ScoreProb
Liga Profesional Argentina Argentina Round 16 2026

Instituto Cordoba vs Newells Old Boys

Instituto Cordoba Home · Elo 1,554
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Newells Old Boys Away · Elo 1,467
Estadio Presidente Peron, Cordoba Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Instituto Cordoba win
Instituto Cordoba winPick
57.7%
Draw
24.2%
Newells Old Boys win
18.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes43.3%
No56.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.541.2%
Under 2.558.8%

How much we know

Instituto Cordoba history49 matches
Newells Old Boys history44 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.7%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Instituto Cordoba are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Instituto Cordoba are rated 87 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,554 against 1,467. On rating alone Instituto Cordoba would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.00 goals a game over 49 matches for Instituto Cordoba, against 0.93 over 44 for Newells Old Boys.

  • Instituto Cordoba concede fewer

    Instituto Cordoba concede 0.98 a game, Newells Old Boys 1.36.

  • Newells Old Boys games more often go over 2.5 goals

    31% of Instituto Cordoba matches, against 39% for Newells Old Boys. The model puts this match at 41% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Instituto Cordoba
Newells Old Boys
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1553.5
ELO
1466.8
49
ELO · Matches
44
1553.5
Current Team ELO
1466.8
1466.8
Current Opponent ELO
1553.5
86.70
Current ELO Difference
-86.70
0.62
Expected score
0.38
49
History Matches
44
0.06
Residual Mean
-0.04
54.32
Overperformance
47.52
0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
1.40
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
0.20
Goals against per game
1.20
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.50
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
0.50
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
0.77
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.77
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.47
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
0.92
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.83
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
44
1.45
PPG
1.07
40.8%
Win rate
25.0%
22.4%
Draw rate
31.8%
36.7%
Loss rate
43.2%
59.2%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
30.6%
Over 2.5 rate
38.6%
14.3%
Over 3.5 rate
15.9%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
22
1.85
PPG
1.05
53.8%
Win rate
27.3%
23.1%
Draw rate
22.7%
23.1%
Loss rate
50.0%
73.1%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
38.5%
Over 2.5 rate
45.5%
15.4%
Over 3.5 rate
18.2%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.96
26
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.00
Goals for per game
0.93
63.3%
Scoring rate
65.9%
32.7%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.31
Goals for per game
0.91
73.1%
Scoring rate
59.1%
34.6%
BTTS rate
45.5%
1.11
Goals for per game
0.94
72.2%
Scoring rate
70.6%
33.3%
BTTS rate
52.9%
49
History Matches
44
1.00
Goals Mean
0.93
0.90
Goals Std
0.81
63.3%
Scored 1+ rate
65.9%
32.7%
Scored 2+ rate
25.0%
4.1%
Scored 3+ rate
2.3%
1.31
Venue Goals Mean
0.91
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.98
Goals against per game
1.36
59.2%
Conceding rate
75.0%
0.88
Goals against per game
1.64
53.8%
Conceding rate
81.8%
0.67
Goals against per game
1.47
55.6%
Conceding rate
76.5%
49
History Matches
44
0.98
Conceded Mean
1.36
1.13
Conceded Std
1.23
20.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.4%
12.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.9%
0.88
Venue Conceded Mean
1.64
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
40.8%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
36.7%
Failed-to-score rate
34.1%
46.2%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
26.9%
Failed-to-score rate
40.9%
44.4%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
40.8%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
36.7%
Failed-to-score rate
34.1%
46.2%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
26.9%
Failed-to-score rate
40.9%
40.8%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
44
0.97
Result entropy
0.98
1.60
Goal Difference Std
1.60
2.70
Stability score
2.28
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
44
16
Lead Matches
5
81.3%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.87
6
Trailing Matches
15
0.0%
Non-loss rate
26.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
6.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
44
0.47
First Half Goals For Mean
0.36
0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
0.53
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.08
Rest days
77.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
22
Normal Rest History Matches
18
1.64
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.89
26
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.35
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.25
Competition & season17 signals
170
18
Matches
17
1.83
PPG
1.06
55.6%
Win rate
23.5%
16.7%
Draw rate
35.3%
27.8%
Loss rate
41.2%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
76.5%
27.8%
Over 2.5 rate
41.2%
5.6%
Over 3.5 rate
17.6%
1.07
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.61
18
Current Competition Matches
17
1.83
Current Competition PPG
1.06
0.44
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.53
4
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.40
Portability PPG Std
0.47
0.80
Portability PPG Range
1.04
55.63
Portability Score
51.59
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
44
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO86.70
PPG0.38
GF0.07
GA-0.38
PPG0.77
PPG0.80
PPG1.20
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate15.8%
Failed-to-score rate2.6%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate28.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches5
Goals Mean0.07
Goals Std0.09
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate7.7%
Scored 3+ rate1.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.00
History Matches5
Conceded Mean-0.38
Conceded Std-0.09
Clean-sheet rate15.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.16
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.97
History Matches5
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.00
Stability score0.41
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.91
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate1.3%
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate-0.27
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.40
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.77
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.97
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.07
Portability PPG Range-0.24
Portability Score4.04
Rest days0.21
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.75
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.10
Current Team ELO86.70
Current Opponent ELO-86.70
Current ELO Difference173.4
Expected score0.24
History Matches5
Residual Mean0.10
Overperformance6.80
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Instituto Cordoba

D
Estudiantes L.P.3–3Instituto Cordoba1 Nov · away
Pick: Estudiantes L.P. 57% · missed
W
Instituto Cordoba1–0Deportivo Riestra27 Oct · home
Pick: Instituto Cordoba 47% · hit
W
Defensa Y Justicia0–1Instituto Cordoba16 Oct · away
Pick: Defensa Y Justicia 36% · missed
W
Instituto Cordoba1–0San Lorenzo1 Sep · home
Pick: Instituto Cordoba 49% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Newells Old Boys

D
Newells Old Boys1–1Union Santa Fe1 Nov · home
Pick: Union Santa Fe 40% · missed
D
San Lorenzo0–0Newells Old Boys24 Oct · away
Pick: San Lorenzo 51% · missed
W
Newells Old Boys2–1Central Cordoba de Santiago19 Oct · home
Pick: Newells Old Boys 39% · hit
L
Gimnasia M.1–0Newells Old Boys12 Oct · away
Pick: Gimnasia M. 53% · hit
D
Estudiantes L.P.0–0Newells Old Boys31 Aug · away
Pick: Estudiantes L.P. 64% · missed

About this match

Instituto Cordoba and Newells Old Boys meet in Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Presidente Peron, Cordoba. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Instituto Cordoba win 57.7%, draw 24.2%, Newells Old Boys win 18.1%. The pick is Instituto Cordoba win. Over 2.5 goals: 41.2%. Both teams to score: 43.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.