ScoreProb
J2 League Japan Round 16 2026

Iwaki vs Montedio Yamagata

Iwaki Home · Elo 1,507
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Montedio Yamagata Away · Elo 1,488
Iwaki Greenfield Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Iwaki win
Iwaki winPick
37.7%
Draw
27.3%
Montedio Yamagata win
34.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.9%
No45.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.9%
Under 2.545.1%

How much we know

Iwaki history64 matches
Montedio Yamagata history67 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 20 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 05:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.7%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Iwaki are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,507 against 1,488. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.38 goals a game over 64 matches for Iwaki, against 1.42 over 67 for Montedio Yamagata.

  • Iwaki concede fewer

    Iwaki concede 1.22 a game, Montedio Yamagata 1.37.

  • Montedio Yamagata games more often go over 2.5 goals

    45% of Iwaki matches, against 60% for Montedio Yamagata. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Iwaki
Montedio Yamagata
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1507.3
ELO
1488.2
64
ELO · Matches
67
1507.3
Current Team ELO
1488.2
1488.2
Current Opponent ELO
1507.3
19.06
Current ELO Difference
-19.06
0.53
Expected score
0.47
64
History Matches
67
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.01
49.93
Overperformance
49.45
-0.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.80
1.40
Goals for per game
1.60
2.20
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.30
1.10
Goals for per game
1.50
1.70
Goals against per game
1.50
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.19
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.12
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.43
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.61
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
67
1.42
PPG
1.34
37.5%
Win rate
38.8%
29.7%
Draw rate
17.9%
32.8%
Loss rate
43.3%
71.9%
Over 1.5 rate
73.1%
45.3%
Over 2.5 rate
59.7%
31.3%
Over 3.5 rate
28.4%
1.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.38
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
33
1.50
PPG
1.27
40.0%
Win rate
36.4%
30.0%
Draw rate
18.2%
30.0%
Loss rate
45.5%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.8%
43.3%
Over 2.5 rate
60.6%
23.3%
Over 3.5 rate
30.3%
1.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.30
30
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.38
Goals for per game
1.42
73.4%
Scoring rate
74.6%
59.4%
BTTS rate
59.7%
1.40
Goals for per game
1.39
76.7%
Scoring rate
72.7%
63.3%
BTTS rate
63.6%
1.17
Goals for per game
1.09
78.3%
Scoring rate
69.6%
60.9%
BTTS rate
47.8%
64
History Matches
67
1.38
Goals Mean
1.42
1.24
Goals Std
1.11
73.4%
Scored 1+ rate
74.6%
37.5%
Scored 2+ rate
46.3%
17.2%
Scored 3+ rate
17.9%
1.40
Venue Goals Mean
1.39
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.22
Goals against per game
1.37
78.1%
Conceding rate
80.6%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.45
80.0%
Conceding rate
87.9%
1.26
Goals against per game
1.22
73.9%
Conceding rate
78.3%
64
History Matches
67
1.22
Conceded Mean
1.37
0.96
Conceded Std
1.00
31.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.3%
9.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.4%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.45
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
21.9%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
26.6%
Failed-to-score rate
25.4%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.1%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
30.4%
21.9%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
26.6%
Failed-to-score rate
25.4%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.1%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
21.9%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
67
1.00
Result entropy
0.94
1.51
Goal Difference Std
1.38
0.42
Stability score
5.53
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
67
20
Lead Matches
28
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
67.9%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.75
17
Trailing Matches
12
35.3%
Non-loss rate
8.3%
5.9%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
67
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
0.81
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.72
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.96
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.79
Rest days
76.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
35
Normal Rest History Matches
43
1.31
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.05
27
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.67
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.95
Competition & season17 signals
170
23
Matches
23
1.35
PPG
1.17
34.8%
Win rate
34.8%
30.4%
Draw rate
13.0%
34.8%
Loss rate
52.2%
65.2%
Over 1.5 rate
69.6%
43.5%
Over 2.5 rate
43.5%
30.4%
Over 3.5 rate
13.0%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
23
Current Competition Matches
23
1.35
Current Competition PPG
1.17
-0.09
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.13
5
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.06
Portability PPG Std
0.09
0.13
Portability PPG Range
0.22
88.82
Portability Score
84.31
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
67
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO19.06
PPG0.08
GF-0.04
GA-0.15
PPG0.17
PPG0.23
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate2.5%
Failed-to-score rate1.2%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate7.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.04
Goals Std0.14
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate-0.09
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.01
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.34
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean-0.15
Conceded Std-0.05
Clean-sheet rate2.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.45
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.07
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std0.14
Stability score-5.11
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.18
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate7.1%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate27.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.02
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean0.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.24
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.17
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.04
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.03
Portability PPG Range-0.09
Portability Score4.51
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.00
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.27
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.28
Current Team ELO19.06
Current Opponent ELO-19.06
Current ELO Difference38.12
Expected score0.05
History Matches-3
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.48
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.19

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Iwaki

L
Omiya Ardija2–1Iwaki3 Nov · away
Pick: Omiya Ardija 50% · hit
W
Tochigi City1–3Iwaki31 Oct · away
Pick: Tochigi City 41% · missed
D
Iwaki1–1Jubilo Iwata25 Oct · home
Pick: Iwaki 42% · missed
D
Shonan Bellmare1–1Iwaki21 Oct · away
Pick: Shonan Bellmare 45% · missed
W
Iwaki5–0Ventforet Kofu18 Oct · home
Pick: Iwaki 40% · hit

Montedio Yamagata

W
Montedio Yamagata1–0Tokushima Vortis3 Nov · home
Pick: Tokushima Vortis 40% · missed
W
Vanraure Hachinohe1–2Montedio Yamagata31 Oct · away
Pick: Vanraure Hachinohe 43% · missed
L
Montedio Yamagata0–2Tegevajaro Miyazaki25 Oct · home
Pick: Tegevajaro Miyazaki 43% · hit
L
Montedio Yamagata0–2Consadole Sapporo21 Oct · home
Pick: Montedio Yamagata 44% · missed
D
Fujieda MYFC0–0Montedio Yamagata17 Oct · away
Pick: Fujieda MYFC 44% · missed

About this match

Iwaki and Montedio Yamagata meet in J2 League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 05:00 UTC. The match is played at Iwaki Greenfield. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Iwaki win 37.7%, draw 27.3%, Montedio Yamagata win 34.9%. The pick is Iwaki win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.9%. Both teams to score: 54.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.