ScoreProb
HNL Croatia Round 13 2026

Istra 1961 vs HNK Rijeka

Istra 1961 Home · Elo 1,514
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
HNK Rijeka Away · Elo 1,651
Stadion Aldo Drosina, Pula Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Istra 1961 win
Istra 1961 winPick
36.2%
Draw
28.1%
HNK Rijeka win
35.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.5%
No51.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.0%
Under 2.554.0%

How much we know

Istra 1961 history69 matches
HNK Rijeka history90 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.2%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Istra 1961 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • HNK Rijeka are rated 136 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,651 against 1,514. On rating alone HNK Rijeka would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.32 goals a game over 69 matches for Istra 1961, against 1.39 over 90 for HNK Rijeka.

  • HNK Rijeka concede fewer

    Istra 1961 concede 1.20 a game, HNK Rijeka 0.90.

  • Istra 1961 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    52% of Istra 1961 matches, against 40% for HNK Rijeka. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Istra 1961
HNK Rijeka@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1514.1
ELO
1650.5
69
ELO · Matches
90
1514.1
Current Team ELO
1650.5
1650.5
Current Opponent ELO
1514.1
-136.4
Current ELO Difference
136.4
0.31
Expected score
0.69
69
History Matches
90
0.01
Residual Mean
0.08
50.92
Overperformance
56.62
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.26
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.00
2.20
Goals for per game
1.40
2.00
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
2.50
1.80
Goals for per game
1.60
1.80
Goals against per game
0.70
20.0%
Win rate
80.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
0.75
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
1.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.22
Overall performance9 signals
90
69
Matches
90
1.38
PPG
1.70
36.2%
Win rate
48.9%
29.0%
Draw rate
23.3%
34.8%
Loss rate
27.8%
72.5%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
52.2%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
23.2%
Over 3.5 rate
22.2%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
46
1.66
PPG
1.39
45.7%
Win rate
37.0%
28.6%
Draw rate
28.3%
25.7%
Loss rate
34.8%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
65.2%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
37.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
21.7%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
35
History Matches
46
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.32
Goals for per game
1.39
69.6%
Scoring rate
71.1%
53.6%
BTTS rate
38.9%
1.54
Goals for per game
1.17
77.1%
Scoring rate
65.2%
57.1%
BTTS rate
41.3%
2.25
Goals for per game
1.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
75.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
69
History Matches
90
1.32
Goals Mean
1.39
1.22
Goals Std
1.25
69.6%
Scored 1+ rate
71.1%
42.0%
Scored 2+ rate
38.9%
13.0%
Scored 3+ rate
21.1%
1.54
Venue Goals Mean
1.17
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.20
Goals against per game
0.90
73.9%
Conceding rate
57.8%
1.09
Goals against per game
1.04
71.4%
Conceding rate
67.4%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.67
75.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
69
History Matches
90
1.20
Conceded Mean
0.90
0.99
Conceded Std
0.98
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.6%
11.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
3.3%
1.09
Venue Conceded Mean
1.04
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
42.2%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
28.9%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
32.6%
22.9%
Failed-to-score rate
34.8%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
42.2%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
28.9%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
32.6%
22.9%
Failed-to-score rate
34.8%
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
42.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
69
History Matches
90
1.00
Result entropy
0.95
1.60
Goal Difference Std
1.71
0.41
Stability score
4.86
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
68
Eligible Matches
90
20
Lead Matches
33
90.0%
Lead Win Rate
75.8%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.82
22
Trailing Matches
23
22.7%
Non-loss rate
26.1%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
13.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
68
Halftime Coverage Matches
90
0.72
First Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.69
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.38
0.60
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.51
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.02
Rest days
76.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
13
1.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.77
38
Normal Rest History Matches
61
1.53
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.70
27
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.15
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.53
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
2.00
25.0%
Win rate
66.7%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
75.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
4
Current Competition Matches
3
1.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
7
Competition Season Count
10
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
9
0.30
Portability PPG Std
0.42
0.71
Portability PPG Range
1.03
62.29
Portability Score
54.57
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
69
Clean History Matches
90
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-136.4
PPG-0.32
GF-0.07
GA0.30
PPG-1.00
PPG0.27
PPG-1.00
PPG-1.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-21
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Failed-to-score rate1.5%
History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches-21
Goals Mean-0.07
Goals Std-0.03
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate3.1%
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean0.37
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.17
History Matches-21
Conceded Mean0.30
Conceded Std0.01
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Conceded 2+ rate7.8%
Conceded 3+ rate8.3%
Venue Conceded Mean0.04
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.09
History Matches-21
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.11
Stability score-4.45
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.04
Eligible Matches-22
Lead Matches-13
Lead Win Rate14.2%
Lead Points Retention0.12
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate-0.04
Halftime Coverage Matches-22
First Half Goals For Mean0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean0.31
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.25
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-5
Portability PPG Std-0.11
Portability PPG Range-0.32
Portability Score7.71
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-10
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.10
Normal Rest History Matches-23
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.18
Long Rest History Matches12
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.39
Current Team ELO-136.4
Current Opponent ELO136.4
Current ELO Difference-272.8
Expected score-0.37
History Matches-21
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-5.70
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.24

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Istra 1961

W
Istra 19613–0Neretva Metković3 Nov · home
Pick: Istra 1961 56% · hit
W
NK Slaven Belupo0–2Istra 196130 Oct · away
Pick: Istra 1961 40% · hit
D
Istra 19612–2HNK Hajduk Split26 Oct · home
Pick: HNK Hajduk Split 41% · missed
L
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb2–0Istra 196117 Oct · away
Pick: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 45% · hit
D
Istra 19612–2Dinamo Zagreb29 Aug · home
Pick: Dinamo Zagreb 59% · missed

HNK Rijeka

D
HNK Rijeka1–1NK Varazdin1 Nov · home
Pick: HNK Rijeka 45% · missed
L
Dinamo Zagreb2–1HNK Rijeka27 Oct · away
Pick: Dinamo Zagreb 48% · hit
W
Karlovac 19191–4HNK Rijeka20 Oct · away
Pick: HNK Rijeka 48% · hit
W
Rudes1–2HNK Rijeka16 Oct · away
Pick: HNK Rijeka 60% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Istra 1961 and HNK Rijeka meet in HNL on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Aldo Drosina, Pula. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Istra 1961 win 36.2%, draw 28.1%, HNK Rijeka win 35.7%. The pick is Istra 1961 win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.0%. Both teams to score: 48.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.