ScoreProb
National 2 - Group C France Group C - 9 2026

Troyes II vs Canet Roussillon

Troyes II Home · Elo 1,551
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Canet Roussillon Away · Elo 1,541
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 4 Nov, 07:21 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Troyes II win
Troyes II winPick
51.8%
Draw
21.7%
Canet Roussillon win
26.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.7%
No45.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.3%
Under 2.540.7%

How much we know

Troyes II history29 matches
Canet Roussillon history27 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 3 d 7 h ahead
    4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.8%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Troyes II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,551 against 1,541. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Troyes II score more

    2.00 goals a game over 29 matches for Troyes II, against 1.52 over 27 for Canet Roussillon.

  • Canet Roussillon concede fewer

    Troyes II concede 1.31 a game, Canet Roussillon 0.93.

  • Troyes II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    66% of Troyes II matches, against 44% for Canet Roussillon. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Troyes II
Canet Roussillon@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1551.4
ELO
1540.7
29
ELO · Matches
27
1551.4
Current Team ELO
1540.7
1540.7
Current Opponent ELO
1551.4
10.62
Current ELO Difference
-10.62
0.52
Expected score
0.48
29
History Matches
27
0.09
Residual Mean
0.08
55.38
Overperformance
54.48
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.40
2.20
Goals for per game
1.60
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.70
2.40
Goals for per game
1.70
1.30
Goals against per game
1.20
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.43
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.19
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.81
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.69
Overall performance9 signals
90
29
Matches
27
1.76
PPG
1.70
51.7%
Win rate
48.1%
20.7%
Draw rate
25.9%
27.6%
Loss rate
25.9%
82.8%
Over 1.5 rate
70.4%
65.5%
Over 2.5 rate
44.4%
44.8%
Over 3.5 rate
25.9%
2.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
Venue performance10 signals
100
15
Matches
13
2.13
PPG
1.77
66.7%
Win rate
53.8%
13.3%
Draw rate
15.4%
20.0%
Loss rate
30.8%
73.3%
Over 1.5 rate
84.6%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
61.5%
46.7%
Over 3.5 rate
30.8%
2.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.59
15
History Matches
13
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.00
Goals for per game
1.52
82.8%
Scoring rate
77.8%
62.1%
BTTS rate
48.1%
2.40
Goals for per game
1.77
80.0%
Scoring rate
84.6%
40.0%
BTTS rate
61.5%
0.00
Goals for per game
1.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
29
History Matches
27
2.00
Goals Mean
1.52
1.78
Goals Std
1.20
82.8%
Scored 1+ rate
77.8%
51.7%
Scored 2+ rate
44.4%
31.0%
Scored 3+ rate
22.2%
2.40
Venue Goals Mean
1.77
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.31
Goals against per game
0.93
72.4%
Conceding rate
59.3%
1.07
Goals against per game
1.08
53.3%
Conceding rate
69.2%
0.00
Goals against per game
3.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
29
History Matches
27
1.31
Conceded Mean
0.93
1.02
Conceded Std
0.94
44.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.9%
13.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.4%
1.07
Venue Conceded Mean
1.08
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
40.7%
17.2%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
46.7%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
40.7%
17.2%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
46.7%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
40.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
29
History Matches
27
0.93
Result entropy
0.96
2.09
Goal Difference Std
1.47
6.95
Stability score
4.25
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
18
Eligible Matches
17
5
Lead Matches
6
60.0%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.89
3
Trailing Matches
2
33.3%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
33.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
18
Halftime Coverage Matches
17
0.72
First Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.35
1.33
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.89
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.00
Rest days
76.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
10
Normal Rest History Matches
10
1.60
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.70
18
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.78
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.81
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.00
3
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.39
Portability PPG Std
0.09
0.79
Portability PPG Range
0.18
55.93
Portability Score
84.62
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
29
Clean History Matches
27
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO10.62
PPG0.05
GF0.48
GA0.38
PPG1.00
PPG0.36
PPG0.20
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate15.9%
Failed-to-score rate4.6%
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.48
Goals Std0.58
Scored 1+ rate5.0%
Scored 2+ rate7.3%
Scored 3+ rate8.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.63
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.24
History Matches2
Conceded Mean0.38
Conceded Std0.08
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Conceded 2+ rate18.9%
Conceded 3+ rate6.4%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.01
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.27
History Matches2
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.61
Stability score2.70
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.13
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.23
Lead Points Retention-0.22
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate33.3%
Trailing Win Rate33.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean0.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.42
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.30
Portability PPG Range0.61
Portability Score-28.68
Rest days0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.10
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.03
Current Team ELO10.62
Current Opponent ELO-10.62
Current ELO Difference21.25
Expected score0.03
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.90
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Troyes II

W
Bourges Foot 182–3Troyes II31 Oct · away
Pick: Bourges Foot 18 51% · missed
L
Rumilly Vallières3–0Troyes II29 Aug · away
Pick: Rumilly Vallières 62% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Canet Roussillon

D
Canet Roussillon0–0Lyon Duchere31 Oct · home
Pick: Canet Roussillon 53% · missed
L
Fréjus St-Raphaël4–0Canet Roussillon17 Oct · away
Pick: Fréjus St-Raphaël 58% · hit
L
Andrézieux2–0Canet Roussillon29 Aug · away
Pick: Andrézieux 61% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Troyes II and Canet Roussillon meet in National 2 - Group C on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 4 Nov, 07:21 UTC: Troyes II win 51.8%, draw 21.7%, Canet Roussillon win 26.5%. The pick is Troyes II win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.3%. Both teams to score: 54.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.