ScoreProb
Ligue 2 Algeria Round 9 2026

Tiaret vs Mostaganem

Tiaret Home · Elo 1,495
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Mostaganem Away · Elo 1,420
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Tiaret win
Tiaret winPick
43.8%
Draw
30.4%
Mostaganem win
25.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.6%
No53.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.544.1%
Under 2.555.9%

How much we know

Tiaret history42 matches
Mostaganem history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Tiaret are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Tiaret are rated 75 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,495 against 1,420. On rating alone Tiaret would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Tiaret score far more

    1.17 goals a game over 42 matches for Tiaret, against 0.76 over 49 for Mostaganem.

  • Tiaret concede fewer

    Tiaret concede 1.10 a game, Mostaganem 1.43.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    38% of Tiaret matches, against 35% for Mostaganem. The model puts this match at 44% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 6 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Tiaret
Mostaganem
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1494.7
ELO
1419.7
42
ELO · Matches
49
1494.7
Current Team ELO
1419.7
1419.7
Current Opponent ELO
1494.7
75.01
Current ELO Difference
-75.01
0.61
Expected score
0.39
42
History Matches
49
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.08
49.62
Overperformance
44.43
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.17
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.40
1.20
Goals for per game
0.60
1.60
Goals against per game
2.60
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
0.50
1.50
Goals for per game
0.60
1.20
Goals against per game
3.10
40.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.60
1.57
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
3.10
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.76
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
2.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.38
Overall performance9 signals
90
42
Matches
49
1.33
PPG
0.96
35.7%
Win rate
22.4%
26.2%
Draw rate
28.6%
38.1%
Loss rate
49.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
53.1%
38.1%
Over 2.5 rate
34.7%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
22.4%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
24
2.00
PPG
0.54
57.1%
Win rate
12.5%
28.6%
Draw rate
16.7%
14.3%
Loss rate
70.8%
76.2%
Over 1.5 rate
45.8%
38.1%
Over 2.5 rate
37.5%
19.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.8%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
21
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.17
Goals for per game
0.76
66.7%
Scoring rate
46.9%
45.2%
BTTS rate
32.7%
1.67
Goals for per game
0.63
85.7%
Scoring rate
37.5%
52.4%
BTTS rate
33.3%
42
History Matches
49
1.17
Goals Mean
0.76
1.17
Goals Std
0.92
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
46.9%
28.6%
Scored 2+ rate
24.5%
14.3%
Scored 3+ rate
4.1%
1.67
Venue Goals Mean
0.63
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.10
Goals against per game
1.43
66.7%
Conceding rate
73.5%
0.90
Goals against per game
1.67
61.9%
Conceding rate
87.5%
42
History Matches
49
1.10
Conceded Mean
1.43
1.09
Conceded Std
1.48
28.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.7%
9.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.4%
0.90
Venue Conceded Mean
1.67
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.5%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
53.1%
38.1%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
62.5%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.5%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
53.1%
38.1%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
62.5%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
42
History Matches
49
0.99
Result entropy
0.95
1.61
Goal Difference Std
1.73
1.12
Stability score
5.07
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
42
Eligible Matches
49
13
Lead Matches
9
76.9%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.81
11
Trailing Matches
17
18.2%
Non-loss rate
17.6%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.9%
Goal timing5 signals
50
42
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.48
First Half Goals For Mean
0.37
0.45
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
0.69
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.39
0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
183.0
Rest days
154.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
21
Normal Rest History Matches
21
1.52
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.10
20
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.15
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.85
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.09
Portability PPG Std
0.56
0.18
Portability PPG Range
1.37
84.85
Portability Score
47.20
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
42
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO75.01
PPG0.37
GF0.41
GA-0.33
PPG1.46
PPG0.60
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate6.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate25.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.48
History Matches-7
Goals Mean0.41
Goals Std0.26
Scored 1+ rate19.7%
Scored 2+ rate4.1%
Scored 3+ rate10.2%
Venue Goals Mean1.04
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.55
History Matches-7
Conceded Mean-0.33
Conceded Std-0.40
Clean-sheet rate6.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.76
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.78
History Matches-7
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.12
Stability score-3.95
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.33
Eligible Matches-7
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate-0.01
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate0.5%
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches-7
First Half Goals For Mean0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.24
Second Half Goals For Mean0.30
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.47
Portability PPG Range-1.19
Portability Score37.65
Rest days28.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.43
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.30
Current Team ELO75.01
Current Opponent ELO-75.01
Current ELO Difference150.0
Expected score0.21
History Matches-7
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance5.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Tiaret

D
RC Arba2–2Tiaret30 Oct · away
Pick: RC Arba 41% · missed
D
Tiaret2–2RC Kouba24 Oct · home
Pick: RC Kouba 39% · missed
L
MC Saida1–0Tiaret13 Oct · away
Pick: MC Saida 50% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Mostaganem

W
Mostaganem1–0MC Saida30 Oct · home
Pick: Mostaganem 35% · hit
D
WA Mostaganem0–0Mostaganem24 Oct · away
Pick: WA Mostaganem 41% · missed
W
Koléa2–3Mostaganem13 Oct · away
Pick: Koléa 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Tiaret and Mostaganem meet in Ligue 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Tiaret win 43.8%, draw 30.4%, Mostaganem win 25.8%. The pick is Tiaret win. Over 2.5 goals: 44.1%. Both teams to score: 46.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.