Difference Std
3.41
18.21
Stability score
6.60
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
42
Eligible Matches
39
24
Lead Matches
12
91.7%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.94
Lead Points Retention
0.89
7
Trailing Matches
12
14.3%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
42
Halftime Coverage Matches
39
1.43
First Half Goals For Mean
0.95
0.45
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
1.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.26
0.74
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.10
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
86.88
Rest days
87.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
9
Short Rest History Matches
10
1.44
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.60
20
Normal Rest History Matches
19
2.40
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.21
12
Long Rest History Matches
10
2.25
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.23
Portability PPG Std
0.44
0.46
Portability PPG Range
0.88
68.54
Portability Score
53.13
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
42
Clean History Matches
40
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO56.03
PPG0.50
GF0.78
GA-0.63
PPG0.10
PPG-0.40
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate15.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate6.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.78
Goals Std-0.24
Scored 1+ rate5.7%
Scored 2+ rate21.3%
Scored 3+ rate32.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.54
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.82
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.63
Conceded Std-0.38
Clean-sheet rate15.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.16
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.21
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.19
History Matches2
Result entropy-0.12
Goal Difference Std-0.67
Stability score11.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.35
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.79
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches12
Lead Win Rate8.3%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate-0.02
Trailing Win Rate6.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.27
Second Half Goals For Mean0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.36
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.21
Portability PPG Range-0.42
Portability Score15.42
Rest days-0.21
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.16
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.19
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Current Team ELO56.03
Current Opponent ELO-56.03
Current ELO Difference112.1
Expected score0.16
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance4.91
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ulaanbaatar

W
Hunters1–9Ulaanbaatar2 Nov · away
Pick: Ulaanbaatar 49% · hit
W
Ulaanbaatar1–0Deren29 Oct · home
Pick: Ulaanbaatar 46% · hit
W
Central Stallions0–1Ulaanbaatar25 Oct · away
Pick: Ulaanbaatar 49% · hit
W
Ulaanbaatar2–0Central Stallions18 Oct · home
Pick: Ulaanbaatar 58% · hit
W
Ulaanbaatar8–0Khovd Western14 Oct · home
Pick: Ulaanbaatar 75% · hit

Central Stallions

D
Central Stallions3–3Deren2 Nov · home
Pick: Deren 52% · missed
W
Hunters1–7Central Stallions29 Oct · away
Pick: Central Stallions 47% · hit
L
Central Stallions0–1Ulaanbaatar25 Oct · home
Pick: Ulaanbaatar 49% · hit
L
Ulaanbaatar2–0Central Stallions18 Oct · away
Pick: Ulaanbaatar 58% · hit
W
Central Stallions8–4Khovd Western4 Oct · home
Pick: Central Stallions 62% · hit

About this match

Ulaanbaatar and Central Stallions meet in Premier League on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 05:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Ulaanbaatar win 56.6%, draw 16.1%, Central Stallions win 27.3%. The pick is Ulaanbaatar win. Over 2.5 goals: 74.9%. Both teams to score: 61.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.