ScoreProb
Esiliiga B Estonia Round 36 2026

Parnu JK Vaprus U21 vs Narva U21

Parnu JK Vaprus U21 Home · Elo 1,493
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Narva U21 Away · Elo 1,564
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Narva U21 win
Parnu JK Vaprus U21 win
33.2%
Draw
20.2%
Narva U21 winPick
46.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes68.4%
No31.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.577.8%
Under 2.522.2%

How much we know

Parnu JK Vaprus U21 history24 matches
Narva U21 history59 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 10:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Narva U21 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Narva U21 are rated 71 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,564 against 1,493. On rating alone Narva U21 would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Parnu JK Vaprus U21 score more

    2.79 goals a game over 24 matches for Parnu JK Vaprus U21, against 2.42 over 59 for Narva U21.

  • Narva U21 concede fewer

    Parnu JK Vaprus U21 concede 2.29 a game, Narva U21 1.46.

  • Parnu JK Vaprus U21 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    88% of Parnu JK Vaprus U21 matches, against 71% for Narva U21. The model puts this match at 78% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Parnu JK Vaprus U21
Narva U21
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1492.6
ELO
1564.0
24
ELO · Matches
59
1492.6
Current Team ELO
1564.0
1564.0
Current Opponent ELO
1492.6
-71.39
Current ELO Difference
71.39
0.40
Expected score
0.60
24
History Matches
59
-0.04
Residual Mean
0.05
47.84
Overperformance
53.97
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.00
2.20
Goals for per game
2.40
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
2.20
3.10
Goals for per game
2.50
2.10
Goals against per game
1.30
40.0%
Win rate
70.0%
3.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.50
2.30
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.43
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.22
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
3.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.72
Overall performance9 signals
90
24
Matches
59
1.38
PPG
1.83
41.7%
Win rate
57.6%
12.5%
Draw rate
10.2%
45.8%
Loss rate
32.2%
95.8%
Over 1.5 rate
83.1%
87.5%
Over 2.5 rate
71.2%
79.2%
Over 3.5 rate
52.5%
2.84
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.80
Venue performance10 signals
100
9
Matches
29
1.89
PPG
1.28
55.6%
Win rate
37.9%
22.2%
Draw rate
13.8%
22.2%
Loss rate
48.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
79.3%
88.9%
Over 2.5 rate
69.0%
88.9%
Over 3.5 rate
51.7%
2.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.88
9
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.79
Goals for per game
2.42
87.5%
Scoring rate
84.7%
79.2%
BTTS rate
52.5%
3.78
Goals for per game
1.79
100.0%
Scoring rate
75.9%
77.8%
BTTS rate
55.2%
2.78
Goals for per game
2.50
87.0%
Scoring rate
83.3%
78.3%
BTTS rate
54.2%
24
History Matches
59
2.79
Goals Mean
2.42
2.06
Goals Std
1.76
87.5%
Scored 1+ rate
84.7%
75.0%
Scored 2+ rate
59.3%
45.8%
Scored 3+ rate
49.2%
3.78
Venue Goals Mean
1.79
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.29
Goals against per game
1.46
91.7%
Conceding rate
67.8%
1.67
Goals against per game
2.00
77.8%
Conceding rate
79.3%
2.22
Goals against per game
1.42
91.3%
Conceding rate
70.8%
24
History Matches
59
2.29
Conceded Mean
1.46
1.43
Conceded Std
1.79
66.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.6%
37.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.6%
1.67
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
8.3%
Clean-sheet rate
32.2%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
15.3%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
8.7%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
13.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
8.3%
Clean-sheet rate
32.2%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
15.3%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
8.3%
Clean-sheet rate
32.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
24
History Matches
59
0.89
Result entropy
0.83
2.84
Goal Difference Std
2.80
10.59
Stability score
16.72
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
24
Eligible Matches
59
11
Lead Matches
28
63.6%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.89
6
Trailing Matches
10
33.3%
Non-loss rate
10.0%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
24
Halftime Coverage Matches
59
1.33
First Half Goals For Mean
1.14
0.92
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
1.46
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.29
1.38
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.90
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.77
Rest days
76.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
11
Normal Rest History Matches
32
0.73
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.47
10
Long Rest History Matches
24
2.20
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.29
Competition & season17 signals
170
23
Matches
24
1.43
PPG
1.88
43.5%
Win rate
58.3%
13.0%
Draw rate
12.5%
43.5%
Loss rate
29.2%
95.7%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
87.0%
Over 2.5 rate
79.2%
78.3%
Over 3.5 rate
62.5%
2.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.52
23
Current Competition Matches
24
1.43
Current Competition PPG
1.88
0.57
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.08
2
Competition Season Count
2
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.04
—
Portability PPG Range
0.08
—
Portability Score
93.02
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
24
Clean History Matches
59
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO-71.39
PPG-0.46
GF0.37
GA0.83
PPG-0.44
PPG0.61
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-35
Clean-sheet rate-0.24
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-20
Clean-sheet rate1.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.24
History Matches-35
Goals Mean0.37
Goals Std0.30
Scored 1+ rate2.8%
Scored 2+ rate15.7%
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean1.98
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.87
History Matches-35
Conceded Mean0.83
Conceded Std-0.36
Clean-sheet rate-0.24
Conceded 2+ rate31.1%
Conceded 3+ rate18.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.32
History Matches-35
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std0.04
Stability score-6.13
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.28
Eligible Matches-35
Lead Matches-17
Lead Win Rate-0.22
Lead Points Retention-0.23
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate23.3%
Trailing Win Rate16.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches-35
First Half Goals For Mean0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean0.36
Second Half Goals For Mean0.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.48
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.44
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.52
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days-1.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-21
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.74
Long Rest History Matches-14
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.09
Current Team ELO-71.39
Current Opponent ELO71.39
Current ELO Difference-142.8
Expected score-0.20
History Matches-35
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance-6.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Parnu JK Vaprus U21

W
Parnu JK Vaprus U212–0Luunja1 Nov · home
Pick: Parnu JK Vaprus U21 54% · hit
L
Levadia U193–2Parnu JK Vaprus U2126 Oct · away
Pick: Levadia U19 55% · hit
L
Parnu JK Vaprus U212–3Tulevik17 Oct · home
Pick: Parnu JK Vaprus U21 52% · missed
W
Parnu JK Vaprus U212–1JK Tabasalu14 Oct · home
Pick: Parnu JK Vaprus U21 61% · hit
W
Legion1–5Parnu JK Vaprus U2130 Aug · away
Pick: Parnu JK Vaprus U21 67% · hit

Narva U21

L
Narva U210–3Legion31 Oct · home
Pick: Narva U21 83% · missed
W
Narva U212–1Tulevik25 Oct · home
Pick: Narva U21 69% · hit
D
JK Tabasalu0–0Narva U2119 Oct · away
Pick: Narva U21 61% · missed
W
Narva U212–0Tartu Kalev15 Oct · home
Pick: Narva U21 50% · hit
W
Narva U214–0JK Tabasalu29 Aug · home
Pick: Narva U21 66% · hit

About this match

Parnu JK Vaprus U21 and Narva U21 meet in Esiliiga B on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 10:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Parnu JK Vaprus U21 win 33.2%, draw 20.2%, Narva U21 win 46.6%. The pick is Narva U21 win. Over 2.5 goals: 77.8%. Both teams to score: 68.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.