ScoreProb
AFC Women's Champions League World Group Stage 2026

Hwacheon KSPO W vs Hồ Chí Minh City W

Hwacheon KSPO W Home · Elo 1,625
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Hồ Chí Minh City W Away · Elo 1,507
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Hwacheon KSPO W win
Hwacheon KSPO W winPick
63.8%
Draw
23.7%
Hồ Chí Minh City W win
12.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes40.9%
No59.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.9%
Under 2.539.1%

How much we know

Hwacheon KSPO W history50 matches
Hồ Chí Minh City W history6 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 23 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 08:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (63.8%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Hwacheon KSPO W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Hwacheon KSPO W are rated 118 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,625 against 1,507. On rating alone Hwacheon KSPO W would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Hwacheon KSPO W score more

    1.82 goals a game over 50 matches for Hwacheon KSPO W, against 1.33 over 6 for Hồ Chí Minh City W.

  • Hwacheon KSPO W concede fewer

    Hwacheon KSPO W concede 0.74 a game, Hồ Chí Minh City W 2.00.

  • Hồ Chí Minh City W games more often go over 2.5 goals

    36% of Hwacheon KSPO W matches, against 50% for Hồ Chí Minh City W. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hwacheon KSPO W
Hồ Chí Minh City W@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1624.8
ELO
1506.7
50
ELO · Matches
6
1624.8
Current Team ELO
1506.7
1506.7
Current Opponent ELO
1624.8
118.1
Current ELO Difference
-118.1
0.66
Expected score
0.34
50
History Matches
6
0.13
Residual Mean
0.03
59.16
Overperformance
50.62
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.20
0.80
Goals for per game
0.60
0.20
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
6
1.90
PPG
1.50
1.40
Goals for per game
1.33
0.40
Goals against per game
2.00
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.33
1.43
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.80
0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.53
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
1.41
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.05
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
6
2.08
PPG
1.50
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
28.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
12.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
72.0%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
36.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
28.0%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.37
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
4
2.15
PPG
0.75
63.0%
Win rate
25.0%
25.9%
Draw rate
0.0%
11.1%
Loss rate
75.0%
81.5%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
37.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
25.9%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.31
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.06
27
History Matches
4
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.82
Goals for per game
1.33
82.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
46.0%
BTTS rate
16.7%
1.96
Goals for per game
0.50
88.9%
Scoring rate
25.0%
55.6%
BTTS rate
0.0%
50
History Matches
6
1.82
Goals Mean
1.33
1.45
Goals Std
1.80
82.0%
Scored 1+ rate
50.0%
56.0%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
24.0%
Scored 3+ rate
16.7%
1.96
Venue Goals Mean
0.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.74
Goals against per game
2.00
56.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
0.85
Goals against per game
2.00
63.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
50
History Matches
6
0.74
Conceded Mean
2.00
0.80
Conceded Std
1.53
14.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
66.7%
4.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
50.0%
0.85
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
44.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
18.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
37.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
75.0%
44.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
18.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
37.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
75.0%
44.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
6
0.84
Result entropy
0.63
1.37
Goal Difference Std
2.05
16.50
Stability score
36.91
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
6
28
Lead Matches
0
85.7%
Lead Win Rate
—
0.90
Lead Points Retention
—
7
Trailing Matches
4
57.1%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
25.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
6
1.06
First Half Goals For Mean
0.00
0.27
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.33
0.76
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.33
0.49
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.94
Rest days
224.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
9
Short Rest History Matches
2
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
27
Normal Rest History Matches
0
2.15
Normal Rest Points Per Match
—
13
Long Rest History Matches
3
1.92
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.03
Portability PPG Std
—
0.05
Portability PPG Range
—
95.24
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
6
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreNormal Rest Points Per Match
ELO118.1
PPG0.58
GF0.49
GA-1.26
PPG1.40
PPG0.60
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches44
Clean-sheet rate10.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.32
History Matches23
Clean-sheet rate12.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.64
History Matches44
Goals Mean0.49
Goals Std-0.34
Scored 1+ rate32.0%
Scored 2+ rate22.7%
Scored 3+ rate7.3%
Venue Goals Mean1.46
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.07
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.37
History Matches44
Conceded Mean-1.26
Conceded Std-0.73
Clean-sheet rate10.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.53
Conceded 3+ rate-0.46
Venue Conceded Mean-1.15
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.86
History Matches44
Result entropy0.20
Goal Difference Std-0.69
Stability score-20.41
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.64
Eligible Matches43
Lead Matches28
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate32.1%
Trailing Win Rate-0.25
Halftime Coverage Matches43
First Half Goals For Mean1.06
First Half Goals Against Mean-1.07
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.58
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-146.1
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches7
Short Rest Points Per Match0.50
Normal Rest History Matches27
Long Rest History Matches10
Long Rest Points Per Match0.92
Current Team ELO118.1
Current Opponent ELO-118.1
Current ELO Difference236.2
Expected score0.33
History Matches44
Residual Mean0.10
Overperformance8.54
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Hwacheon KSPO W

L
Hwacheon KSPO W1–2April W1 Nov · home
Pick: Hwacheon KSPO W 55% · missed
D
Hwacheon KSPO W1–1Gumi Sportstoto W15 Oct · home
Pick: Hwacheon KSPO W 66% · missed
W
Gyeongju W1–2Hwacheon KSPO W7 Oct · away
Pick: Hwacheon KSPO W 49% · hit
D
Changnyeong W1–1Hwacheon KSPO W29 Aug · away
Pick: Hwacheon KSPO W 80% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Hồ Chí Minh City W

L
Hồ Chí Minh City W1–2East Bengal W1 Nov · home
Pick: East Bengal W 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Hwacheon KSPO W and Hồ Chí Minh City W meet in AFC Women's Champions League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 08:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Hwacheon KSPO W win 63.8%, draw 23.7%, Hồ Chí Minh City W win 12.5%. The pick is Hwacheon KSPO W win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.9%. Both teams to score: 40.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.