ScoreProb
J2 League Japan Round 16 2026

Sagan Tosu vs Kataller Toyama

Sagan Tosu Home · Elo 1,549
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kataller Toyama Away · Elo 1,530
Ekimae Real Estate Stadium, Tosu Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Kataller Toyama win
Sagan Tosu win
36.7%
Draw
25.4%
Kataller Toyama winPick
37.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.0%
No50.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.9%
Under 2.551.1%

How much we know

Sagan Tosu history67 matches
Kataller Toyama history68 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 20 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 05:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.9%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Kataller Toyama are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,549 against 1,530. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.30 goals a game over 67 matches for Sagan Tosu, against 1.34 over 68 for Kataller Toyama.

  • Sagan Tosu concede fewer

    Sagan Tosu concede 1.00 a game, Kataller Toyama 1.25.

  • Kataller Toyama games more often go over 2.5 goals

    37% of Sagan Tosu matches, against 49% for Kataller Toyama. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sagan Tosu
Kataller Toyama
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1548.5
ELO
1529.8
67
ELO · Matches
68
1548.5
Current Team ELO
1529.8
1529.8
Current Opponent ELO
1548.5
18.73
Current ELO Difference
-18.73
0.53
Expected score
0.47
67
History Matches
68
0.04
Residual Mean
0.03
53.01
Overperformance
51.97
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.00
2.20
Goals for per game
2.00
0.80
Goals against per game
0.60
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.80
2.00
Goals for per game
1.70
1.00
Goals against per game
1.10
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.95
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.27
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.18
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.51
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.37
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.33
Overall performance9 signals
90
67
Matches
68
1.58
PPG
1.35
43.3%
Win rate
36.8%
28.4%
Draw rate
25.0%
28.4%
Loss rate
38.2%
59.7%
Over 1.5 rate
70.6%
37.3%
Over 2.5 rate
48.5%
25.4%
Over 3.5 rate
30.9%
1.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
33
1.77
PPG
1.39
48.6%
Win rate
39.4%
31.4%
Draw rate
21.2%
20.0%
Loss rate
39.4%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
48.5%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
30.3%
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.81
35
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.30
Goals for per game
1.34
76.1%
Scoring rate
70.6%
46.3%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.51
Goals for per game
1.21
82.9%
Scoring rate
69.7%
51.4%
BTTS rate
45.5%
1.26
Goals for per game
2.04
82.6%
Scoring rate
87.0%
39.1%
BTTS rate
56.5%
67
History Matches
68
1.30
Goals Mean
1.34
1.20
Goals Std
1.31
76.1%
Scored 1+ rate
70.6%
35.8%
Scored 2+ rate
33.8%
7.5%
Scored 3+ rate
16.2%
1.51
Venue Goals Mean
1.21
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.00
Goals against per game
1.25
59.7%
Conceding rate
72.1%
0.97
Goals against per game
1.33
60.0%
Conceding rate
69.7%
0.87
Goals against per game
1.17
52.2%
Conceding rate
65.2%
67
History Matches
68
1.00
Conceded Mean
1.25
1.04
Conceded Std
1.03
28.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.2%
10.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.8%
0.97
Venue Conceded Mean
1.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
40.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.9%
23.9%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.3%
17.1%
Failed-to-score rate
30.3%
47.8%
Clean-sheet rate
34.8%
17.4%
Failed-to-score rate
13.0%
40.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.9%
23.9%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.3%
17.1%
Failed-to-score rate
30.3%
40.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
67
History Matches
68
0.98
Result entropy
0.98
1.46
Goal Difference Std
1.74
1.95
Stability score
1.51
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
68
25
Lead Matches
24
76.0%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.75
12
Trailing Matches
22
50.0%
Non-loss rate
22.7%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
4.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
68
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.39
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
0.58
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.61
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.79
Rest days
76.81
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
4
0.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
41
Normal Rest History Matches
42
1.32
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.45
22
Long Rest History Matches
21
2.27
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.24
Competition & season17 signals
170
23
Matches
23
1.61
PPG
1.96
43.5%
Win rate
56.5%
30.4%
Draw rate
26.1%
26.1%
Loss rate
17.4%
69.6%
Over 1.5 rate
87.0%
26.1%
Over 2.5 rate
56.5%
21.7%
Over 3.5 rate
47.8%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.09
23
Current Competition Matches
23
1.61
Current Competition PPG
1.96
0.39
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.87
6
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.04
Portability PPG Std
0.43
0.08
Portability PPG Range
1.03
92.39
Portability Score
53.66
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
67
Clean History Matches
68
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO18.73
PPG0.23
GF-0.04
GA-0.25
PPG-0.35
PPG0.38
PPG0.00
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate12.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate9.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.04
Goals Std-0.12
Scored 1+ rate5.5%
Scored 2+ rate2.0%
Scored 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.68
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.25
Conceded Std0.00
Clean-sheet rate12.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.13
Conceded 3+ rate1.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.36
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.33
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.28
Stability score0.44
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.03
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate9.3%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches-10
Non-loss rate27.3%
Trailing Win Rate3.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.35
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.48
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.39
Portability PPG Range-0.94
Portability Score38.73
Rest days-0.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.17
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.14
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match1.03
Current Team ELO18.73
Current Opponent ELO-18.73
Current ELO Difference37.46
Expected score0.05
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance1.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sagan Tosu

W
Shonan Bellmare0–1Sagan Tosu3 Nov · away
Pick: Shonan Bellmare 44% · missed
L
Jubilo Iwata2–0Sagan Tosu31 Oct · away
Pick: Jubilo Iwata 37% · hit
L
Sagan Tosu0–2Kawasaki Frontale28 Oct · home
Pick: Kawasaki Frontale 42% · hit
W
Sagan Tosu2–0Vanraure Hachinohe25 Oct · home
Pick: Sagan Tosu 51% · hit
L
Albirex Niigata2–1Sagan Tosu21 Oct · away
Pick: Albirex Niigata 40% · hit

Kataller Toyama

W
Kataller Toyama1–0Vegalta Sendai3 Nov · home
Pick: Kataller Toyama 39% · hit
W
Albirex Niigata2–3Kataller Toyama31 Oct · away
Pick: Kataller Toyama 42% · hit
L
Kataller Toyama0–1Consadole Sapporo25 Oct · home
Pick: Kataller Toyama 53% · missed
W
Omiya Ardija0–3Kataller Toyama21 Oct · away
Pick: Omiya Ardija 42% · missed
D
Kataller Toyama1–1Shonan Bellmare17 Oct · home
Pick: Kataller Toyama 51% · missed

About this match

Sagan Tosu and Kataller Toyama meet in J2 League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 05:00 UTC. The match is played at Ekimae Real Estate Stadium, Tosu. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Sagan Tosu win 36.7%, draw 25.4%, Kataller Toyama win 37.9%. The pick is Kataller Toyama win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.9%. Both teams to score: 50.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.