Nocerina vs Real Forio 2014
Nocerina
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Real Forio 2014
Match result probability Model pick: Nocerina win
Nocerina winPick
64.2%
Draw
23.2%
Real Forio 2014 win
12.5%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes47.6%
No52.4%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.553.1%
Under 2.546.9%
How much we know
Nocerina history54 matches
Real Forio 2014 history0 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Nocerina
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 12:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (64.2%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.
Why Nocerina are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Nocerina are rated 28 Elo points higher
Elo 1,528 against 1,500. On rating alone Nocerina would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Nocerina
Real Forio 2014
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1528.3
ELO
1500.0
54
ELO · Matches
0
1528.3
Current Team ELO
1500.0
1500.0
Current Opponent ELO
1528.3
28.26
Current ELO Difference
-28.26
0.54
Expected score
0.46
54
History Matches
0
0.03
Residual Mean
—
51.90
Overperformance
—
-0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
—
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
0
0.60
PPG
—
0.20
Goals for per game
—
0.60
Goals against per game
—
0.0%
Win rate
—
10
Matches
0
0.90
PPG
—
0.30
Goals for per game
—
0.50
Goals against per game
—
10.0%
Win rate
—
0.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
—
0.46
Recent 10 Goals Std
—
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
—
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
—
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
—
0.60
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
—
Overall performance9 signals 90
54
Matches
0
1.69
PPG
—
44.4%
Win rate
—
35.2%
Draw rate
—
20.4%
Loss rate
—
68.5%
Over 1.5 rate
—
38.9%
Over 2.5 rate
—
24.1%
Over 3.5 rate
—
1.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
Venue performance10 signals 100
28
Matches
0
1.75
PPG
—
46.4%
Win rate
—
35.7%
Draw rate
—
17.9%
Loss rate
—
78.6%
Over 1.5 rate
—
39.3%
Over 2.5 rate
—
17.9%
Over 3.5 rate
—
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
28
History Matches
0
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.44
Goals for per game
—
77.8%
Scoring rate
—
51.9%
BTTS rate
—
1.61
Goals for per game
—
78.6%
Scoring rate
—
53.6%
BTTS rate
—
54
History Matches
0
1.44
Goals Mean
—
1.24
Goals Std
—
77.8%
Scored 1+ rate
—
38.9%
Scored 2+ rate
—
18.5%
Scored 3+ rate
—
1.61
Venue Goals Mean
—
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.93
Goals against per game
—
61.1%
Conceding rate
—
0.86
Goals against per game
—
64.3%
Conceding rate
—
54
History Matches
0
0.93
Conceded Mean
—
0.94
Conceded Std
—
24.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
—
5.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
—
0.86
Venue Conceded Mean
—
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
—
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
—
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
—
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
—
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
—
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
—
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
—
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
—
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
—
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
54
History Matches
0
0.96
Result entropy
—
1.46
Goal Difference Std
—
4.24
Stability score
—
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
54
Eligible Matches
0
21
Lead Matches
0
76.2%
Lead Win Rate
—
0.83
Lead Points Retention
—
10
Trailing Matches
0
30.0%
Non-loss rate
—
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
—
Goal timing5 signals 50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
0
0.70
First Half Goals For Mean
—
0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean
—
0.74
Second Half Goals For Mean
—
0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
—
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
189.0
Rest days
—
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
35
Normal Rest History Matches
0
1.86
Normal Rest Points Per Match
—
17
Long Rest History Matches
0
1.35
Long Rest Points Per Match
—
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
0
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
0.37
Portability PPG Std
—
0.87
Portability PPG Range
—
57.20
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
54
Clean History Matches
0
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGGFGAPPGPPGPPGPPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateGoals MeanGoals StdScored 1+ rateScored 2+ rateScored 3+ rateVenue Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals StdConceded MeanConceded StdClean-sheet rateConceded 2+ rateConceded 3+ rateVenue Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded StdResult entropyGoal Difference StdStability scoreRecent 10 Result EntropyRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateFirst Half Goals For MeanFirst Half Goals Against MeanSecond Half Goals For MeanSecond Half Goals Against MeanCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreRest daysShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per MatchResidual MeanOverperformanceRecent 10 Residual Mean
ELO28.26
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches54
History Matches28
History Matches54
History Matches54
History Matches54
Eligible Matches54
Lead Matches21
Trailing Matches10
Halftime Coverage Matches54
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches35
Long Rest History Matches17
Current Team ELO28.26
Current Opponent ELO-28.26
Current ELO Difference56.51
Expected score0.08
History Matches54
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Nocerina
L
Gravina2–1Nocerina1 Nov · away
Pick: Nocerina 40% · missed L
Nocerina1–2Gladiator25 Oct · home
Pick: Nocerina 64% · missed W
Melfi0–1Nocerina4 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 37% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Real Forio 2014
D
Real Forio 20141–1Real Normanna1 Nov · home
Pick: Real Normanna 35% · missed L
Francavilla2–1Real Forio 201425 Oct · away
Pick: Francavilla 70% · hit L
Real Forio 20141–2Turris18 Oct · home
Pick: Real Forio 2014 40% · missed L
Fidelis Andria2–1Real Forio 20144 Oct · away
Pick: Fidelis Andria 59% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Nocerina and Real Forio 2014 meet in Serie D - Girone H on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Nocerina win 64.2%, draw 23.2%, Real Forio 2014 win 12.5%. The pick is Nocerina win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.1%. Both teams to score: 47.6%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.