ScoreProb
Serie D - Girone H Italy Group H - 11 2026

Ischia vs Gravina

Ischia Home · Elo 1,494
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Gravina Away · Elo 1,551
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Gravina win
Ischia win
30.0%
Draw
27.8%
Gravina winPick
42.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.2%
No48.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.3%
Under 2.548.7%

How much we know

Ischia history50 matches
Gravina history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Gravina are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Gravina are rated 57 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,551 against 1,494. On rating alone Gravina would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Gravina score more

    1.02 goals a game over 50 matches for Ischia, against 1.41 over 49 for Gravina.

  • Gravina concede fewer

    Ischia concede 1.38 a game, Gravina 1.22.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    44% of Ischia matches, against 47% for Gravina. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 1 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ischia
Gravina
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1493.8
ELO
1550.5
50
ELO · Matches
49
1493.8
Current Team ELO
1550.5
1550.5
Current Opponent ELO
1493.8
-56.70
Current ELO Difference
56.70
0.42
Expected score
0.58
50
History Matches
49
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.05
49.30
Overperformance
53.27
-0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.24
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.60
1.00
Goals for per game
3.00
1.40
Goals against per game
0.40
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
2.20
0.70
Goals for per game
2.00
2.00
Goals against per game
0.70
30.0%
Win rate
70.0%
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
0.64
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.00
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
1.61
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.90
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.45
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
49
1.30
PPG
1.49
34.0%
Win rate
40.8%
28.0%
Draw rate
26.5%
38.0%
Loss rate
32.7%
78.0%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
44.0%
Over 2.5 rate
46.9%
18.0%
Over 3.5 rate
30.6%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.94
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
26
1.58
PPG
1.12
45.8%
Win rate
30.8%
20.8%
Draw rate
19.2%
33.3%
Loss rate
50.0%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
73.1%
54.2%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
30.8%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.23
24
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.02
Goals for per game
1.41
66.0%
Scoring rate
71.4%
50.0%
BTTS rate
46.9%
1.29
Goals for per game
1.23
79.2%
Scoring rate
69.2%
58.3%
BTTS rate
42.3%
50
History Matches
49
1.02
Goals Mean
1.41
0.93
Goals Std
1.43
66.0%
Scored 1+ rate
71.4%
28.0%
Scored 2+ rate
36.7%
8.0%
Scored 3+ rate
14.3%
1.29
Venue Goals Mean
1.23
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.38
Goals against per game
1.22
78.0%
Conceding rate
67.3%
1.25
Goals against per game
1.50
79.2%
Conceding rate
73.1%
50
History Matches
49
1.38
Conceded Mean
1.22
1.18
Conceded Std
1.11
34.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.8%
18.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.2%
1.25
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
22.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.7%
34.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
22.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.7%
34.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
22.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
49
0.99
Result entropy
0.99
1.72
Goal Difference Std
1.94
0.70
Stability score
1.40
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
50
Eligible Matches
49
16
Lead Matches
18
81.3%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.74
15
Trailing Matches
9
26.7%
Non-loss rate
11.1%
6.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
0.44
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.78
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
99.91
Rest days
189.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
31
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.45
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.81
17
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.18
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.02
Portability PPG Std
0.17
0.04
Portability PPG Range
0.33
95.89
Portability Score
75.08
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-56.70
PPG-0.19
GF-0.39
GA0.16
PPG0.47
PPG-0.80
PPG-1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate5.4%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.39
Goals Std-0.50
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate-0.09
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean0.06
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.36
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.16
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate5.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.25
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.71
History Matches1
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.23
Stability score-0.70
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.55
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate14.6%
Lead Points Retention0.13
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate15.6%
Trailing Win Rate6.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean0.19
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.14
Portability PPG Range-0.29
Portability Score20.81
Rest days-89.11
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.35
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.18
Current Team ELO-56.70
Current Opponent ELO56.70
Current ELO Difference-113.4
Expected score-0.16
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-3.97
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.36

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ischia

W
USD Palmese1–2Ischia1 Nov · away
Pick: Ischia 39% · hit
D
Ischia1–1Martina Franca25 Oct · home
Pick: Martina Franca 42% · missed
L
Manfredonia2–0Ischia18 Oct · away
Pick: Manfredonia 36% · hit
D
Ischia1–1Ebolitana4 Oct · home
Pick: Ischia 66% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Gravina

W
Gravina2–1Nocerina1 Nov · home
Pick: Nocerina 40% · missed
D
Ebolitana2–2Gravina25 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 35% · hit
L
Virtus Francavilla3–0Gravina7 Oct · away
Pick: Gravina 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Ischia and Gravina meet in Serie D - Girone H on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Ischia win 30.0%, draw 27.8%, Gravina win 42.2%. The pick is Gravina win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.3%. Both teams to score: 51.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.