ScoreProb
J1 League Japan Round 14 2027

JEF United Chiba vs Mito Hollyhock

JEF United Chiba Home · Elo 1,462
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Mito Hollyhock Away · Elo 1,489
Fukuda Denshi Arena, Chiba Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Mito Hollyhock win
JEF United Chiba win
27.0%
Draw
24.6%
Mito Hollyhock winPick
48.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.7%
No46.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.9%
Under 2.548.1%

How much we know

JEF United Chiba history69 matches
Mito Hollyhock history67 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 23 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 08:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Mito Hollyhock are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Mito Hollyhock are rated 27 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,489 against 1,462. On rating alone Mito Hollyhock would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.30 goals a game over 69 matches for JEF United Chiba, against 1.24 over 67 for Mito Hollyhock.

  • Defences are close

    JEF United Chiba concede 1.35 a game, Mito Hollyhock 1.31.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    48% of JEF United Chiba matches, against 48% for Mito Hollyhock. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
JEF United Chiba
Mito Hollyhock
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1461.8
ELO
1488.9
69
ELO · Matches
67
1461.8
Current Team ELO
1488.9
1488.9
Current Opponent ELO
1461.8
-27.04
Current ELO Difference
27.04
0.46
Expected score
0.54
69
History Matches
67
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.00
48.14
Overperformance
49.65
-0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.24
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
0.80
0.20
Goals for per game
1.00
2.20
Goals against per game
1.20
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.50
PPG
0.50
0.80
Goals for per game
0.80
2.10
Goals against per game
1.80
10.0%
Win rate
10.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.08
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.08
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.85
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.41
Overall performance9 signals
90
69
Matches
67
1.35
PPG
1.37
37.7%
Win rate
35.8%
21.7%
Draw rate
29.9%
40.6%
Loss rate
34.3%
69.6%
Over 1.5 rate
73.1%
47.8%
Over 2.5 rate
47.8%
26.1%
Over 3.5 rate
26.9%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
32
1.50
PPG
1.28
41.7%
Win rate
34.4%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
40.6%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
78.1%
52.8%
Over 2.5 rate
56.3%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
28.1%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.48
36
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.30
Goals for per game
1.24
66.7%
Scoring rate
76.1%
47.8%
BTTS rate
53.7%
1.53
Goals for per game
1.25
66.7%
Scoring rate
78.1%
52.8%
BTTS rate
59.4%
0.00
Goals for per game
1.67
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
69
History Matches
67
1.30
Goals Mean
1.24
1.33
Goals Std
0.95
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
76.1%
34.8%
Scored 2+ rate
37.3%
17.4%
Scored 3+ rate
9.0%
1.53
Venue Goals Mean
1.25
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.35
Goals against per game
1.31
72.5%
Conceding rate
70.1%
1.39
Goals against per game
1.50
75.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
3.00
Goals against per game
1.33
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
69
History Matches
67
1.35
Conceded Mean
1.31
1.09
Conceded Std
1.25
46.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.8%
11.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.4%
1.39
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
27.5%
Clean-sheet rate
29.9%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
23.9%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
21.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
27.5%
Clean-sheet rate
29.9%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
23.9%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
21.9%
27.5%
Clean-sheet rate
29.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
69
History Matches
67
0.97
Result entropy
1.00
1.64
Goal Difference Std
1.60
3.01
Stability score
0.27
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
69
Eligible Matches
66
16
Lead Matches
23
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
65.2%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.75
24
Trailing Matches
14
16.7%
Non-loss rate
21.4%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
69
Halftime Coverage Matches
66
0.55
First Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
0.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.90
Rest days
77.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
5
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.80
46
Normal Rest History Matches
40
1.30
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.53
21
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.43
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.29
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.00
PPG
1.33
0.0%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
100.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.33
-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.33
7
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.78
Portability PPG Std
0.47
1.88
Portability PPG Range
1.14
39.14
Portability Score
51.70
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
69
Clean History Matches
67
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-27.04
PPG-0.03
GF0.07
GA0.03
PPG-1.33
PPG0.22
PPG-0.60
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate9.5%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate11.5%
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.07
Goals Std0.39
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate8.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.28
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.21
History Matches2
Conceded Mean0.03
Conceded Std-0.16
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate10.6%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.11
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.22
History Matches2
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.04
Stability score2.75
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.43
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate9.8%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches10
Non-loss rate-0.05
Trailing Win Rate1.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-3.33
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.31
Portability PPG Range0.73
Portability Score-12.55
Rest days0.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Short Rest Points Per Match2.20
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.22
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.14
Current Team ELO-27.04
Current Opponent ELO27.04
Current ELO Difference-54.07
Expected score-0.08
History Matches2
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.51
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

JEF United Chiba

W
JEF United Chiba3–0Avispa Fukuoka1 Nov · home
Pick: Avispa Fukuoka 48% · missed
D
Cerezo Osaka2–2JEF United Chiba25 Oct · away
Pick: Cerezo Osaka 59% · missed
L
Urawa3–2JEF United Chiba21 Oct · away
Pick: Urawa 53% · hit
D
JEF United Chiba0–0Yokohama F. Marinos17 Oct · home
Pick: Yokohama F. Marinos 44% · missed
L
Fagiano Okayama1–0JEF United Chiba7 Oct · away
Pick: JEF United Chiba 37% · missed

Mito Hollyhock

L
Mito Hollyhock0–3Sanfrecce Hiroshima31 Oct · home
Pick: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 56% · hit
L
Mito Hollyhock1–3Cerezo Osaka28 Oct · home
Pick: Mito Hollyhock 39% · missed
L
FC Tokyo6–0Mito Hollyhock25 Oct · away
Pick: FC Tokyo 40% · hit
L
Fagiano Okayama2–0Mito Hollyhock21 Oct · away
Pick: Fagiano Okayama 35% · hit
L
Mito Hollyhock0–1Urawa17 Oct · home
Pick: Mito Hollyhock 51% · missed

About this match

JEF United Chiba and Mito Hollyhock meet in J1 League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 08:00 UTC. The match is played at Fukuda Denshi Arena, Chiba. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: JEF United Chiba win 27.0%, draw 24.6%, Mito Hollyhock win 48.4%. The pick is Mito Hollyhock win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.9%. Both teams to score: 53.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.