ScoreProb
J2 League Japan Round 16 2026

Albirex Niigata vs Imabari

Albirex Niigata Home · Elo 1,461
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Imabari Away · Elo 1,421
Denka Big Swan Stadium, Niigata Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Albirex Niigata win
Albirex Niigata winPick
50.2%
Draw
25.6%
Imabari win
24.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.2%
No51.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.7%
Under 2.554.3%

How much we know

Albirex Niigata history67 matches
Imabari history65 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 20 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 05:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.2%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Albirex Niigata are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Albirex Niigata are rated 40 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,461 against 1,421. On rating alone Albirex Niigata would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.00 goals a game over 67 matches for Albirex Niigata, against 1.09 over 65 for Imabari.

  • Defences are close

    Albirex Niigata concede 1.42 a game, Imabari 1.29.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    45% of Albirex Niigata matches, against 43% for Imabari. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Albirex Niigata
Imabari
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1461.4
ELO
1421.5
67
ELO · Matches
65
1461.4
Current Team ELO
1421.5
1421.5
Current Opponent ELO
1461.4
39.99
Current ELO Difference
-39.99
0.56
Expected score
0.44
67
History Matches
65
-0.02
Residual Mean
-0.06
48.48
Overperformance
45.49
0.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.00
1.20
Goals against per game
2.40
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
0.80
1.20
Goals for per game
1.10
0.90
Goals against per game
1.80
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.54
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.14
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.08
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
0.78
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.35
Overall performance9 signals
90
67
Matches
65
1.03
PPG
1.18
23.9%
Win rate
29.2%
31.3%
Draw rate
30.8%
44.8%
Loss rate
40.0%
65.7%
Over 1.5 rate
64.6%
44.8%
Over 2.5 rate
43.1%
23.9%
Over 3.5 rate
21.5%
1.33
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.35
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
32
1.22
PPG
1.31
27.8%
Win rate
34.4%
38.9%
Draw rate
28.1%
33.3%
Loss rate
37.5%
63.9%
Over 1.5 rate
59.4%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.6%
27.8%
Over 3.5 rate
18.8%
1.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.53
36
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.00
Goals for per game
1.09
67.2%
Scoring rate
63.1%
50.7%
BTTS rate
52.3%
1.11
Goals for per game
1.00
69.4%
Scoring rate
59.4%
55.6%
BTTS rate
46.9%
1.04
Goals for per game
0.83
65.2%
Scoring rate
60.9%
34.8%
BTTS rate
47.8%
67
History Matches
65
1.00
Goals Mean
1.09
0.86
Goals Std
1.09
67.2%
Scored 1+ rate
63.1%
28.4%
Scored 2+ rate
30.8%
4.5%
Scored 3+ rate
12.3%
1.11
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.42
Goals against per game
1.29
71.6%
Conceding rate
76.9%
1.33
Goals against per game
1.19
69.4%
Conceding rate
75.0%
0.83
Goals against per game
1.30
47.8%
Conceding rate
78.3%
67
History Matches
65
1.42
Conceded Mean
1.29
1.26
Conceded Std
1.06
41.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.9%
19.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.2%
1.33
Venue Conceded Mean
1.19
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.4%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
32.8%
Failed-to-score rate
36.9%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
30.6%
Failed-to-score rate
40.6%
52.2%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
34.8%
Failed-to-score rate
39.1%
28.4%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
32.8%
Failed-to-score rate
36.9%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
30.6%
Failed-to-score rate
40.6%
28.4%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
67
History Matches
65
0.97
Result entropy
0.99
1.33
Goal Difference Std
1.35
3.02
Stability score
0.90
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
67
Eligible Matches
65
10
Lead Matches
16
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
62.5%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.69
25
Trailing Matches
23
16.0%
Non-loss rate
30.4%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
13.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
67
Halftime Coverage Matches
65
0.42
First Half Goals For Mean
0.48
0.78
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
0.58
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.79
Rest days
76.81
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
3
2.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.33
45
Normal Rest History Matches
40
1.18
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.18
18
Long Rest History Matches
21
0.44
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.10
Competition & season17 signals
170
23
Matches
23
1.74
PPG
0.87
47.8%
Win rate
21.7%
30.4%
Draw rate
21.7%
21.7%
Loss rate
56.5%
52.2%
Over 1.5 rate
69.6%
39.1%
Over 2.5 rate
39.1%
13.0%
Over 3.5 rate
8.7%
1.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.31
23
Current Competition Matches
23
1.74
Current Competition PPG
0.87
0.22
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.48
5
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.46
Portability PPG Std
0.26
1.11
Portability PPG Range
0.53
52.22
Portability Score
65.57
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
67
Clean History Matches
65
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO39.99
PPG-0.15
GF-0.09
GA0.13
PPG0.87
PPG-0.09
PPG1.20
PPG1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate5.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate5.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches2
Goals Mean-0.09
Goals Std-0.23
Scored 1+ rate4.1%
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean0.11
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.44
History Matches2
Conceded Mean0.13
Conceded Std0.20
Clean-sheet rate5.3%
Conceded 2+ rate4.9%
Conceded 3+ rate10.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.15
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.06
History Matches2
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.02
Stability score2.12
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.56
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate17.5%
Lead Points Retention0.15
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.14
Trailing Win Rate-0.13
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean0.22
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.87
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.70
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.19
Portability PPG Range0.58
Portability Score-13.35
Rest days-0.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.00
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.65
Current Team ELO39.99
Current Opponent ELO-39.99
Current ELO Difference79.97
Expected score0.11
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance2.99
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.36

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Albirex Niigata

W
Ventforet Kofu0–1Albirex Niigata3 Nov · away
Pick: Ventforet Kofu 41% · missed
L
Albirex Niigata2–3Kataller Toyama31 Oct · home
Pick: Kataller Toyama 42% · hit
W
Albirex Niigata2–1Vegalta Sendai25 Oct · home
Pick: Vegalta Sendai 41% · missed
W
Albirex Niigata2–1Sagan Tosu21 Oct · home
Pick: Albirex Niigata 40% · hit
L
Oita Trinita5–1Albirex Niigata17 Oct · away
Pick: Oita Trinita 42% · hit

Imabari

L
Imabari0–4Consadole Sapporo3 Nov · home
Pick: Consadole Sapporo 38% · hit
D
Imabari1–1Ventforet Kofu31 Oct · home
Pick: Imabari 36% · missed
L
Blaublitz Akita1–0Imabari25 Oct · away
Pick: Blaublitz Akita 50% · hit
L
Vegalta Sendai3–1Imabari21 Oct · away
Pick: Vegalta Sendai 60% · hit
D
Imabari3–3Vanraure Hachinohe17 Oct · home
Pick: Imabari 38% · missed

About this match

Albirex Niigata and Imabari meet in J2 League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 05:00 UTC. The match is played at Denka Big Swan Stadium, Niigata. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Albirex Niigata win 50.2%, draw 25.6%, Imabari win 24.2%. The pick is Albirex Niigata win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.7%. Both teams to score: 48.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.