ScoreProb
Esiliiga B Estonia Round 36 2026

JK Tabasalu vs Tulevik

JK Tabasalu Home · Elo 1,446
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Tulevik Away · Elo 1,485
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Tulevik win
JK Tabasalu win
39.4%
Draw
11.8%
Tulevik winPick
48.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.3%
No39.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.575.1%
Under 2.524.9%

How much we know

JK Tabasalu history63 matches
Tulevik history29 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 10:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Tulevik are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Tulevik are rated 40 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,485 against 1,446. On rating alone Tulevik would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Tulevik score far more

    1.65 goals a game over 63 matches for JK Tabasalu, against 2.59 over 29 for Tulevik.

  • Defences are close

    JK Tabasalu concede 2.22 a game, Tulevik 2.45.

  • Tulevik games more often go over 2.5 goals

    70% of JK Tabasalu matches, against 86% for Tulevik. The model puts this match at 75% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
JK Tabasalu
Tulevik
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1445.8
ELO
1485.5
63
ELO · Matches
29
1445.8
Current Team ELO
1485.5
1485.5
Current Opponent ELO
1445.8
-39.66
Current ELO Difference
39.66
0.44
Expected score
0.56
63
History Matches
29
-0.05
Residual Mean
-0.02
45.99
Overperformance
49.01
-0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.32
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
0.60
0.40
Goals for per game
1.20
3.00
Goals against per game
2.20
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
0.40
1.90
Goals for per game
1.20
2.60
Goals against per game
2.40
30.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
2.88
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
2.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.40
2.46
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.43
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
4.43
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.17
Overall performance9 signals
90
63
Matches
29
1.24
PPG
1.48
36.5%
Win rate
44.8%
14.3%
Draw rate
13.8%
49.2%
Loss rate
41.4%
87.3%
Over 1.5 rate
89.7%
69.8%
Over 2.5 rate
86.2%
52.4%
Over 3.5 rate
75.9%
2.84
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.44
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
13
1.57
PPG
1.15
46.4%
Win rate
38.5%
17.9%
Draw rate
0.0%
35.7%
Loss rate
61.5%
78.6%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
92.3%
35.7%
Over 3.5 rate
69.2%
2.35
Goal difference · Standard deviation
4.29
28
History Matches
13
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.65
Goals for per game
2.59
76.2%
Scoring rate
82.8%
57.1%
BTTS rate
72.4%
1.50
Goals for per game
2.38
82.1%
Scoring rate
84.6%
57.1%
BTTS rate
69.2%
1.46
Goals for per game
2.54
75.0%
Scoring rate
83.3%
62.5%
BTTS rate
75.0%
63
History Matches
29
1.65
Goals Mean
2.59
1.57
Goals Std
1.88
76.2%
Scored 1+ rate
82.8%
54.0%
Scored 2+ rate
65.5%
17.5%
Scored 3+ rate
48.3%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
2.38
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.22
Goals against per game
2.45
79.4%
Conceding rate
82.8%
1.86
Goals against per game
3.23
71.4%
Conceding rate
84.6%
2.71
Goals against per game
2.08
87.5%
Conceding rate
83.3%
63
History Matches
29
2.22
Conceded Mean
2.45
2.04
Conceded Std
2.42
55.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
65.5%
36.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
44.8%
1.86
Venue Conceded Mean
3.23
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.6%
Clean-sheet rate
17.2%
23.8%
Failed-to-score rate
17.2%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
20.6%
Clean-sheet rate
17.2%
23.8%
Failed-to-score rate
17.2%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
20.6%
Clean-sheet rate
17.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
63
History Matches
29
0.91
Result entropy
0.91
2.84
Goal Difference Std
3.44
9.45
Stability score
9.15
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
63
Eligible Matches
29
20
Lead Matches
10
70.0%
Lead Win Rate
90.0%
0.73
Lead Points Retention
0.93
25
Trailing Matches
12
12.0%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
63
Halftime Coverage Matches
29
0.75
First Half Goals For Mean
1.03
0.95
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.34
0.90
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.55
1.27
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.10
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.77
Rest days
76.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.67
29
Normal Rest History Matches
10
1.21
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.60
27
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.22
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.47
Competition & season17 signals
170
24
Matches
24
1.17
PPG
1.54
37.5%
Win rate
45.8%
4.2%
Draw rate
16.7%
58.3%
Loss rate
37.5%
95.8%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
79.2%
Over 2.5 rate
83.3%
58.3%
Over 3.5 rate
70.8%
2.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.12
24
Current Competition Matches
24
1.17
Current Competition PPG
1.54
-1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.46
5
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.09
Portability PPG Std
—
0.18
Portability PPG Range
—
85.02
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
63
Clean History Matches
29
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO-39.66
PPG-0.24
GF-0.94
GA-0.23
PPG-0.38
PPG0.42
PPG-0.40
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches34
Clean-sheet rate3.4%
Failed-to-score rate6.6%
History Matches15
Clean-sheet rate13.2%
Failed-to-score rate2.5%
History Matches34
Goals Mean-0.94
Goals Std-0.32
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.12
Scored 3+ rate-0.31
Venue Goals Mean-0.88
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std1.90
History Matches34
Conceded Mean-0.23
Conceded Std-0.37
Clean-sheet rate3.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.10
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-1.37
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.03
History Matches34
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.60
Stability score0.29
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std3.26
Eligible Matches34
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate-0.20
Lead Points Retention-0.20
Trailing Matches13
Non-loss rate-0.05
Trailing Win Rate-0.17
Halftime Coverage Matches34
First Half Goals For Mean-0.29
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.39
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.38
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.71
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-1.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches19
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.39
Long Rest History Matches12
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.24
Current Team ELO-39.66
Current Opponent ELO39.66
Current ELO Difference-79.31
Expected score-0.11
History Matches34
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-3.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

JK Tabasalu

D
JK Tabasalu1–1Levadia U1931 Oct · home
Pick: Levadia U19 63% · missed
W
JK Tabasalu2–1Tartu Kalev24 Oct · home
Pick: Tartu Kalev 53% · missed
D
JK Tabasalu0–0Narva U2119 Oct · home
Pick: Narva U21 61% · missed
L
Parnu JK Vaprus U212–1JK Tabasalu14 Oct · away
Pick: Parnu JK Vaprus U21 61% · hit
L
Narva U214–0JK Tabasalu29 Aug · away
Pick: Narva U21 66% · hit

Tulevik

L
Johvi Phoenix6–1Tulevik31 Oct · away
Pick: Johvi Phoenix 55% · hit
L
Narva U212–1Tulevik25 Oct · away
Pick: Narva U21 69% · hit
W
Parnu JK Vaprus U212–3Tulevik17 Oct · away
Pick: Parnu JK Vaprus U21 52% · missed
L
Tallinna Kalev II2–1Tulevik30 Aug · away
Pick: Tallinna Kalev II 50% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

JK Tabasalu and Tulevik meet in Esiliiga B on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 10:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: JK Tabasalu win 39.4%, draw 11.8%, Tulevik win 48.8%. The pick is Tulevik win. Over 2.5 goals: 75.1%. Both teams to score: 60.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.