ScoreProb
Central Youth League Poland Round 14 2026

Jagiellonia U19 vs Zagłębie Lubin U19

Jagiellonia U19 Home · Elo 1,470
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Zagłębie Lubin U19 Away · Elo 1,504
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Jagiellonia U19 win
Jagiellonia U19 winPick
50.5%
Draw
17.6%
Zagłębie Lubin U19 win
31.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes66.5%
No33.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.573.2%
Under 2.526.8%

How much we know

Jagiellonia U19 history43 matches
Zagłębie Lubin U19 history45 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 10:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.5%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Jagiellonia U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Zagłębie Lubin U19 are rated 34 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,504 against 1,470. On rating alone Zagłębie Lubin U19 would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.86 goals a game over 43 matches for Jagiellonia U19, against 1.71 over 45 for Zagłębie Lubin U19.

  • Zagłębie Lubin U19 concede fewer

    Jagiellonia U19 concede 2.02 a game, Zagłębie Lubin U19 1.67.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    74% of Jagiellonia U19 matches, against 67% for Zagłębie Lubin U19. The model puts this match at 73% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Jagiellonia U19
Zagłębie Lubin U19
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1470.2
ELO
1503.8
43
ELO · Matches
45
1470.2
Current Team ELO
1503.8
1503.8
Current Opponent ELO
1470.2
-33.54
Current ELO Difference
33.54
0.45
Expected score
0.55
43
History Matches
45
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.01
47.79
Overperformance
50.40
-0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.60
1.00
Goals for per game
0.80
1.40
Goals against per game
2.40
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.10
1.60
Goals against per game
1.70
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.56
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.42
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.78
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.01
Overall performance9 signals
90
43
Matches
45
1.26
PPG
1.49
37.2%
Win rate
46.7%
14.0%
Draw rate
8.9%
48.8%
Loss rate
44.4%
88.4%
Over 1.5 rate
91.1%
74.4%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
55.8%
Over 3.5 rate
42.2%
2.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.22
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
22
1.55
PPG
1.23
50.0%
Win rate
36.4%
4.5%
Draw rate
13.6%
45.5%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
95.5%
81.8%
Over 2.5 rate
72.7%
59.1%
Over 3.5 rate
54.5%
2.07
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.23
22
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.86
Goals for per game
1.71
81.4%
Scoring rate
82.2%
72.1%
BTTS rate
57.8%
2.18
Goals for per game
1.73
86.4%
Scoring rate
86.4%
77.3%
BTTS rate
72.7%
1.67
Goals for per game
1.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
43
History Matches
45
1.86
Goals Mean
1.71
1.47
Goals Std
1.24
81.4%
Scored 1+ rate
82.2%
48.8%
Scored 2+ rate
53.3%
34.9%
Scored 3+ rate
24.4%
2.18
Venue Goals Mean
1.73
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.02
Goals against per game
1.67
86.0%
Conceding rate
75.6%
1.95
Goals against per game
1.95
90.9%
Conceding rate
86.4%
1.33
Goals against per game
2.33
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
43
History Matches
45
2.02
Conceded Mean
1.67
1.52
Conceded Std
1.45
60.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
48.9%
27.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.2%
1.95
Venue Conceded Mean
1.95
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
14.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.4%
18.6%
Failed-to-score rate
17.8%
9.1%
Clean-sheet rate
13.6%
13.6%
Failed-to-score rate
13.6%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
14.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.4%
18.6%
Failed-to-score rate
17.8%
9.1%
Clean-sheet rate
13.6%
13.6%
Failed-to-score rate
13.6%
14.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
43
History Matches
45
0.90
Result entropy
0.85
2.22
Goal Difference Std
2.22
9.64
Stability score
15.24
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
39
Eligible Matches
43
9
Lead Matches
17
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
76.5%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.80
16
Trailing Matches
10
18.8%
Non-loss rate
10.0%
6.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
39
Halftime Coverage Matches
43
0.64
First Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.95
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
1.08
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.91
1.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.86
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
78.00
Rest days
78.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
18
Normal Rest History Matches
21
1.44
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.52
24
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.17
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.52
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.33
PPG
1.00
33.3%
Win rate
33.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.33
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.33
3
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.17
Portability PPG Std
0.28
0.43
Portability PPG Range
0.68
74.13
Portability Score
64.31
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
43
Clean History Matches
45
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-33.54
PPG-0.23
GF0.15
GA0.36
PPG0.33
PPG0.32
PPG0.20
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate0.8%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches-2
Goals Mean0.15
Goals Std0.23
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate10.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.45
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.62
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.36
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Conceded 2+ rate11.6%
Conceded 3+ rate5.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.50
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std0.00
Stability score-5.59
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.23
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate1.3%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate8.8%
Trailing Win Rate6.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean0.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.67
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.10
Portability PPG Range-0.25
Portability Score9.81
Rest days-0.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.08
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.36
Current Team ELO-33.54
Current Opponent ELO33.54
Current ELO Difference-67.07
Expected score-0.10
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-2.61
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Jagiellonia U19

L
Polonia Warszawa U192–0Jagiellonia U1930 Oct · away
Pick: Polonia Warszawa U19 47% · hit
D
Jagiellonia U194–4Arkonia U1925 Oct · home
Pick: Jagiellonia U19 43% · missed
L
Stal Rzeszów U191–0Jagiellonia U1917 Oct · away
Pick: Stal Rzeszów U19 47% · hit
W
Jagiellonia U195–3Lech Poznań U1914 Oct · home
Pick: Lech Poznań U19 40% · missed
D
Arka Gdynia U192–2Jagiellonia U1929 Aug · away
Pick: Arka Gdynia U19 46% · missed

Zagłębie Lubin U19

W
Zagłębie Lubin U197–0Arka Gdynia U1930 Oct · home
Pick: Zagłębie Lubin U19 48% · hit
W
Raków Częstochowa U191–5Zagłębie Lubin U1924 Oct · away
Pick: Raków Częstochowa U19 51% · missed
L
Zagłębie Lubin U190–1Śląsk Wrocław U1918 Oct · home
Pick: Zagłębie Lubin U19 41% · missed
D
Escola Varsovia U190–0Zagłębie Lubin U1914 Oct · away
Pick: Zagłębie Lubin U19 43% · missed
W
Zagłębie Lubin U191–0Górnik Zabrze U1930 Aug · home
Pick: Górnik Zabrze U19 48% · missed

About this match

Jagiellonia U19 and Zagłębie Lubin U19 meet in Central Youth League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Jagiellonia U19 win 50.5%, draw 17.6%, Zagłębie Lubin U19 win 31.9%. The pick is Jagiellonia U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 73.2%. Both teams to score: 66.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.