ScoreProb
Division 1 United Arab Emirates Round 9 2026

Ittifaq vs Al Arabi

Ittifaq Home · Elo 1,413
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Al Arabi Away · Elo 1,546
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Al Arabi win
Ittifaq win
11.7%
Draw
17.4%
Al Arabi winPick
70.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.9%
No41.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.6%
Under 2.536.4%

How much we know

Ittifaq history30 matches
Al Arabi history45 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:50 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (70.9%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Al Arabi are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Al Arabi are rated 133 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,546 against 1,413. On rating alone Al Arabi would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • Al Arabi score more

    1.30 goals a game over 30 matches for Ittifaq, against 1.67 over 45 for Al Arabi.

  • Al Arabi concede fewer

    Ittifaq concede 2.07 a game, Al Arabi 1.24.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    63% of Ittifaq matches, against 62% for Al Arabi. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ittifaq
Al Arabi@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1413.1
ELO
1546.2
30
ELO · Matches
45
1413.1
Current Team ELO
1546.2
1546.2
Current Opponent ELO
1413.1
-133.1
Current ELO Difference
133.1
0.32
Expected score
0.68
30
History Matches
45
-0.14
Residual Mean
0.05
41.49
Overperformance
53.32
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.80
1.20
Goals for per game
1.80
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
2.10
2.10
Goals for per game
1.80
1.90
Goals against per game
1.10
40.0%
Win rate
70.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.45
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.54
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.51
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.70
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
2.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.55
Overall performance9 signals
90
30
Matches
45
0.80
PPG
1.69
23.3%
Win rate
51.1%
10.0%
Draw rate
15.6%
66.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
73.3%
Over 1.5 rate
71.1%
63.3%
Over 2.5 rate
62.2%
53.3%
Over 3.5 rate
31.1%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
Venue performance10 signals
100
15
Matches
23
0.87
PPG
1.65
26.7%
Win rate
47.8%
6.7%
Draw rate
21.7%
66.7%
Loss rate
30.4%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
69.6%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
56.5%
53.3%
Over 3.5 rate
30.4%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.49
15
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.30
Goals for per game
1.67
63.3%
Scoring rate
73.3%
53.3%
BTTS rate
57.8%
1.27
Goals for per game
1.52
66.7%
Scoring rate
73.9%
60.0%
BTTS rate
56.5%
0.00
Goals for per game
5.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
30
History Matches
45
1.30
Goals Mean
1.67
1.32
Goals Std
1.58
63.3%
Scored 1+ rate
73.3%
40.0%
Scored 2+ rate
46.7%
16.7%
Scored 3+ rate
24.4%
1.27
Venue Goals Mean
1.52
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.07
Goals against per game
1.24
86.7%
Conceding rate
77.8%
2.27
Goals against per game
1.17
86.7%
Conceding rate
69.6%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
30
History Matches
45
2.07
Conceded Mean
1.24
1.31
Conceded Std
0.85
60.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.2%
43.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
4.4%
2.27
Venue Conceded Mean
1.17
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
13.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
36.7%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
13.3%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
26.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
13.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
36.7%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
13.3%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
26.1%
13.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
30
History Matches
45
0.76
Result entropy
0.91
1.82
Goal Difference Std
1.76
23.53
Stability score
9.09
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
29
Eligible Matches
45
8
Lead Matches
15
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.58
Lead Points Retention
0.84
12
Trailing Matches
10
8.3%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
29
Halftime Coverage Matches
45
0.72
First Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.90
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
0.55
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.96
1.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.90
Rest days
76.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
15
Normal Rest History Matches
23
0.67
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.00
14
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.38
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
3.00
3
Competition Season Count
4
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.18
—
Portability PPG Range
0.36
—
Portability Score
73.68
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
30
Clean History Matches
45
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-133.1
PPG-0.89
GF-0.37
GA0.82
PPG-3.00
PPG-0.79
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-15
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate10.0%
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate7.2%
History Matches-15
Goals Mean-0.37
Goals Std-0.26
Scored 1+ rate-0.10
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean-0.26
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.09
History Matches-15
Conceded Mean0.82
Conceded Std0.47
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate17.8%
Conceded 3+ rate38.9%
Venue Conceded Mean1.09
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.81
History Matches-15
Result entropy-0.14
Goal Difference Std0.06
Stability score14.43
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.58
Eligible Matches-16
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate-0.30
Lead Points Retention-0.26
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.12
Trailing Win Rate-0.02
Halftime Coverage Matches-16
First Half Goals For Mean0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean0.36
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.40
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.39
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-4.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.33
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.38
Current Team ELO-133.1
Current Opponent ELO133.1
Current ELO Difference-266.1
Expected score-0.37
History Matches-15
Residual Mean-0.19
Overperformance-11.83
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ittifaq

L
Al Jazira Al Hamra1–0Ittifaq31 Oct · away
Pick: Ittifaq 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Al Arabi

L
Al Arabi0–2Al Thaid1 Nov · home
Pick: Al Arabi 51% · missed
L
Dibba Al-Fujairah2–0Al Arabi18 Oct · away
Pick: Al Arabi 44% · missed
L
Al Arabi0–2Al Urooba4 Oct · home
Pick: Al Arabi 38% · missed
W
Al Arabi4–1Al Fujairah SC29 Aug · home
Pick: Al Fujairah SC 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Ittifaq and Al Arabi meet in Division 1 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:50 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Ittifaq win 11.7%, draw 17.4%, Al Arabi win 70.9%. The pick is Al Arabi win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.6%. Both teams to score: 58.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.