ScoreProb
National 2 - Group C France Group C - 9 2026

Istres vs Saint-Priest

Istres Home · Elo 1,517
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Saint-Priest Away · Elo 1,439
Stade Parsemain, Fos-sur-Mer Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Istres win
Istres winPick
59.3%
Draw
21.0%
Saint-Priest win
19.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.8%
No50.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.2%
Under 2.544.8%

How much we know

Istres history47 matches
Saint-Priest history46 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (59.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Istres are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Istres are rated 78 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,517 against 1,439. On rating alone Istres would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Istres score more

    1.36 goals a game over 47 matches for Istres, against 1.15 over 46 for Saint-Priest.

  • Istres concede fewer

    Istres concede 1.13 a game, Saint-Priest 1.63.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    47% of Istres matches, against 54% for Saint-Priest. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Istres
Saint-Priest@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1517.1
ELO
1439.0
47
ELO · Matches
46
1517.1
Current Team ELO
1439.0
1439.0
Current Opponent ELO
1517.1
78.16
Current ELO Difference
-78.16
0.61
Expected score
0.39
47
History Matches
46
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.07
50.84
Overperformance
45.19
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.19
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.20
0.60
Goals for per game
1.40
1.40
Goals against per game
3.40
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
0.60
1.10
Goals for per game
1.00
1.10
Goals against per game
2.20
20.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.22
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.89
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.20
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.54
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.67
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.60
Overall performance9 signals
90
47
Matches
46
1.45
PPG
1.07
38.3%
Win rate
26.1%
29.8%
Draw rate
28.3%
31.9%
Loss rate
45.7%
63.8%
Over 1.5 rate
71.7%
46.8%
Over 2.5 rate
54.3%
29.8%
Over 3.5 rate
26.1%
1.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.33
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
24
1.27
PPG
1.21
31.8%
Win rate
33.3%
31.8%
Draw rate
20.8%
36.4%
Loss rate
45.8%
59.1%
Over 1.5 rate
79.2%
36.4%
Over 2.5 rate
62.5%
22.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
22
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.36
Goals for per game
1.15
66.0%
Scoring rate
69.6%
48.9%
BTTS rate
60.9%
1.27
Goals for per game
1.29
54.5%
Scoring rate
75.0%
36.4%
BTTS rate
66.7%
0.00
Goals for per game
0.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
47
History Matches
46
1.36
Goals Mean
1.15
1.39
Goals Std
0.98
66.0%
Scored 1+ rate
69.6%
36.2%
Scored 2+ rate
37.0%
17.0%
Scored 3+ rate
6.5%
1.27
Venue Goals Mean
1.29
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.13
Goals against per game
1.63
68.1%
Conceding rate
82.6%
0.91
Goals against per game
1.96
59.1%
Conceding rate
87.5%
0.00
Goals against per game
3.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
47
History Matches
46
1.13
Conceded Mean
1.63
0.98
Conceded Std
1.27
34.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.7%
10.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.7%
0.91
Venue Conceded Mean
1.96
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
31.9%
Clean-sheet rate
17.4%
34.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.4%
40.9%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
45.5%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
31.9%
Clean-sheet rate
17.4%
34.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.4%
40.9%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
45.5%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
31.9%
Clean-sheet rate
17.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
47
History Matches
46
0.99
Result entropy
0.97
1.56
Goal Difference Std
1.33
0.53
Stability score
3.00
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
46
Eligible Matches
46
15
Lead Matches
10
86.7%
Lead Win Rate
60.0%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.67
10
Trailing Matches
14
30.0%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
46
Halftime Coverage Matches
46
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
0.76
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.72
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.91
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.08
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
23
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.61
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.04
23
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.22
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-3.00
4
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.15
Portability PPG Std
0.18
0.33
Portability PPG Range
0.36
76.53
Portability Score
73.68
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
47
Clean History Matches
46
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO78.16
PPG0.38
GF0.21
GA-0.50
PPG1.00
PPG0.06
PPG0.40
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate14.5%
Failed-to-score rate3.6%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate28.4%
Failed-to-score rate20.5%
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.21
Goals Std0.41
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate10.5%
Venue Goals Mean-0.02
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.33
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.50
Conceded Std-0.29
Clean-sheet rate14.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.12
Conceded 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Conceded Mean-1.05
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.49
History Matches1
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.23
Stability score-2.47
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.07
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate26.7%
Lead Points Retention0.24
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate1.4%
Trailing Win Rate10.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.28
Second Half Goals For Mean0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.03
Portability PPG Range-0.02
Portability Score2.84
Rest days0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.57
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.22
Current Team ELO78.16
Current Opponent ELO-78.16
Current ELO Difference156.3
Expected score0.22
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance5.65
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Istres

L
Rumilly Vallières5–0Istres31 Oct · away
Pick: Rumilly Vallières 50% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Saint-Priest

W
Saint-Priest2–1Chateauroux31 Oct · home
Pick: Chateauroux 50% · missed
D
Limonest1–1Saint-Priest17 Oct · away
Pick: Limonest 52% · missed
W
Saint-Priest2–1Lyon Duchere29 Aug · home
Pick: Saint-Priest 57% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Istres and Saint-Priest meet in National 2 - Group C on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. The match is played at Stade Parsemain, Fos-sur-Mer. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Istres win 59.3%, draw 21.0%, Saint-Priest win 19.7%. The pick is Istres win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.2%. Both teams to score: 49.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.