ScoreProb
J1 League Japan Round 14 2027

Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka

Gamba Osaka Home · Elo 1,595
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Cerezo Osaka Away · Elo 1,584
Panasonic Stadium Suita Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Gamba Osaka win
Gamba Osaka winPick
48.6%
Draw
23.3%
Cerezo Osaka win
28.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.2%
No41.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.1%
Under 2.541.9%

How much we know

Gamba Osaka history88 matches
Cerezo Osaka history72 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 21 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 06:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Gamba Osaka are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,595 against 1,584. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.61 goals a game over 88 matches for Gamba Osaka, against 1.68 over 72 for Cerezo Osaka.

  • Defences are close

    Gamba Osaka concede 1.34 a game, Cerezo Osaka 1.33.

  • Cerezo Osaka games more often go over 2.5 goals

    52% of Gamba Osaka matches, against 61% for Cerezo Osaka. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Gamba Osaka
Cerezo Osaka
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1595.4
ELO
1584.5
88
ELO · Matches
72
1595.4
Current Team ELO
1584.5
1584.5
Current Opponent ELO
1595.4
10.91
Current ELO Difference
-10.91
0.52
Expected score
0.48
88
History Matches
72
0.05
Residual Mean
0.06
54.36
Overperformance
54.80
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.34
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
2.40
1.80
Goals for per game
1.00
1.40
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
2.50
1.70
Goals for per game
2.20
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
50.0%
Win rate
80.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
1.42
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.60
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.98
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
1.68
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.84
Overall performance9 signals
90
88
Matches
72
1.58
PPG
1.54
43.2%
Win rate
43.1%
28.4%
Draw rate
25.0%
28.4%
Loss rate
31.9%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
81.9%
52.3%
Over 2.5 rate
61.1%
34.1%
Over 3.5 rate
31.9%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
Venue performance10 signals
100
44
Matches
35
1.77
PPG
1.31
52.3%
Win rate
37.1%
20.5%
Draw rate
20.0%
27.3%
Loss rate
42.9%
79.5%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
61.4%
Over 2.5 rate
74.3%
43.2%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
44
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.61
Goals for per game
1.68
75.0%
Scoring rate
81.9%
54.5%
BTTS rate
65.3%
1.93
Goals for per game
1.69
79.5%
Scoring rate
71.4%
61.4%
BTTS rate
65.7%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
100.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
88
History Matches
72
1.61
Goals Mean
1.68
1.39
Goals Std
1.42
75.0%
Scored 1+ rate
81.9%
47.7%
Scored 2+ rate
41.7%
22.7%
Scored 3+ rate
25.0%
1.93
Venue Goals Mean
1.69
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.34
Goals against per game
1.33
72.7%
Conceding rate
77.8%
1.45
Goals against per game
1.71
79.5%
Conceding rate
88.6%
2.33
Goals against per game
1.33
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
88
History Matches
72
1.34
Conceded Mean
1.33
1.24
Conceded Std
0.96
35.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.1%
17.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.5%
1.45
Venue Conceded Mean
1.71
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
18.1%
20.5%
Clean-sheet rate
11.4%
20.5%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
18.1%
20.5%
Clean-sheet rate
11.4%
20.5%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
88
History Matches
72
0.98
Result entropy
0.98
1.72
Goal Difference Std
1.76
1.91
Stability score
2.25
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
83
Eligible Matches
70
22
Lead Matches
23
77.3%
Lead Win Rate
65.2%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.74
22
Trailing Matches
13
27.3%
Non-loss rate
23.1%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
15.4%
Goal timing5 signals
50
83
Halftime Coverage Matches
70
0.66
First Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.90
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.83
Rest days
77.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
12
Short Rest History Matches
6
1.58
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
55
Normal Rest History Matches
45
1.62
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.40
20
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.55
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.85
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.33
PPG
2.00
33.3%
Win rate
66.7%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.33
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.33
9
Competition Season Count
6
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.58
Portability PPG Std
0.26
1.97
Portability PPG Range
0.63
46.37
Portability Score
65.77
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
88
Clean History Matches
72
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO10.91
PPG0.04
GF-0.07
GA0.01
PPG-0.67
PPG0.46
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches16
Clean-sheet rate5.1%
Failed-to-score rate6.9%
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate9.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches16
Goals Mean-0.07
Goals Std-0.04
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate6.1%
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.25
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.18
History Matches16
Conceded Mean0.01
Conceded Std0.28
Clean-sheet rate5.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate4.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.26
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.22
History Matches16
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.03
Stability score-0.34
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.17
Eligible Matches13
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate12.1%
Lead Points Retention0.11
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate4.2%
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches13
First Half Goals For Mean-0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.32
Portability PPG Range1.34
Portability Score-19.40
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches6
Short Rest Points Per Match0.25
Normal Rest History Matches10
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.22
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.30
Current Team ELO10.91
Current Opponent ELO-10.91
Current ELO Difference21.81
Expected score0.03
History Matches16
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.44
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.26

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Gamba Osaka

D
Machida Zelvia0–0Gamba Osaka1 Nov · away
Pick: Machida Zelvia 55% · missed
D
Gamba Osaka1–1Buriram United28 Oct · home
Pick: Buriram United 48% · missed
D
Gamba Osaka2–2Kyoto Sanga24 Oct · home
Pick: Gamba Osaka 56% · missed
W
Avispa Fukuoka1–2Gamba Osaka21 Oct · away
Pick: Avispa Fukuoka 45% · missed
D
Shimizu S-pulse2–2Gamba Osaka17 Oct · away
Pick: Gamba Osaka 37% · missed

Cerezo Osaka

L
Kashima4–1Cerezo Osaka31 Oct · away
Pick: Kashima 59% · hit
W
Mito Hollyhock1–3Cerezo Osaka28 Oct · away
Pick: Mito Hollyhock 39% · missed
D
Cerezo Osaka2–2JEF United Chiba25 Oct · home
Pick: Cerezo Osaka 59% · missed
D
Nagoya Grampus1–1Cerezo Osaka21 Oct · away
Pick: Nagoya Grampus 43% · missed
L
Cerezo Osaka2–4Kawasaki Frontale17 Oct · home
Pick: Cerezo Osaka 39% · missed

About this match

Gamba Osaka and Cerezo Osaka meet in J1 League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 06:00 UTC. The match is played at Panasonic Stadium Suita. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Gamba Osaka win 48.6%, draw 23.3%, Cerezo Osaka win 28.1%. The pick is Gamba Osaka win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.1%. Both teams to score: 58.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.