ScoreProb
Ligue 2 Algeria Round 9 2026

Hussein Dey vs Koléa

Hussein Dey Home · Elo 1,515
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Koléa Away · Elo 1,501
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Hussein Dey win
Hussein Dey winPick
48.3%
Draw
26.6%
Koléa win
25.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.9%
No53.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.542.4%
Under 2.557.6%

How much we know

Hussein Dey history46 matches
Koléa history42 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Hussein Dey are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,515 against 1,501. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Hussein Dey score more

    1.22 goals a game over 46 matches for Hussein Dey, against 0.95 over 42 for Koléa.

  • Hussein Dey concede fewer

    Hussein Dey concede 0.87 a game, Koléa 1.10.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    33% of Hussein Dey matches, against 38% for Koléa. The model puts this match at 42% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 9 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hussein Dey
Koléa
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1515.2
ELO
1501.0
46
ELO · Matches
42
1515.2
Current Team ELO
1501.0
1501.0
Current Opponent ELO
1515.2
14.18
Current ELO Difference
-14.18
0.52
Expected score
0.48
46
History Matches
42
0.02
Residual Mean
0.00
51.34
Overperformance
50.07
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.20
2.20
Goals for per game
0.60
1.60
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
0.90
1.30
Goals for per game
0.90
1.30
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.19
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.78
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.80
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.48
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.02
Overall performance9 signals
90
46
Matches
42
1.46
PPG
1.38
37.0%
Win rate
35.7%
34.8%
Draw rate
31.0%
28.3%
Loss rate
33.3%
67.4%
Over 1.5 rate
57.1%
32.6%
Over 2.5 rate
38.1%
13.0%
Over 3.5 rate
14.3%
1.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.30
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
21
1.75
PPG
0.90
50.0%
Win rate
19.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
25.0%
Loss rate
47.6%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
41.7%
Over 2.5 rate
52.4%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
19.0%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
24
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.22
Goals for per game
0.95
65.2%
Scoring rate
69.0%
45.7%
BTTS rate
47.6%
1.63
Goals for per game
0.95
79.2%
Scoring rate
66.7%
45.8%
BTTS rate
57.1%
46
History Matches
42
1.22
Goals Mean
0.95
1.20
Goals Std
0.82
65.2%
Scored 1+ rate
69.0%
37.0%
Scored 2+ rate
21.4%
13.0%
Scored 3+ rate
4.8%
1.63
Venue Goals Mean
0.95
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.87
Goals against per game
1.10
67.4%
Conceding rate
64.3%
0.88
Goals against per game
1.48
58.3%
Conceding rate
76.2%
46
History Matches
42
0.87
Conceded Mean
1.10
0.77
Conceded Std
1.13
15.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.6%
4.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.9%
0.88
Venue Conceded Mean
1.48
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
32.6%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
34.8%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
32.6%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
34.8%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
32.6%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
46
History Matches
42
0.99
Result entropy
1.00
1.46
Goal Difference Std
1.30
0.57
Stability score
0.15
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
45
Eligible Matches
42
12
Lead Matches
11
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
63.6%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.70
10
Trailing Matches
6
40.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
45
Halftime Coverage Matches
42
0.47
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.36
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.36
0.71
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.45
0.53
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
183.0
Rest days
183.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
27
Normal Rest History Matches
21
1.59
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.43
18
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.35
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.28
Portability PPG Std
0.15
0.68
Portability PPG Range
0.30
64.23
Portability Score
76.79
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
46
Clean History Matches
42
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO14.18
PPG0.08
GF0.27
GA-0.23
PPG0.85
PPG1.60
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate3.8%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate17.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches4
Goals Mean0.27
Goals Std0.38
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate15.5%
Scored 3+ rate8.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.67
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.49
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.23
Conceded Std-0.36
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate-0.13
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.02
History Matches4
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.16
Stability score0.42
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.46
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate11.4%
Lead Points Retention0.11
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate6.7%
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean0.26
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.13
Portability PPG Range0.38
Portability Score-12.57
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.16
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.02
Current Team ELO14.18
Current Opponent ELO-14.18
Current ELO Difference28.36
Expected score0.04
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Hussein Dey

L
GC Mascara5–1Hussein Dey30 Oct · away
Pick: Hussein Dey 34% · missed
W
Hussein Dey1–0RC Arba24 Oct · home
Pick: Hussein Dey 43% · hit
W
Hussein Dey3–0El Bayadh13 Oct · home
Pick: Hussein Dey 40% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Koléa

W
Koléa2–1Usm El Harrach30 Oct · home
Pick: Usm El Harrach 42% · missed
L
Koléa2–4GC Mascara24 Oct · home
Pick: Koléa 40% · missed
L
Koléa2–3Mostaganem13 Oct · home
Pick: Koléa 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Hussein Dey and Koléa meet in Ligue 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Hussein Dey win 48.3%, draw 26.6%, Koléa win 25.1%. The pick is Hussein Dey win. Over 2.5 goals: 42.4%. Both teams to score: 46.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.