ScoreProb
Persha Liga Ukraine Round 15 2026

Inhulets vs Kulykiv

Inhulets Home · Elo 1,470
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kulykiv Away · Elo 1,635
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Kulykiv win
Inhulets win
31.7%
Draw
24.9%
Kulykiv winPick
43.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.1%
No50.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.0%
Under 2.550.0%

How much we know

Inhulets history56 matches
Kulykiv history42 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 0 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 09:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Kulykiv are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Kulykiv are rated 165 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,635 against 1,470. On rating alone Kulykiv would be expected to take 72% of the points on offer.

  • Kulykiv score far more

    1.16 goals a game over 56 matches for Inhulets, against 1.95 over 42 for Kulykiv.

  • Kulykiv concede fewer

    Inhulets concede 1.27 a game, Kulykiv 0.79.

  • Kulykiv games more often go over 2.5 goals

    46% of Inhulets matches, against 64% for Kulykiv. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Inhulets
Kulykiv@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1469.6
ELO
1634.8
56
ELO · Matches
42
1469.6
Current Team ELO
1634.8
1634.8
Current Opponent ELO
1469.6
-165.2
Current ELO Difference
165.2
0.28
Expected score
0.72
56
History Matches
42
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.16
49.21
Overperformance
60.75
-0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.00
1.20
Goals for per game
1.60
2.40
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
2.30
1.20
Goals for per game
1.80
2.00
Goals against per game
0.90
30.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
0.75
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.60
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.70
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.47
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.04
Overall performance9 signals
90
56
Matches
42
1.32
PPG
2.17
35.7%
Win rate
66.7%
25.0%
Draw rate
16.7%
39.3%
Loss rate
16.7%
66.1%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
46.4%
Over 2.5 rate
64.3%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
21.4%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
21
1.33
PPG
2.29
36.4%
Win rate
71.4%
24.2%
Draw rate
14.3%
39.4%
Loss rate
14.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
81.0%
51.5%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
30.3%
Over 3.5 rate
14.3%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.78
33
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.16
Goals for per game
1.95
62.5%
Scoring rate
88.1%
44.6%
BTTS rate
42.9%
1.24
Goals for per game
1.95
63.6%
Scoring rate
81.0%
45.5%
BTTS rate
33.3%
1.25
Goals for per game
1.50
75.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
56
History Matches
42
1.16
Goals Mean
1.95
1.21
Goals Std
1.25
62.5%
Scored 1+ rate
88.1%
33.9%
Scored 2+ rate
61.9%
12.5%
Scored 3+ rate
28.6%
1.24
Venue Goals Mean
1.95
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.27
Goals against per game
0.79
69.6%
Conceding rate
50.0%
1.30
Goals against per game
0.62
66.7%
Conceding rate
42.9%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.25
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
56
History Matches
42
1.27
Conceded Mean
0.79
1.17
Conceded Std
0.94
35.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
21.4%
14.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.1%
1.30
Venue Conceded Mean
0.62
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
11.9%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
57.1%
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
19.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
11.9%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
57.1%
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
19.0%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
56
History Matches
42
0.98
Result entropy
0.79
1.72
Goal Difference Std
1.82
1.57
Stability score
21.03
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
53
Eligible Matches
39
11
Lead Matches
18
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
1.00
12
Trailing Matches
6
25.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
39
0.49
First Half Goals For Mean
0.90
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
0.66
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.08
0.74
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.90
Rest days
75.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
31
Normal Rest History Matches
23
1.39
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.04
23
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.35
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.44
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.00
PPG
1.75
25.0%
Win rate
50.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.83
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.75
-0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.25
7
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.44
Portability PPG Std
0.30
1.25
Portability PPG Range
0.68
53.33
Portability Score
62.35
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
56
Clean History Matches
42
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-165.2
PPG-0.85
GF-0.79
GA0.48
PPG-0.75
PPG-0.95
PPG-1.20
PPG-1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate-0.20
Failed-to-score rate25.6%
History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate-0.24
Failed-to-score rate17.3%
History Matches14
Goals Mean-0.79
Goals Std-0.05
Scored 1+ rate-0.26
Scored 2+ rate-0.28
Scored 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Goals Mean-0.71
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.15
History Matches14
Conceded Mean0.48
Conceded Std0.23
Clean-sheet rate-0.20
Conceded 2+ rate14.3%
Conceded 3+ rate7.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.68
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.30
History Matches14
Result entropy0.19
Goal Difference Std-0.11
Stability score-19.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.43
Eligible Matches14
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.08
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches14
First Half Goals For Mean-0.41
First Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.42
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.30
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.14
Portability PPG Range0.57
Portability Score-9.02
Rest days0.88
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.66
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.10
Current Team ELO-165.2
Current Opponent ELO165.2
Current ELO Difference-330.3
Expected score-0.44
History Matches14
Residual Mean-0.17
Overperformance-11.54
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.24

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Inhulets

L
Lokomotiv Kyiv2–1Inhulets31 Oct · away
Pick: Lokomotiv Kyiv 53% · hit
W
Inhulets2–0Kolos Kovalivka II25 Oct · home
Pick: Inhulets 44% · hit
L
Yarud Mariupol'4–1Inhulets17 Oct · away
Pick: Yarud Mariupol' 40% · hit
W
UCSA1–2Inhulets29 Aug · away
Pick: UCSA 48% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Kulykiv

W
Kulykiv2–0UCSA1 Nov · home
Pick: Kulykiv 51% · hit
L
Nyva Ternopil3–1Kulykiv25 Oct · away
Pick: Nyva Ternopil 36% · hit
D
Kulykiv1–1Oleksandria18 Oct · home
Pick: Oleksandria 43% · missed
W
Polissya II2–4Kulykiv12 Oct · away
Pick: Kulykiv 45% · hit
L
Kulykiv1–2Probiy Horodenka4 Oct · home
Pick: Kulykiv 66% · missed

About this match

Inhulets and Kulykiv meet in Persha Liga on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 09:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Inhulets win 31.7%, draw 24.9%, Kulykiv win 43.4%. The pick is Kulykiv win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.0%. Both teams to score: 49.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.