Naegohyang W vs INAC Kobe Leonessa W
Match result probability Model pick: INAC Kobe Leonessa W win
Naegohyang W win
31.7%
Draw
27.1%
INAC Kobe Leonessa W winPick
41.3%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes47.1%
No52.9%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.553.3%
Under 2.546.7%
How much we know
Naegohyang W history8 matches
INAC Kobe Leonessa W history33 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours INAC Kobe Leonessa W
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 23 h ahead1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
- Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 07:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre7 Nov · 08:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why INAC Kobe Leonessa W are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
INAC Kobe Leonessa W are rated 80 Elo points higher
Elo 1,639 against 1,559. On rating alone INAC Kobe Leonessa W would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.
-
Naegohyang W score more
3.00 goals a game over 8 matches for Naegohyang W, against 2.21 over 33 for INAC Kobe Leonessa W.
-
Defences are close
Naegohyang W concede 0.63 a game, INAC Kobe Leonessa W 0.58.
-
Naegohyang W games more often go over 2.5 goals
88% of Naegohyang W matches, against 55% for INAC Kobe Leonessa W. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
INAC Kobe Leonessa W@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1559.1
ELO
1638.7
8
ELO · Matches
33
1559.1
Current Team ELO
1638.7
1638.7
Current Opponent ELO
1559.1
-79.55
Current ELO Difference
79.55
0.39
Expected score
0.61
8
History Matches
33
0.37
Residual Mean
0.21
60.56
Overperformance
63.01
0.37
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
2.40
2.40
Goals for per game
2.00
0.20
Goals against per game
0.80
100.0%
Win rate
80.0%
8
Matches
10
2.63
PPG
2.20
3.00
Goals for per game
2.00
0.63
Goals against per game
0.80
87.5%
Win rate
70.0%
3.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
2.06
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.48
0.63
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.32
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.60
0.34
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
3.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.66
Overall performance9 signals 90
8
Matches
33
2.63
PPG
2.42
87.5%
Win rate
78.8%
0.0%
Draw rate
6.1%
12.5%
Loss rate
15.2%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
69.7%
87.5%
Over 2.5 rate
54.5%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
30.3%
3.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
Venue performance10 signals 100
4
Matches
16
3.00
PPG
2.50
100.0%
Win rate
81.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
6.3%
0.0%
Loss rate
12.5%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
62.5%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
0.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
4
History Matches
16
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
3.00
Goals for per game
2.21
87.5%
Scoring rate
87.9%
12.5%
BTTS rate
39.4%
2.75
Goals for per game
1.94
100.0%
Scoring rate
93.8%
25.0%
BTTS rate
37.5%
8
History Matches
33
3.00
Goals Mean
2.21
2.06
Goals Std
1.61
87.5%
Scored 1+ rate
87.9%
75.0%
Scored 2+ rate
63.6%
62.5%
Scored 3+ rate
30.3%
2.75
Venue Goals Mean
1.94
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.63
Goals against per game
0.58
25.0%
Conceding rate
51.5%
0.25
Goals against per game
0.56
25.0%
Conceding rate
43.8%
8
History Matches
33
0.63
Conceded Mean
0.58
1.32
Conceded Std
0.60
12.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
6.1%
12.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
0.25
Venue Conceded Mean
0.56
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
75.0%
Clean-sheet rate
48.5%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
12.1%
75.0%
Clean-sheet rate
56.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
6.3%
75.0%
Clean-sheet rate
48.5%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
12.1%
75.0%
Clean-sheet rate
56.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
6.3%
75.0%
Clean-sheet rate
48.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
8
History Matches
33
0.34
Result entropy
0.59
3.04
Goal Difference Std
1.84
65.70
Stability score
41.41
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
8
Eligible Matches
33
5
Lead Matches
16
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
93.8%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.96
1
Trailing Matches
5
0.0%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
8
Halftime Coverage Matches
33
1.38
First Half Goals For Mean
0.82
0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.24
1.63
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.39
0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
168.1
Rest days
76.98
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
1
Normal Rest History Matches
14
3.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.64
3
Long Rest History Matches
18
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.22
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
3
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.00
—
Portability PPG Range
0.01
—
Portability Score
99.10
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
8
Clean History Matches
33
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-79.55
PPG0.20
GF0.79
GA0.05
PPG0.50
PPG0.60
PPG0.43
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-25
Clean-sheet rate26.5%
Failed-to-score rate0.4%
History Matches-12
Clean-sheet rate18.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-25
Goals Mean0.79
Goals Std0.45
Scored 1+ rate0.00
Scored 2+ rate11.4%
Scored 3+ rate32.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.81
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.58
History Matches-25
Conceded Mean0.05
Conceded Std0.71
Clean-sheet rate26.5%
Conceded 2+ rate6.4%
Conceded 3+ rate12.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.31
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.18
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.72
History Matches-25
Result entropy-0.24
Goal Difference Std1.20
Stability score24.29
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.39
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.38
Eligible Matches-25
Lead Matches-11
Lead Win Rate6.3%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate-0.40
Trailing Win Rate-0.20
Halftime Coverage Matches-25
First Half Goals For Mean0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean0.23
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days91.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest History Matches-13
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.36
Long Rest History Matches-15
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.22
Current Team ELO-79.55
Current Opponent ELO79.55
Current ELO Difference-159.1
Expected score-0.23
History Matches-25
Residual Mean0.16
Overperformance-2.45
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.30
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Naegohyang W
W
Naegohyang W7–0Ayeyawady W1 Nov · home
Pick: Naegohyang W 56% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
INAC Kobe Leonessa W
W
INAC Kobe Leonessa W4–1Bam Khatoon W1 Nov · home
Pick: INAC Kobe Leonessa W 71% · hit L
Urawa Reds W2–0INAC Kobe Leonessa W24 Oct · away
Pick: Urawa Reds W 37% · hit L
INAC Kobe Leonessa W1–2JEF United W21 Oct · home
Pick: INAC Kobe Leonessa W 77% · missed W
Vegalta Sendai W3–4INAC Kobe Leonessa W18 Oct · away
Pick: INAC Kobe Leonessa W 38% · hit L
Elfen Saitama W2–1INAC Kobe Leonessa W30 Aug · away
Pick: INAC Kobe Leonessa W 58% · missed About this match
Naegohyang W and INAC Kobe Leonessa W meet in AFC Women's Champions League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 08:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Naegohyang W win 31.7%, draw 27.1%, INAC Kobe Leonessa W win 41.3%. The pick is INAC Kobe Leonessa W win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.3%. Both teams to score: 47.1%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.