ScoreProb
Ettan - Norra Sweden Norra - 30 2026

Järfälla vs Vasalund

Järfälla Home · Elo 1,499
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Vasalund Away · Elo 1,536
Jarfallavallen Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Järfälla win
Järfälla winPick
42.4%
Draw
17.5%
Vasalund win
40.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes65.3%
No34.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.570.8%
Under 2.529.2%

How much we know

Järfälla history50 matches
Vasalund history59 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Järfälla are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Vasalund are rated 38 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,536 against 1,499. On rating alone Vasalund would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.88 goals a game over 50 matches for Järfälla, against 2.03 over 59 for Vasalund.

  • Defences are close

    Järfälla concede 1.48 a game, Vasalund 1.54.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    66% of Järfälla matches, against 71% for Vasalund. The model puts this match at 71% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Järfälla
Vasalund
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1498.6
ELO
1536.3
50
ELO · Matches
59
1498.6
Current Team ELO
1536.3
1536.3
Current Opponent ELO
1498.6
-37.64
Current ELO Difference
37.64
0.45
Expected score
0.55
50
History Matches
59
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.04
49.49
Overperformance
52.72
-0.35
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.80
2.60
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.40
PPG
1.50
1.00
Goals for per game
1.50
2.80
Goals against per game
1.80
10.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.89
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.12
2.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.47
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.47
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.89
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.95
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
59
1.60
PPG
1.66
48.0%
Win rate
47.5%
16.0%
Draw rate
23.7%
36.0%
Loss rate
28.8%
88.0%
Over 1.5 rate
91.5%
66.0%
Over 2.5 rate
71.2%
46.0%
Over 3.5 rate
54.2%
2.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.32
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
27
1.83
PPG
1.26
58.3%
Win rate
33.3%
8.3%
Draw rate
25.9%
33.3%
Loss rate
40.7%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
70.8%
Over 2.5 rate
77.8%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
59.3%
2.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.69
24
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.88
Goals for per game
2.03
84.0%
Scoring rate
89.8%
62.0%
BTTS rate
69.5%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.89
83.3%
Scoring rate
85.2%
58.3%
BTTS rate
66.7%
1.28
Goals for per game
1.56
72.2%
Scoring rate
88.9%
61.1%
BTTS rate
72.2%
50
History Matches
59
1.88
Goals Mean
2.03
1.51
Goals Std
1.51
84.0%
Scored 1+ rate
89.8%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
54.2%
32.0%
Scored 3+ rate
32.2%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.89
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.48
Goals against per game
1.54
78.0%
Conceding rate
74.6%
1.54
Goals against per game
1.89
75.0%
Conceding rate
74.1%
2.17
Goals against per game
1.94
88.9%
Conceding rate
83.3%
50
History Matches
59
1.48
Conceded Mean
1.54
1.33
Conceded Std
1.34
36.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.1%
20.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.0%
1.54
Venue Conceded Mean
1.89
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.4%
16.0%
Failed-to-score rate
10.2%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
14.8%
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
22.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.4%
16.0%
Failed-to-score rate
10.2%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
14.8%
22.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
59
0.92
Result entropy
0.96
2.36
Goal Difference Std
2.32
7.76
Stability score
4.10
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
57
17
Lead Matches
18
94.1%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
0.96
Lead Points Retention
0.83
12
Trailing Matches
15
41.7%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
33.3%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.88
First Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.73
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.18
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.88
Rest days
77.13
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
29
Normal Rest History Matches
38
1.21
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.63
19
Long Rest History Matches
20
2.16
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.65
Competition & season17 signals
170
18
Matches
18
0.83
PPG
1.28
22.2%
Win rate
33.3%
16.7%
Draw rate
27.8%
61.1%
Loss rate
38.9%
88.9%
Over 1.5 rate
94.4%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
72.2%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
55.6%
2.18
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.11
18
Current Competition Matches
18
0.83
Current Competition PPG
1.28
-0.89
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.39
5
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.86
Portability PPG Std
0.24
2.01
Portability PPG Range
0.59
36.88
Portability Score
67.16
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
59
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-37.64
PPG-0.06
GF-0.15
GA-0.06
PPG-0.44
PPG0.57
PPG-1.00
PPG-1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate5.8%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate1.9%
History Matches-9
Goals Mean-0.15
Goals Std0.00
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate0.00
Venue Goals Mean0.11
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.22
History Matches-9
Conceded Mean-0.06
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.35
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.00
History Matches-9
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std0.04
Stability score3.67
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.41
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.07
Eligible Matches-8
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate16.3%
Lead Points Retention0.13
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate1.7%
Trailing Win Rate13.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-8
First Half Goals For Mean0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.44
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.61
Portability PPG Range1.42
Portability Score-30.28
Rest days1.75
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches-9
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.42
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.51
Current Team ELO-37.64
Current Opponent ELO37.64
Current ELO Difference-75.28
Expected score-0.11
History Matches-9
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-3.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.36

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Järfälla

D
Enköping1–1Järfälla1 Nov · away
Pick: Enköping 56% · missed
D
Järfälla2–2Hammarby Talang23 Oct · home
Pick: Hammarby Talang 64% · missed
W
Arlanda1–3Järfälla17 Oct · away
Pick: Arlanda 62% · missed
L
Järfälla0–2Assyriska FF29 Aug · home
Pick: Assyriska FF 45% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Vasalund

W
Vasalund2–1IF Karlstad1 Nov · home
Pick: IF Karlstad 47% · missed
L
Sollentuna2–0Vasalund24 Oct · away
Pick: Sollentuna 41% · hit
L
Vasalund0–4AFC Eskilstuna18 Oct · home
Pick: Vasalund 41% · missed
L
Vasalund1–4Arlanda4 Oct · home
Pick: Vasalund 39% · missed
L
Umeå FC3–2Vasalund30 Aug · away
Pick: Umeå FC 43% · hit

About this match

Järfälla and Vasalund meet in Ettan - Norra on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Jarfallavallen. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Järfälla win 42.4%, draw 17.5%, Vasalund win 40.1%. The pick is Järfälla win. Over 2.5 goals: 70.8%. Both teams to score: 65.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.