ScoreProb
Central Youth League Poland Round 14 2026

Korona Kielce U19 vs Arkonia U19

Korona Kielce U19 Home · Elo 1,493
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Arkonia U19 Away · Elo 1,510
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Arkonia U19 win
Korona Kielce U19 win
33.2%
Draw
26.2%
Arkonia U19 winPick
40.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.9%
No44.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.1%
Under 2.541.9%

How much we know

Korona Kielce U19 history3 matches
Arkonia U19 history31 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Arkonia U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,493 against 1,510. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.33 goals a game over 3 matches for Korona Kielce U19, against 1.35 over 31 for Arkonia U19.

  • Defences are close

    Korona Kielce U19 concede 1.67 a game, Arkonia U19 1.61.

  • Korona Kielce U19 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    67% of Korona Kielce U19 matches, against 55% for Arkonia U19. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Korona Kielce U19
Arkonia U19
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1493.4
ELO
1510.0
3
ELO · Matches
31
1493.4
Current Team ELO
1510.0
1510.0
Current Opponent ELO
1493.4
-16.55
Current ELO Difference
16.55
0.48
Expected score
0.52
3
History Matches
31
-0.08
Residual Mean
0.01
48.92
Overperformance
50.88
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.21
Recent form16 signals
160
3
Matches
5
0.67
PPG
2.20
1.33
Goals for per game
1.40
1.67
Goals against per game
0.60
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
3
Matches
10
0.67
PPG
1.80
1.33
Goals for per game
1.20
1.67
Goals against per game
0.80
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.33
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.47
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
1.67
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
0.47
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
0.47
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.20
Overall performance9 signals
90
3
Matches
31
0.67
PPG
1.23
0.0%
Win rate
32.3%
66.7%
Draw rate
25.8%
33.3%
Loss rate
41.9%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
77.4%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
54.8%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
41.9%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
Venue performance10 signals
100
2
Matches
16
0.50
PPG
1.38
0.0%
Win rate
37.5%
50.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
37.5%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
68.8%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
31.3%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
2
History Matches
16
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.33
Goals for per game
1.35
100.0%
Scoring rate
71.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
58.1%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.31
100.0%
Scoring rate
56.3%
100.0%
BTTS rate
43.8%
1.33
Goals for per game
1.33
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
3
History Matches
31
1.33
Goals Mean
1.35
0.47
Goals Std
1.31
100.0%
Scored 1+ rate
71.0%
33.3%
Scored 2+ rate
38.7%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
16.1%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.31
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.67
Goals against per game
1.61
100.0%
Conceding rate
77.4%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.56
100.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.67
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
3
History Matches
31
1.67
Conceded Mean
1.61
0.47
Conceded Std
1.24
66.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
48.4%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
29.0%
1.50
Venue Conceded Mean
1.56
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
43.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
43.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
3
History Matches
31
0.58
Result entropy
0.98
0.47
Goal Difference Std
1.63
42.06
Stability score
1.79
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
1
Eligible Matches
29
0
Lead Matches
7
—
Lead Win Rate
57.1%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.62
0
Trailing Matches
7
—
Non-loss rate
28.6%
—
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
1
Halftime Coverage Matches
29
1.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.55
1.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.83
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.07
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.98
Rest days
78.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
1
Normal Rest History Matches
15
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.93
1
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.60
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.67
PPG
1.67
0.0%
Win rate
33.3%
66.7%
Draw rate
66.7%
33.3%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.47
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.67
Current Competition PPG
1.67
-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.33
1
Competition Season Count
2
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.24
—
Portability PPG Range
0.49
—
Portability Score
67.20
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
3
Clean History Matches
31
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RatePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-16.55
PPG-0.56
GF-0.02
GA0.05
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.88
PPG-1.53
PPG-1.13
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-28
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Failed-to-score rate-0.29
History Matches-14
Clean-sheet rate-0.25
Failed-to-score rate-0.44
History Matches-28
Goals Mean-0.02
Goals Std-0.84
Scored 1+ rate29.0%
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Goals Mean-0.31
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.13
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.40
History Matches-28
Conceded Mean0.05
Conceded Std-0.76
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Conceded 2+ rate18.3%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.29
Venue Conceded Mean-0.06
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.40
History Matches-28
Result entropy-0.40
Goal Difference Std-1.15
Stability score40.27
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.73
Eligible Matches-28
Lead Matches-7
Trailing Matches-7
Halftime Coverage Matches-28
First Half Goals For Mean0.45
First Half Goals Against Mean0.52
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.83
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.67
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days-0.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-14
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.07
Long Rest History Matches-14
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.60
Current Team ELO-16.55
Current Opponent ELO16.55
Current ELO Difference-33.10
Expected score-0.05
History Matches-28
Residual Mean-0.10
Overperformance-1.96
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.30

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Korona Kielce U19

D
Stal Rzeszów U190–0Korona Kielce U1930 Oct · away
Pick: Stal Rzeszów U19 60% · missed
L
Korona Kielce U191–2Górnik Zabrze U1925 Oct · home
Pick: Górnik Zabrze U19 46% · hit
D
Talent Warszawa U190–0Korona Kielce U1918 Oct · away
Pick: Talent Warszawa U19 54% · missed
L
Śląsk Wrocław U191–0Korona Kielce U1929 Aug · away
Pick: Śląsk Wrocław U19 56% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Arkonia U19

W
Arkonia U192–1Miedź Legnica U1931 Oct · home
Pick: Arkonia U19 50% · hit
D
Jagiellonia U194–4Arkonia U1925 Oct · away
Pick: Jagiellonia U19 43% · missed
W
Arkonia U191–0Arka Gdynia U1917 Oct · home
Pick: Arkonia U19 46% · hit
L
Escola Varsovia U191–0Arkonia U1929 Aug · away
Pick: Escola Varsovia U19 41% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Korona Kielce U19 and Arkonia U19 meet in Central Youth League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Korona Kielce U19 win 33.2%, draw 26.2%, Arkonia U19 win 40.6%. The pick is Arkonia U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.1%. Both teams to score: 55.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.