ScoreProb
Ettan - Norra Sweden Norra - 30 2026

Sollentuna vs Arlanda

Sollentuna Home · Elo 1,481
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Arlanda Away · Elo 1,561
Sollentunavallen Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Arlanda win
Sollentuna win
34.3%
Draw
23.4%
Arlanda winPick
42.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.7%
No38.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.4%
Under 2.540.6%

How much we know

Sollentuna history61 matches
Arlanda history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Arlanda are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Arlanda are rated 80 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,561 against 1,481. On rating alone Arlanda would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Arlanda score more

    1.41 goals a game over 61 matches for Sollentuna, against 1.71 over 58 for Arlanda.

  • Arlanda concede fewer

    Sollentuna concede 1.74 a game, Arlanda 1.50.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    61% of Sollentuna matches, against 59% for Arlanda. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sollentuna
Arlanda
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1480.8
ELO
1560.7
61
ELO · Matches
58
1480.8
Current Team ELO
1560.7
1560.7
Current Opponent ELO
1480.8
-79.95
Current ELO Difference
79.95
0.39
Expected score
0.61
61
History Matches
58
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.05
48.29
Overperformance
53.41
-0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.23
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.40
1.20
Goals for per game
2.60
2.00
Goals against per game
2.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
2.20
1.20
Goals for per game
2.20
2.20
Goals against per game
1.30
20.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.83
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.73
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.62
Overall performance9 signals
90
61
Matches
58
1.23
PPG
1.50
29.5%
Win rate
41.4%
34.4%
Draw rate
25.9%
36.1%
Loss rate
32.8%
83.6%
Over 1.5 rate
74.1%
60.7%
Over 2.5 rate
58.6%
39.3%
Over 3.5 rate
39.7%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
31
1.39
PPG
1.19
35.7%
Win rate
32.3%
32.1%
Draw rate
22.6%
32.1%
Loss rate
45.2%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
74.2%
64.3%
Over 2.5 rate
64.5%
46.4%
Over 3.5 rate
41.9%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.90
28
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.41
Goals for per game
1.71
73.8%
Scoring rate
77.6%
67.2%
BTTS rate
63.8%
1.54
Goals for per game
1.42
75.0%
Scoring rate
74.2%
71.4%
BTTS rate
64.5%
0.94
Goals for per game
1.67
61.1%
Scoring rate
77.8%
55.6%
BTTS rate
55.6%
61
History Matches
58
1.41
Goals Mean
1.71
1.18
Goals Std
1.58
73.8%
Scored 1+ rate
77.6%
42.6%
Scored 2+ rate
48.3%
19.7%
Scored 3+ rate
19.0%
1.54
Venue Goals Mean
1.42
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.74
Goals against per game
1.50
85.2%
Conceding rate
74.1%
1.71
Goals against per game
1.65
89.3%
Conceding rate
77.4%
1.39
Goals against per game
1.11
83.3%
Conceding rate
55.6%
61
History Matches
58
1.74
Conceded Mean
1.50
1.27
Conceded Std
1.33
50.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.4%
23.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.4%
1.71
Venue Conceded Mean
1.65
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
14.8%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
26.2%
Failed-to-score rate
22.4%
10.7%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.8%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
44.4%
38.9%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
14.8%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
26.2%
Failed-to-score rate
22.4%
10.7%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.8%
14.8%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
61
History Matches
58
1.00
Result entropy
0.98
1.65
Goal Difference Std
1.82
0.32
Stability score
1.65
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
56
Eligible Matches
55
9
Lead Matches
15
33.3%
Lead Win Rate
93.3%
0.56
Lead Points Retention
0.96
23
Trailing Matches
15
30.4%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
13.0%
Trailing Win Rate
13.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
56
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.95
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
0.77
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.86
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.87
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
78.00
Rest days
77.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
44
Normal Rest History Matches
35
1.48
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.51
16
Long Rest History Matches
22
0.63
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.55
Competition & season17 signals
170
18
Matches
18
1.11
PPG
1.83
22.2%
Win rate
50.0%
44.4%
Draw rate
33.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
16.7%
72.2%
Over 1.5 rate
61.1%
38.9%
Over 2.5 rate
44.4%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.26
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.14
18
Current Competition Matches
18
1.11
Current Competition PPG
1.83
-0.44
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.56
5
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.10
Portability PPG Std
0.29
0.23
Portability PPG Range
0.71
83.63
Portability Score
63.17
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
61
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-79.95
PPG-0.27
GF-0.30
GA0.24
PPG-0.72
PPG0.20
PPG0.00
PPG-1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate3.8%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches3
Goals Mean-0.30
Goals Std-0.40
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate0.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.12
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.96
History Matches3
Conceded Mean0.24
Conceded Std-0.06
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate9.4%
Conceded 3+ rate0.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.07
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.57
History Matches3
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.17
Stability score-1.33
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.08
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate-0.60
Lead Points Retention-0.40
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate0.00
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean0.40
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.72
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.19
Portability PPG Range-0.47
Portability Score20.47
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches9
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.04
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.92
Current Team ELO-79.95
Current Opponent ELO79.95
Current ELO Difference-159.9
Expected score-0.23
History Matches3
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-5.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.38

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sollentuna

L
Umeå FC3–0Sollentuna1 Nov · away
Pick: Umeå FC 44% · hit
W
Sollentuna2–0Vasalund24 Oct · home
Pick: Sollentuna 41% · hit
D
Piteå1–1Sollentuna18 Oct · away
Pick: Piteå 46% · missed
L
AFC Eskilstuna2–1Sollentuna29 Aug · away
Pick: AFC Eskilstuna 57% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Arlanda

W
Arlanda3–1AFC Eskilstuna31 Oct · home
Pick: Arlanda 50% · hit
W
Assyriska FF1–3Arlanda25 Oct · away
Pick: Assyriska FF 40% · missed
L
Arlanda1–3Järfälla17 Oct · home
Pick: Arlanda 62% · missed
W
Vasalund1–4Arlanda4 Oct · away
Pick: Vasalund 39% · missed
W
Stocksund2–3Arlanda29 Aug · away
Pick: Arlanda 42% · hit

About this match

Sollentuna and Arlanda meet in Ettan - Norra on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Sollentunavallen. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Sollentuna win 34.3%, draw 23.4%, Arlanda win 42.3%. The pick is Arlanda win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.4%. Both teams to score: 61.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.