ScoreProb
Ligue 2 Algeria Round 9 2026

WA Mostaganem vs El Bayadh

WA Mostaganem Home · Elo 1,471
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
El Bayadh Away · Elo 1,408
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: WA Mostaganem win
WA Mostaganem winPick
37.9%
Draw
31.3%
El Bayadh win
30.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.5%
No55.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.541.7%
Under 2.558.3%

How much we know

WA Mostaganem history43 matches
El Bayadh history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.9%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why WA Mostaganem are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • WA Mostaganem are rated 63 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,471 against 1,408. On rating alone WA Mostaganem would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • WA Mostaganem score far more

    1.12 goals a game over 43 matches for WA Mostaganem, against 0.55 over 49 for El Bayadh.

  • El Bayadh concede fewer

    WA Mostaganem concede 1.26 a game, El Bayadh 1.06.

  • WA Mostaganem games more often go over 2.5 goals

    49% of WA Mostaganem matches, against 24% for El Bayadh. The model puts this match at 42% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 6 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
WA Mostaganem
El Bayadh
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1471.4
ELO
1408.5
43
ELO · Matches
49
1471.4
Current Team ELO
1408.5
1408.5
Current Opponent ELO
1471.4
62.93
Current ELO Difference
-62.93
0.59
Expected score
0.41
43
History Matches
49
-0.03
Residual Mean
-0.09
47.61
Overperformance
43.73
-0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.40
1.00
Goals for per game
0.60
1.60
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
0.50
0.90
Goals for per game
0.60
1.50
Goals against per game
1.40
30.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.60
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.80
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.12
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
1.80
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.98
Overall performance9 signals
90
43
Matches
49
1.26
PPG
0.78
34.9%
Win rate
12.2%
20.9%
Draw rate
40.8%
44.2%
Loss rate
46.9%
65.1%
Over 1.5 rate
49.0%
48.8%
Over 2.5 rate
24.5%
16.3%
Over 3.5 rate
8.2%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.01
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
24
2.10
PPG
0.42
66.7%
Win rate
0.0%
9.5%
Draw rate
41.7%
23.8%
Loss rate
58.3%
57.1%
Over 1.5 rate
45.8%
52.4%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
14.3%
Over 3.5 rate
12.5%
1.42
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.93
21
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.12
Goals for per game
0.55
72.1%
Scoring rate
42.9%
46.5%
BTTS rate
34.7%
1.48
Goals for per game
0.38
95.2%
Scoring rate
29.2%
42.9%
BTTS rate
29.2%
43
History Matches
49
1.12
Goals Mean
0.55
0.97
Goals Std
0.70
72.1%
Scored 1+ rate
42.9%
27.9%
Scored 2+ rate
12.2%
9.3%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
1.48
Venue Goals Mean
0.38
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.26
Goals against per game
1.06
69.8%
Conceding rate
67.3%
0.76
Goals against per game
1.25
47.6%
Conceding rate
70.8%
43
History Matches
49
1.26
Conceded Mean
1.06
1.12
Conceded Std
0.96
39.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.6%
11.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.1%
0.76
Venue Conceded Mean
1.25
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
30.2%
Clean-sheet rate
32.7%
27.9%
Failed-to-score rate
57.1%
52.4%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
4.8%
Failed-to-score rate
70.8%
30.2%
Clean-sheet rate
32.7%
27.9%
Failed-to-score rate
57.1%
52.4%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
4.8%
Failed-to-score rate
70.8%
30.2%
Clean-sheet rate
32.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
43
History Matches
49
0.96
Result entropy
0.89
1.49
Goal Difference Std
1.01
3.91
Stability score
10.99
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
42
Eligible Matches
49
10
Lead Matches
3
70.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
1.00
19
Trailing Matches
19
15.8%
Non-loss rate
21.1%
5.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
42
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.36
First Half Goals For Mean
0.16
0.62
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
0.79
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.39
0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
183.0
Rest days
154.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
24
Normal Rest History Matches
19
1.29
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.68
18
Long Rest History Matches
29
1.28
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.76
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.13
Portability PPG Std
0.31
0.26
Portability PPG Range
0.70
79.61
Portability Score
61.80
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
43
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO62.93
PPG0.48
GF0.57
GA0.19
PPG1.68
PPG0.80
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.29
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate23.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.66
History Matches-6
Goals Mean0.57
Goals Std0.27
Scored 1+ rate29.2%
Scored 2+ rate15.7%
Scored 3+ rate9.3%
Venue Goals Mean1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.14
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean0.19
Conceded Std0.17
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate8.9%
Conceded 3+ rate5.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.49
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.20
History Matches-6
Result entropy0.07
Goal Difference Std0.48
Stability score-7.07
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.19
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.82
Eligible Matches-7
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate-0.30
Lead Points Retention-0.20
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.05
Trailing Win Rate5.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-7
First Half Goals For Mean0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.40
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.18
Portability PPG Range-0.44
Portability Score17.81
Rest days28.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.61
Long Rest History Matches-11
Long Rest Points Per Match0.52
Current Team ELO62.93
Current Opponent ELO-62.93
Current ELO Difference125.9
Expected score0.18
History Matches-6
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.88
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

WA Mostaganem

L
Blida1–0WA Mostaganem30 Oct · away
Pick: Blida 36% · hit
D
WA Mostaganem0–0Mostaganem24 Oct · home
Pick: WA Mostaganem 41% · missed
L
RC Arba2–1WA Mostaganem19 Oct · away
Pick: RC Arba 43% · hit
D
WA Mostaganem0–0RC Kouba14 Oct · home
Pick: RC Kouba 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

El Bayadh

D
Usm El Harrach0–0El Bayadh24 Oct · away
Pick: Usm El Harrach 52% · missed
L
Hussein Dey3–0El Bayadh13 Oct · away
Pick: Hussein Dey 40% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

WA Mostaganem and El Bayadh meet in Ligue 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: WA Mostaganem win 37.9%, draw 31.3%, El Bayadh win 30.8%. The pick is WA Mostaganem win. Over 2.5 goals: 41.7%. Both teams to score: 44.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.