ScoreProb
Regionalliga - Bayern Germany Bayern - 18 2026

Illertissen vs Ansbach

Illertissen Home · Elo 1,615
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ansbach Away · Elo 1,477
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Illertissen win
Illertissen winPick
73.0%
Draw
14.8%
Ansbach win
12.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.4%
No41.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.578.1%
Under 2.521.9%

How much we know

Illertissen history70 matches
Ansbach history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (73.0%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Illertissen are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Illertissen are rated 138 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,615 against 1,477. On rating alone Illertissen would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.

  • Illertissen score more

    2.09 goals a game over 70 matches for Illertissen, against 1.81 over 70 for Ansbach.

  • Illertissen concede fewer

    Illertissen concede 1.33 a game, Ansbach 1.90.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    69% of Illertissen matches, against 73% for Ansbach. The model puts this match at 78% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 21 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Illertissen
Ansbach
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1615.0
ELO
1476.7
70
ELO · Matches
70
1615.0
Current Team ELO
1476.7
1476.7
Current Opponent ELO
1615.0
138.3
Current ELO Difference
-138.3
0.69
Expected score
0.31
70
History Matches
70
0.09
Residual Mean
-0.01
57.32
Overperformance
49.28
0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
0.00
2.40
Goals for per game
0.40
0.80
Goals against per game
3.40
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
1.00
2.90
Goals for per game
1.90
1.00
Goals against per game
2.40
70.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.37
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.21
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.40
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.74
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.97
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.61
Overall performance9 signals
90
70
Matches
70
1.77
PPG
1.37
51.4%
Win rate
38.6%
22.9%
Draw rate
21.4%
25.7%
Loss rate
40.0%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
88.6%
68.6%
Over 2.5 rate
72.9%
47.1%
Over 3.5 rate
55.7%
2.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.35
Venue performance10 signals
100
40
Matches
32
1.88
PPG
1.16
55.0%
Win rate
31.3%
22.5%
Draw rate
21.9%
22.5%
Loss rate
46.9%
85.0%
Over 1.5 rate
84.4%
70.0%
Over 2.5 rate
71.9%
45.0%
Over 3.5 rate
56.3%
2.13
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.03
40
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.09
Goals for per game
1.81
80.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
68.6%
2.05
Goals for per game
1.47
77.5%
Scoring rate
71.9%
55.0%
BTTS rate
65.6%
2.40
Goals for per game
0.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
70
History Matches
70
2.09
Goals Mean
1.81
1.60
Goals Std
1.68
80.0%
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
61.4%
Scored 2+ rate
42.9%
37.1%
Scored 3+ rate
28.6%
2.05
Venue Goals Mean
1.47
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.33
Goals against per game
1.90
75.7%
Conceding rate
84.3%
1.20
Goals against per game
2.09
70.0%
Conceding rate
87.5%
0.80
Goals against per game
3.25
40.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
70
History Matches
70
1.33
Conceded Mean
1.90
1.08
Conceded Std
1.37
37.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
55.7%
17.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
31.4%
1.20
Venue Conceded Mean
2.09
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
24.3%
Clean-sheet rate
15.7%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
22.5%
Failed-to-score rate
28.1%
60.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
24.3%
Clean-sheet rate
15.7%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
22.5%
Failed-to-score rate
28.1%
24.3%
Clean-sheet rate
15.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
70
History Matches
70
0.94
Result entropy
0.97
2.06
Goal Difference Std
2.35
6.38
Stability score
3.14
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
68
Eligible Matches
64
28
Lead Matches
18
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.87
18
Trailing Matches
22
27.8%
Non-loss rate
22.7%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
4.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
68
Halftime Coverage Matches
64
0.96
First Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.68
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
1.07
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.95
0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.17
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.06
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
2
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
47
Normal Rest History Matches
46
1.77
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.61
19
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.53
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.76
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
4
2.20
PPG
0.00
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
75.0%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.83
5
Current Competition Matches
4
2.20
Current Competition PPG
0.00
1.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.75
6
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.45
Portability PPG Std
0.62
1.25
Portability PPG Range
1.67
52.45
Portability Score
44.64
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
70
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO138.3
PPG0.40
GF0.27
GA-0.57
PPG2.20
PPG0.72
PPG2.20
PPG1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate8.6%
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate17.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.27
Goals Std-0.08
Scored 1+ rate0.0%
Scored 2+ rate18.6%
Scored 3+ rate8.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.58
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.84
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.57
Conceded Std-0.30
Clean-sheet rate8.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.19
Conceded 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Conceded Mean-0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.74
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.29
Stability score3.23
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.64
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate5.1%
Trailing Win Rate12.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.50
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG2.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean4.35
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.17
Portability PPG Range-0.42
Portability Score7.82
Rest days-0.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.50
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.16
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.76
Current Team ELO138.3
Current Opponent ELO-138.3
Current ELO Difference276.6
Expected score0.38
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.10
Overperformance8.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.36

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Illertissen

W
Illertissen4–0Greuther Fürth II30 Oct · home
Pick: Illertissen 67% · hit
L
Augsburg II2–1Illertissen24 Oct · away
Pick: Illertissen 57% · missed
W
Illertissen4–0Buchbach16 Oct · home
Pick: Illertissen 53% · hit
D
Aubstadt0–0Illertissen13 Oct · away
Pick: Illertissen 48% · missed
L
Illertissen0–2Bayern München II29 Aug · home
Pick: Illertissen 75% · missed

Ansbach

D
Ansbach0–0Augsburg II31 Oct · home
Pick: Augsburg II 47% · missed
L
SpVgg Unterhaching2–1Ansbach24 Oct · away
Pick: SpVgg Unterhaching 60% · hit
D
Ansbach1–1Greuther Fürth II17 Oct · home
Pick: Greuther Fürth II 46% · missed
D
FC Schweinfurt 051–1Ansbach13 Oct · away
Pick: FC Schweinfurt 05 58% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Illertissen and Ansbach meet in Regionalliga - Bayern on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Illertissen win 73.0%, draw 14.8%, Ansbach win 12.3%. The pick is Illertissen win. Over 2.5 goals: 78.1%. Both teams to score: 58.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.