ScoreProb
Serie A Italy Round 11 2026

Napoli vs Lazio

Napoli Home · Elo 1,639
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Lazio Away · Elo 1,606
Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Napoli win
Napoli winPick
50.7%
Draw
26.9%
Lazio win
22.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.4%
No54.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.8%
Under 2.554.2%

How much we know

Napoli history78 matches
Lazio history77 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.7%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Napoli are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Napoli are rated 33 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,639 against 1,606. On rating alone Napoli would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Napoli score more

    1.55 goals a game over 78 matches for Napoli, against 1.30 over 77 for Lazio.

  • Defences are close

    Napoli concede 1.03 a game, Lazio 1.09.

  • Napoli games more often go over 2.5 goals

    47% of Napoli matches, against 36% for Lazio. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Napoli
Lazio
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1638.6
ELO
1605.9
78
ELO · Matches
77
1638.6
Current Team ELO
1605.9
1605.9
Current Opponent ELO
1638.6
32.68
Current ELO Difference
-32.68
0.55
Expected score
0.45
78
History Matches
77
0.10
Residual Mean
0.06
58.20
Overperformance
55.16
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.20
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
2.40
2.60
Goals for per game
1.80
0.80
Goals against per game
0.80
80.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
2.10
2.00
Goals for per game
2.30
1.00
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
70.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
1.55
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.19
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.18
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.98
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
1.73
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.55
Overall performance9 signals
90
78
Matches
77
1.87
PPG
1.53
53.8%
Win rate
40.3%
25.6%
Draw rate
32.5%
20.5%
Loss rate
27.3%
78.2%
Over 1.5 rate
70.1%
47.4%
Over 2.5 rate
36.4%
23.1%
Over 3.5 rate
20.8%
1.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
Venue performance10 signals
100
46
Matches
40
2.13
PPG
1.55
63.0%
Win rate
42.5%
23.9%
Draw rate
27.5%
13.0%
Loss rate
30.0%
84.8%
Over 1.5 rate
57.5%
56.5%
Over 2.5 rate
27.5%
28.3%
Over 3.5 rate
10.0%
1.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.48
46
History Matches
40
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.55
Goals for per game
1.30
82.1%
Scoring rate
66.2%
52.6%
BTTS rate
40.3%
1.83
Goals for per game
0.93
89.1%
Scoring rate
57.5%
60.9%
BTTS rate
30.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
78
History Matches
77
1.55
Goals Mean
1.30
1.11
Goals Std
1.35
82.1%
Scored 1+ rate
66.2%
52.6%
Scored 2+ rate
39.0%
14.1%
Scored 3+ rate
11.7%
1.83
Venue Goals Mean
0.93
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.03
Goals against per game
1.09
62.8%
Conceding rate
66.2%
0.98
Goals against per game
0.93
65.2%
Conceding rate
60.0%
0.00
Goals against per game
0.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
78
History Matches
77
1.03
Conceded Mean
1.09
1.06
Conceded Std
1.02
29.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.5%
6.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.8%
0.98
Venue Conceded Mean
0.93
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
37.2%
Clean-sheet rate
33.8%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
33.8%
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
10.9%
Failed-to-score rate
42.5%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
37.2%
Clean-sheet rate
33.8%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
33.8%
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
10.9%
Failed-to-score rate
42.5%
37.2%
Clean-sheet rate
33.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
78
History Matches
77
0.92
Result entropy
0.99
1.51
Goal Difference Std
1.74
8.32
Stability score
1.16
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
78
Eligible Matches
77
41
Lead Matches
20
82.9%
Lead Win Rate
85.0%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.90
16
Trailing Matches
21
37.5%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
4.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
78
Halftime Coverage Matches
77
0.86
First Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.41
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
0.69
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.70
Rest days
75.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
6
2.20
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
51
Normal Rest History Matches
50
1.86
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.66
21
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.86
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.35
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
3.00
100.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
8
Competition Season Count
9
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.39
Portability PPG Std
0.60
1.00
Portability PPG Range
1.80
56.30
Portability Score
45.58
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
78
Clean History Matches
77
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO32.68
PPG0.34
GF0.25
GA-0.07
PPG0.00
PPG0.58
PPG0.20
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate3.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate-0.32
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.25
Goals Std-0.24
Scored 1+ rate15.8%
Scored 2+ rate13.6%
Scored 3+ rate2.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.64
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.07
Conceded Std0.04
Clean-sheet rate3.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean0.05
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.20
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std-0.23
Stability score7.16
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.31
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.82
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches21
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate8.9%
Trailing Win Rate7.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.39
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.21
Portability PPG Range-0.80
Portability Score10.72
Rest days1.91
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.87
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.20
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.51
Current Team ELO32.68
Current Opponent ELO-32.68
Current ELO Difference65.37
Expected score0.09
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance3.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Napoli

L
Juventus2–0Napoli1 Nov · away
Pick: Juventus 38% · hit
W
Monza1–4Napoli28 Oct · away
Pick: Napoli 51% · hit
D
Napoli3–3AS Roma24 Oct · home
Pick: AS Roma 39% · missed
W
Napoli4–3Bodo/Glimt20 Oct · home
Pick: Bodo/Glimt 44% · missed
L
Venezia1–0Napoli17 Oct · away
Pick: Napoli 47% · missed

Lazio

W
Lazio2–1Cagliari1 Nov · home
Pick: Lazio 49% · hit
W
Sassuolo2–6Lazio27 Oct · away
Pick: Lazio 41% · hit
W
Lazio2–1Parma24 Oct · home
Pick: Lazio 63% · hit
W
Juventus0–3Lazio18 Oct · away
Pick: Juventus 52% · missed
W
Lazio1–0Genoa30 Aug · home
Pick: Lazio 65% · hit

About this match

Napoli and Lazio meet in Serie A on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:30 UTC. The match is played at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Napoli win 50.7%, draw 26.9%, Lazio win 22.4%. The pick is Napoli win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.8%. Both teams to score: 45.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.