ScoreProb
J1 League Japan Round 14 2027

Vissel Kobe vs Urawa

Vissel Kobe Home · Elo 1,607
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Urawa Away · Elo 1,500
Noevir Stadium, Kobe Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Vissel Kobe win
Vissel Kobe winPick
65.4%
Draw
19.7%
Urawa win
15.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.8%
No47.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.3%
Under 2.544.7%

How much we know

Vissel Kobe history89 matches
Urawa history72 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 20 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 05:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (65.4%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Vissel Kobe are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Vissel Kobe are rated 107 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,607 against 1,500. On rating alone Vissel Kobe would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.40 goals a game over 89 matches for Vissel Kobe, against 1.33 over 72 for Urawa.

  • Vissel Kobe concede fewer

    Vissel Kobe concede 1.06 a game, Urawa 1.33.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    43% of Vissel Kobe matches, against 47% for Urawa. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Vissel Kobe
Urawa
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1606.9
ELO
1499.6
89
ELO · Matches
72
1606.9
Current Team ELO
1499.6
1499.6
Current Opponent ELO
1606.9
107.3
Current ELO Difference
-107.3
0.65
Expected score
0.35
89
History Matches
72
0.06
Residual Mean
0.00
55.23
Overperformance
49.62
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.21
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.20
1.20
Goals for per game
2.20
1.00
Goals against per game
3.60
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
0.60
1.50
Goals for per game
1.60
0.90
Goals against per game
2.30
50.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.36
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.50
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.55
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.74
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.55
Overall performance9 signals
90
89
Matches
72
1.67
PPG
1.35
47.2%
Win rate
36.1%
25.8%
Draw rate
26.4%
27.0%
Loss rate
37.5%
68.5%
Over 1.5 rate
72.2%
42.7%
Over 2.5 rate
47.2%
25.8%
Over 3.5 rate
29.2%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.55
Venue performance10 signals
100
47
Matches
38
1.98
PPG
1.00
57.4%
Win rate
23.7%
25.5%
Draw rate
28.9%
17.0%
Loss rate
47.4%
68.1%
Over 1.5 rate
73.7%
44.7%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
25.5%
Over 3.5 rate
31.6%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
47
History Matches
38
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.40
Goals for per game
1.33
74.2%
Scoring rate
73.6%
44.9%
BTTS rate
54.2%
1.55
Goals for per game
1.29
78.7%
Scoring rate
73.7%
42.6%
BTTS rate
60.5%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.67
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
100.0%
89
History Matches
72
1.40
Goals Mean
1.33
1.18
Goals Std
1.12
74.2%
Scored 1+ rate
73.6%
43.8%
Scored 2+ rate
41.7%
14.6%
Scored 3+ rate
11.1%
1.55
Venue Goals Mean
1.29
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.06
Goals against per game
1.33
64.0%
Conceding rate
70.8%
0.81
Goals against per game
1.58
53.2%
Conceding rate
78.9%
1.00
Goals against per game
3.67
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
89
History Matches
72
1.06
Conceded Mean
1.33
1.08
Conceded Std
1.26
27.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.7%
10.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.1%
0.81
Venue Conceded Mean
1.58
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
36.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
25.8%
Failed-to-score rate
26.4%
46.8%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
21.3%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
36.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
25.8%
Failed-to-score rate
26.4%
46.8%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
21.3%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
36.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
89
History Matches
72
0.96
Result entropy
0.99
1.65
Goal Difference Std
1.55
3.74
Stability score
1.04
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
88
Eligible Matches
69
26
Lead Matches
21
88.5%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.70
20
Trailing Matches
18
30.0%
Non-loss rate
27.8%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
88
Halftime Coverage Matches
69
0.57
First Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
0.84
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.57
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.77
Rest days
76.77
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.63
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.40
67
Normal Rest History Matches
43
1.72
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.37
13
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.62
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.22
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.33
PPG
0.00
33.3%
Win rate
0.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
0.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.82
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.33
Current Competition PPG
0.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.00
10
Competition Season Count
8
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.20
Portability PPG Std
0.69
0.58
Portability PPG Range
1.55
71.62
Portability Score
42.05
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
89
Clean History Matches
72
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO107.3
PPG0.33
GF0.07
GA-0.28
PPG1.33
PPG0.98
PPG1.40
PPG1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches17
Clean-sheet rate6.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate25.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches17
Goals Mean0.07
Goals Std0.06
Scored 1+ rate0.5%
Scored 2+ rate2.2%
Scored 3+ rate3.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.26
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.14
History Matches17
Conceded Mean-0.28
Conceded Std-0.17
Clean-sheet rate6.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.72
History Matches17
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.10
Stability score2.70
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.19
Eligible Matches19
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate21.8%
Lead Points Retention0.21
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate2.2%
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches19
First Half Goals For Mean0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.49
Portability PPG Range-0.97
Portability Score29.57
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.23
Normal Rest History Matches24
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.34
Long Rest History Matches-10
Long Rest Points Per Match0.40
Current Team ELO107.3
Current Opponent ELO-107.3
Current ELO Difference214.7
Expected score0.30
History Matches17
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance5.60
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.28

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Vissel Kobe

W
Vissel Kobe3–2Ratchaburi3 Nov · home
Pick: Vissel Kobe 53% · hit
W
Vissel Kobe3–1Nagoya Grampus31 Oct · home
Pick: Vissel Kobe 55% · hit
W
Daejeon Citizen0–1Vissel Kobe27 Oct · away
Pick: Vissel Kobe 44% · hit
D
Vissel Kobe0–0Machida Zelvia24 Oct · home
Pick: Machida Zelvia 40% · missed
L
Kawasaki Frontale2–1Vissel Kobe21 Oct · away
Pick: Kawasaki Frontale 39% · hit

Urawa

L
Kashiwa Reysol4–0Urawa31 Oct · away
Pick: Kashiwa Reysol 62% · hit
W
Urawa1–0V-varen Nagasaki25 Oct · home
Pick: V-varen Nagasaki 43% · missed
W
Urawa3–2JEF United Chiba21 Oct · home
Pick: Urawa 53% · hit
W
Mito Hollyhock0–1Urawa17 Oct · away
Pick: Mito Hollyhock 51% · missed
W
Yokohama FC0–4Urawa14 Oct · away
Pick: Yokohama FC 45% · missed

About this match

Vissel Kobe and Urawa meet in J1 League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 05:00 UTC. The match is played at Noevir Stadium, Kobe. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Vissel Kobe win 65.4%, draw 19.7%, Urawa win 15.0%. The pick is Vissel Kobe win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.3%. Both teams to score: 52.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.