ScoreProb
Liga Profesional Argentina Argentina Round 16 2026

Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra

Independiente Home · Elo 1,570
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Deportivo Riestra Away · Elo 1,488
Libertadores de America, Buenos Aires Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Independiente win
Independiente winPick
51.6%
Draw
27.5%
Deportivo Riestra win
20.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes43.7%
No56.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.538.8%
Under 2.561.2%

How much we know

Independiente history61 matches
Deportivo Riestra history60 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Independiente are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Independiente are rated 82 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,570 against 1,488. On rating alone Independiente would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Independiente score far more

    1.31 goals a game over 61 matches for Independiente, against 0.85 over 60 for Deportivo Riestra.

  • Defences are close

    Independiente concede 0.87 a game, Deportivo Riestra 0.83.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    31% of Independiente matches, against 27% for Deportivo Riestra. The model puts this match at 39% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Independiente
Deportivo Riestra
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1570.2
ELO
1487.8
61
ELO · Matches
60
1570.2
Current Team ELO
1487.8
1487.8
Current Opponent ELO
1570.2
82.36
Current ELO Difference
-82.36
0.62
Expected score
0.38
61
History Matches
60
0.05
Residual Mean
0.00
53.67
Overperformance
50.15
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.00
0.60
Goals for per game
0.60
1.40
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.00
1.10
Goals for per game
1.00
1.10
Goals against per game
1.20
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.04
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.89
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.90
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.66
Overall performance9 signals
90
61
Matches
60
1.66
PPG
1.28
47.5%
Win rate
28.3%
23.0%
Draw rate
43.3%
29.5%
Loss rate
28.3%
63.9%
Over 1.5 rate
51.7%
31.1%
Over 2.5 rate
26.7%
18.0%
Over 3.5 rate
8.3%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.37
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
26
2.07
PPG
0.85
60.7%
Win rate
15.4%
25.0%
Draw rate
38.5%
14.3%
Loss rate
46.2%
57.1%
Over 1.5 rate
61.5%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
30.8%
14.3%
Over 3.5 rate
7.7%
1.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.34
28
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.31
Goals for per game
0.85
68.9%
Scoring rate
56.7%
36.1%
BTTS rate
31.7%
1.54
Goals for per game
0.69
75.0%
Scoring rate
53.8%
25.0%
BTTS rate
42.3%
1.22
Goals for per game
0.61
77.8%
Scoring rate
38.9%
50.0%
BTTS rate
22.2%
61
History Matches
60
1.31
Goals Mean
0.85
1.36
Goals Std
0.91
68.9%
Scored 1+ rate
56.7%
36.1%
Scored 2+ rate
21.7%
13.1%
Scored 3+ rate
6.7%
1.54
Venue Goals Mean
0.69
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.87
Goals against per game
0.83
57.4%
Conceding rate
53.3%
0.46
Goals against per game
1.23
35.7%
Conceding rate
73.1%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.78
66.7%
Conceding rate
61.1%
61
History Matches
60
0.87
Conceded Mean
0.83
0.93
Conceded Std
0.99
23.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
20.0%
4.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.3%
0.46
Venue Conceded Mean
1.23
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
42.6%
Clean-sheet rate
46.7%
31.1%
Failed-to-score rate
43.3%
64.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
46.2%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
38.9%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
61.1%
42.6%
Clean-sheet rate
46.7%
31.1%
Failed-to-score rate
43.3%
64.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
46.2%
42.6%
Clean-sheet rate
46.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
61
History Matches
60
0.96
Result entropy
0.98
1.75
Goal Difference Std
1.37
4.29
Stability score
1.97
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
61
Eligible Matches
60
18
Lead Matches
17
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
58.8%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.71
17
Trailing Matches
8
23.5%
Non-loss rate
12.5%
5.9%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
61
Halftime Coverage Matches
60
0.54
First Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.41
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
0.77
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.38
0.46
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.98
Rest days
77.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
6
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.67
30
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.63
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.15
27
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.70
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.56
Competition & season17 signals
170
18
Matches
18
1.56
PPG
0.89
44.4%
Win rate
16.7%
22.2%
Draw rate
38.9%
33.3%
Loss rate
44.4%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
11.1%
22.2%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.31
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.30
18
Current Competition Matches
18
1.56
Current Competition PPG
0.89
0.22
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.17
7
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.20
Portability PPG Std
0.42
0.46
Portability PPG Range
1.00
70.96
Portability Score
54.07
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
61
Clean History Matches
60
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO82.36
PPG0.37
GF0.46
GA0.04
PPG0.67
PPG1.23
PPG-0.20
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate37.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.46
Goals Std0.45
Scored 1+ rate12.2%
Scored 2+ rate14.4%
Scored 3+ rate6.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.84
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.15
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.04
Conceded Std-0.05
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate3.0%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.13
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.38
Stability score2.33
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.24
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate24.5%
Lead Points Retention0.18
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate11.0%
Trailing Win Rate5.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean0.39
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.39
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.22
Portability PPG Range-0.54
Portability Score16.89
Rest days0.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.33
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.48
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.15
Current Team ELO82.36
Current Opponent ELO-82.36
Current ELO Difference164.7
Expected score0.23
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.52
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Independiente

D
Defensa Y Justicia1–1Independiente2 Nov · away
Pick: Independiente 37% · missed
L
Independiente0–1Boca Juniors25 Oct · home
Pick: Independiente 40% · missed
D
Talleres Cordoba0–0Independiente12 Oct · away
Pick: Independiente 40% · missed
L
Independiente0–3Gimnasia M.30 Aug · home
Pick: Independiente 53% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Deportivo Riestra

L
Deportivo Riestra0–3Talleres Cordoba31 Oct · home
Pick: Deportivo Riestra 42% · missed
L
Instituto Cordoba1–0Deportivo Riestra27 Oct · away
Pick: Instituto Cordoba 47% · hit
D
Deportivo Riestra1–1Union Santa Fe20 Oct · home
Pick: Deportivo Riestra 41% · missed
D
Deportivo Riestra1–1Central Cordoba de Santiago5 Oct · home
Pick: Deportivo Riestra 53% · missed
D
Deportivo Riestra1–1Velez Sarsfield29 Aug · home
Pick: Deportivo Riestra 36% · missed

About this match

Independiente and Deportivo Riestra meet in Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Libertadores de America, Buenos Aires. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Independiente win 51.6%, draw 27.5%, Deportivo Riestra win 20.9%. The pick is Independiente win. Over 2.5 goals: 38.8%. Both teams to score: 43.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.