ScoreProb
National 2 - Group C France Group C - 9 2026

Hyères vs Chasselay MDA

Hyères Home · Elo 1,523
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Chasselay MDA Away · Elo 1,508
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Hyères win
Hyères winPick
36.5%
Draw
32.1%
Chasselay MDA win
31.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.9%
No48.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.8%
Under 2.550.2%

How much we know

Hyères history44 matches
Chasselay MDA history47 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.5%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Hyères are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,523 against 1,508. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.18 goals a game over 44 matches for Hyères, against 1.30 over 47 for Chasselay MDA.

  • Hyères concede fewer

    Hyères concede 1.02 a game, Chasselay MDA 1.60.

  • Chasselay MDA games more often go over 2.5 goals

    32% of Hyères matches, against 55% for Chasselay MDA. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hyères
Chasselay MDA@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1523.2
ELO
1507.9
44
ELO · Matches
47
1523.2
Current Team ELO
1507.9
1507.9
Current Opponent ELO
1523.2
15.32
Current ELO Difference
-15.32
0.52
Expected score
0.48
44
History Matches
47
0.03
Residual Mean
0.01
52.08
Overperformance
50.43
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.00
1.80
Goals for per game
1.20
1.00
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.30
1.50
Goals for per game
1.20
1.00
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.75
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.63
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.36
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.40
Overall performance9 signals
90
44
Matches
47
1.41
PPG
1.43
34.1%
Win rate
38.3%
38.6%
Draw rate
27.7%
27.3%
Loss rate
34.0%
68.2%
Over 1.5 rate
83.0%
31.8%
Over 2.5 rate
55.3%
18.2%
Over 3.5 rate
27.7%
1.26
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.88
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
24
1.43
PPG
1.46
34.8%
Win rate
41.7%
39.1%
Draw rate
20.8%
26.1%
Loss rate
37.5%
69.6%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
39.1%
Over 2.5 rate
62.5%
21.7%
Over 3.5 rate
29.2%
1.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
23
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.18
Goals for per game
1.30
75.0%
Scoring rate
72.3%
54.5%
BTTS rate
57.4%
1.30
Goals for per game
1.46
87.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
65.2%
BTTS rate
58.3%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
44
History Matches
47
1.18
Goals Mean
1.30
1.03
Goals Std
1.11
75.0%
Scored 1+ rate
72.3%
27.3%
Scored 2+ rate
38.3%
11.4%
Scored 3+ rate
14.9%
1.30
Venue Goals Mean
1.46
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.02
Goals against per game
1.60
70.5%
Conceding rate
74.5%
1.13
Goals against per game
1.67
73.9%
Conceding rate
75.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
44
History Matches
47
1.02
Conceded Mean
1.60
0.87
Conceded Std
1.50
25.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.7%
6.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.1%
1.13
Venue Conceded Mean
1.67
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.5%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
27.7%
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
13.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
29.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.5%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
27.7%
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
13.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
29.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
44
History Matches
47
0.99
Result entropy
0.99
1.26
Goal Difference Std
1.88
0.91
Stability score
0.79
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
43
Eligible Matches
47
9
Lead Matches
14
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
64.3%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.71
9
Trailing Matches
12
44.4%
Non-loss rate
8.3%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
43
Halftime Coverage Matches
47
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
0.65
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.51
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.94
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.00
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
21
Normal Rest History Matches
27
1.62
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.22
22
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.27
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.56
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
3
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.13
Portability PPG Std
0.10
0.27
Portability PPG Range
0.20
78.79
Portability Score
83.33
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
44
Clean History Matches
47
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO15.32
PPG-0.02
GF-0.12
GA-0.57
PPG0.00
PPG-0.02
PPG0.80
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate4.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate1.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.12
Goals Std-0.08
Scored 1+ rate2.7%
Scored 2+ rate-0.11
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean-0.15
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.28
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean-0.57
Conceded Std-0.63
Clean-sheet rate4.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.20
Conceded 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Conceded Mean-0.54
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.72
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.62
Stability score0.11
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.20
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate13.5%
Lead Points Retention0.14
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate36.1%
Trailing Win Rate11.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.42
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.03
Portability PPG Range0.07
Portability Score-4.55
Rest days0.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.40
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.28
Current Team ELO15.32
Current Opponent ELO-15.32
Current ELO Difference30.64
Expected score0.04
History Matches-3
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.65
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Hyères

D
Toulon0–0Hyères31 Oct · away
Pick: Toulon 40% · missed
D
Hyères0–0Andrézieux17 Oct · home
Pick: Hyères 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Chasselay MDA

L
Chasselay MDA2–3Hauts Lyonnais31 Oct · home
Pick: Chasselay MDA 37% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Hyères and Chasselay MDA meet in National 2 - Group C on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Hyères win 36.5%, draw 32.1%, Chasselay MDA win 31.3%. The pick is Hyères win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.8%. Both teams to score: 51.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.