ScoreProb
Serie A Italy Round 11 2026

Inter vs Como

Inter Home · Elo 1,736
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Como Away · Elo 1,649
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Inter win
Inter winPick
62.6%
Draw
22.7%
Como win
14.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.5%
No45.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.0%
Under 2.543.0%

How much we know

Inter history96 matches
Como history68 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (62.6%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Inter are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Inter are rated 87 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,736 against 1,649. On rating alone Inter would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Inter score more

    1.97 goals a game over 96 matches for Inter, against 1.66 over 68 for Como.

  • Defences are close

    Inter concede 1.04 a game, Como 0.96.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    55% of Inter matches, against 49% for Como. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Inter
Como
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1736.0
ELO
1648.8
96
ELO · Matches
68
1736.0
Current Team ELO
1648.8
1648.8
Current Opponent ELO
1736.0
87.23
Current ELO Difference
-87.23
0.62
Expected score
0.38
96
History Matches
68
0.12
Residual Mean
0.10
59.79
Overperformance
57.98
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
1.80
1.80
Goals for per game
1.80
0.80
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
1.90
2.00
Goals for per game
1.50
0.90
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.98
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.10
Overall performance9 signals
90
96
Matches
68
2.05
PPG
1.82
61.5%
Win rate
51.5%
20.8%
Draw rate
27.9%
17.7%
Loss rate
20.6%
85.4%
Over 1.5 rate
76.5%
55.2%
Over 2.5 rate
48.5%
31.3%
Over 3.5 rate
27.9%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
Venue performance10 signals
100
47
Matches
36
2.23
PPG
1.69
70.2%
Win rate
47.2%
12.8%
Draw rate
27.8%
17.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
85.1%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
66.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
36.2%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
47
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.97
Goals for per game
1.66
88.5%
Scoring rate
79.4%
52.1%
BTTS rate
51.5%
2.21
Goals for per game
1.56
89.4%
Scoring rate
75.0%
55.3%
BTTS rate
50.0%
4.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
96
History Matches
68
1.97
Goals Mean
1.66
1.28
Goals Std
1.36
88.5%
Scored 1+ rate
79.4%
64.6%
Scored 2+ rate
45.6%
26.0%
Scored 3+ rate
29.4%
2.21
Venue Goals Mean
1.56
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.04
Goals against per game
0.96
62.5%
Conceding rate
60.3%
1.02
Goals against per game
1.06
66.0%
Conceding rate
63.9%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
96
History Matches
68
1.04
Conceded Mean
0.96
1.08
Conceded Std
1.08
27.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
22.1%
11.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.4%
1.02
Venue Conceded Mean
1.06
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
39.7%
11.5%
Failed-to-score rate
20.6%
34.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.1%
10.6%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
39.7%
11.5%
Failed-to-score rate
20.6%
34.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.1%
10.6%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
39.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
96
History Matches
68
0.85
Result entropy
0.93
1.75
Goal Difference Std
1.82
15.12
Stability score
6.84
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
96
Eligible Matches
68
44
Lead Matches
31
84.1%
Lead Win Rate
71.0%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.76
17
Trailing Matches
9
41.2%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
29.4%
Trailing Win Rate
22.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
96
Halftime Coverage Matches
68
0.86
First Half Goals For Mean
0.82
0.42
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
1.10
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.63
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.02
Rest days
78.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
9
Short Rest History Matches
3
2.78
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.67
71
Normal Rest History Matches
40
1.96
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.83
15
Long Rest History Matches
24
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.92
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
1.00
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
11
Competition Season Count
7
9
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.39
Portability PPG Std
0.21
1.27
Portability PPG Range
0.56
56.13
Portability Score
70.64
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
96
Clean History Matches
68
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO87.23
PPG0.23
GF0.31
GA0.09
PPG2.00
PPG0.54
PPG0.40
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches28
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches28
Goals Mean0.31
Goals Std-0.08
Scored 1+ rate9.1%
Scored 2+ rate19.0%
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.66
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.20
History Matches28
Conceded Mean0.09
Conceded Std0.00
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate5.0%
Conceded 3+ rate4.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.03
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.15
History Matches28
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.07
Stability score8.28
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.04
Eligible Matches28
Lead Matches13
Lead Win Rate13.1%
Lead Points Retention0.13
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate7.8%
Trailing Win Rate7.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches28
First Half Goals For Mean0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean0.27
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.00
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count5
Portability PPG Std0.18
Portability PPG Range0.70
Portability Score-14.51
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches6
Short Rest Points Per Match1.11
Normal Rest History Matches31
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.13
Long Rest History Matches-9
Long Rest Points Per Match0.08
Current Team ELO87.23
Current Opponent ELO-87.23
Current ELO Difference174.5
Expected score0.25
History Matches28
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.81
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Inter

W
Feyenoord0–3Inter3 Nov · away
Pick: Inter 46% · hit
L
AC Milan3–1Inter31 Oct · away
Pick: Inter 59% · missed
W
Venezia0–2Inter28 Oct · away
Pick: Inter 55% · hit
W
Inter2–1Fiorentina25 Oct · home
Pick: Inter 70% · hit
W
Inter1–0Shakhtar Donetsk21 Oct · home
Pick: Inter 53% · hit

Como

W
Como1–0Venezia1 Nov · home
Pick: Como 53% · hit
W
Torino1–3Como27 Oct · away
Pick: Como 40% · hit
W
Como2–0Sassuolo24 Oct · home
Pick: Como 59% · hit
W
Como4–1Manchester United21 Oct · home
Pick: Como 38% · hit
W
Fiorentina1–3Como18 Oct · away
Pick: Como 38% · hit

About this match

Inter and Como meet in Serie A on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Inter win 62.6%, draw 22.7%, Como win 14.7%. The pick is Inter win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.0%. Both teams to score: 54.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.