ScoreProb
Esiliiga B Estonia Round 36 2026

Johvi Phoenix vs Levadia U19

Johvi Phoenix Home · Elo 1,522
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Levadia U19 Away · Elo 1,551
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Johvi Phoenix win
Johvi Phoenix winPick
44.4%
Draw
18.2%
Levadia U19 win
37.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes70.2%
No29.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.582.1%
Under 2.517.9%

How much we know

Johvi Phoenix history56 matches
Levadia U19 history25 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 10:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Johvi Phoenix are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Levadia U19 are rated 29 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,551 against 1,522. On rating alone Levadia U19 would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    2.48 goals a game over 56 matches for Johvi Phoenix, against 2.40 over 25 for Levadia U19.

  • Levadia U19 concede fewer

    Johvi Phoenix concede 1.98 a game, Levadia U19 1.68.

  • Johvi Phoenix games more often go over 2.5 goals

    79% of Johvi Phoenix matches, against 68% for Levadia U19. The model puts this match at 82% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Johvi Phoenix
Levadia U19
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1522.4
ELO
1551.3
56
ELO · Matches
25
1522.4
Current Team ELO
1551.3
1551.3
Current Opponent ELO
1522.4
-28.86
Current ELO Difference
28.86
0.46
Expected score
0.54
56
History Matches
25
0.01
Residual Mean
0.11
50.92
Overperformance
55.85
-0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.35
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
3.00
1.00
Goals for per game
2.40
1.20
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
100.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
2.70
1.90
Goals for per game
2.40
1.80
Goals against per game
1.30
40.0%
Win rate
90.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.40
1.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.25
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.49
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.30
2.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.21
Overall performance9 signals
90
56
Matches
25
1.68
PPG
1.88
51.8%
Win rate
60.0%
12.5%
Draw rate
8.0%
35.7%
Loss rate
32.0%
91.1%
Over 1.5 rate
92.0%
78.6%
Over 2.5 rate
68.0%
66.1%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
2.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.72
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
12
2.19
PPG
1.67
69.2%
Win rate
50.0%
11.5%
Draw rate
16.7%
19.2%
Loss rate
33.3%
96.2%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
92.3%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
80.8%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
2.29
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.33
26
History Matches
12
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.48
Goals for per game
2.40
85.7%
Scoring rate
84.0%
76.8%
BTTS rate
48.0%
3.42
Goals for per game
2.75
96.2%
Scoring rate
91.7%
84.6%
BTTS rate
66.7%
2.22
Goals for per game
2.40
87.0%
Scoring rate
84.0%
82.6%
BTTS rate
48.0%
56
History Matches
25
2.48
Goals Mean
2.40
1.76
Goals Std
1.65
85.7%
Scored 1+ rate
84.0%
66.1%
Scored 2+ rate
68.0%
50.0%
Scored 3+ rate
48.0%
3.42
Venue Goals Mean
2.75
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.98
Goals against per game
1.68
89.3%
Conceding rate
64.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.83
88.5%
Conceding rate
75.0%
2.26
Goals against per game
1.68
91.3%
Conceding rate
64.0%
56
History Matches
25
1.98
Conceded Mean
1.68
1.27
Conceded Std
1.69
62.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
48.0%
30.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
24.0%
2.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.83
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
10.7%
Clean-sheet rate
36.0%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
16.0%
11.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
3.8%
Failed-to-score rate
8.3%
8.7%
Clean-sheet rate
36.0%
13.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.0%
10.7%
Clean-sheet rate
36.0%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
16.0%
11.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
3.8%
Failed-to-score rate
8.3%
10.7%
Clean-sheet rate
36.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
56
History Matches
25
0.88
Result entropy
0.79
2.22
Goal Difference Std
2.72
11.85
Stability score
20.52
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
56
Eligible Matches
24
18
Lead Matches
14
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
78.6%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.81
16
Trailing Matches
5
37.5%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
56
Halftime Coverage Matches
24
1.09
First Half Goals For Mean
1.29
0.95
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
1.39
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.21
1.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.96
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.94
Rest days
75.77
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
25
Normal Rest History Matches
14
1.80
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.00
26
Long Rest History Matches
8
1.62
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.63
Competition & season17 signals
170
23
Matches
25
1.52
PPG
1.88
47.8%
Win rate
60.0%
8.7%
Draw rate
8.0%
43.5%
Loss rate
32.0%
87.0%
Over 1.5 rate
92.0%
78.3%
Over 2.5 rate
68.0%
56.5%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.72
23
Current Competition Matches
25
1.52
Current Competition PPG
1.88
-0.04
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.72
2
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.13
Portability PPG Std
—
0.27
Portability PPG Range
—
78.98
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
56
Clean History Matches
25
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO-28.86
PPG-0.20
GF0.08
GA0.30
PPG-0.36
PPG0.53
PPG-1.60
PPG-1.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches31
Clean-sheet rate-0.25
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches31
Goals Mean0.08
Goals Std0.11
Scored 1+ rate1.7%
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate2.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.67
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.59
History Matches31
Conceded Mean0.30
Conceded Std-0.42
Clean-sheet rate-0.25
Conceded 2+ rate14.5%
Conceded 3+ rate6.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.17
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.24
History Matches31
Result entropy0.09
Goal Difference Std-0.50
Stability score-8.67
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.56
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.09
Eligible Matches32
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate-0.01
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches11
Non-loss rate17.5%
Trailing Win Rate25.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches32
First Half Goals For Mean-0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean0.24
Second Half Goals For Mean0.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Current Competition Matches-2
Current Competition PPG-0.36
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.76
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days1.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.25
Normal Rest History Matches11
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.20
Long Rest History Matches18
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.01
Current Team ELO-28.86
Current Opponent ELO28.86
Current ELO Difference-57.71
Expected score-0.08
History Matches31
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance-4.92
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.49

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Johvi Phoenix

W
Johvi Phoenix6–1Tulevik31 Oct · home
Pick: Johvi Phoenix 55% · hit
W
Legion0–4Johvi Phoenix24 Oct · away
Pick: Johvi Phoenix 72% · hit
L
Tartu Kalev4–0Johvi Phoenix18 Oct · away
Pick: Tartu Kalev 62% · hit
L
Johvi Phoenix1–3Luunja15 Oct · home
Pick: Johvi Phoenix 43% · missed
L
Johvi Phoenix0–3Tartu Kalev29 Aug · home
Pick: Tartu Kalev 45% · hit

Levadia U19

D
JK Tabasalu1–1Levadia U1931 Oct · away
Pick: Levadia U19 63% · missed
W
Levadia U193–2Parnu JK Vaprus U2126 Oct · home
Pick: Levadia U19 55% · hit
W
Levadia U193–1Tallinna Kalev II18 Oct · home
Pick: Levadia U19 63% · hit
W
Luunja2–5Levadia U1931 Aug · away
Pick: Levadia U19 45% · hit
W
Levadia U191–0Legion24 Aug · home
Pick: Levadia U19 88% · hit

About this match

Johvi Phoenix and Levadia U19 meet in Esiliiga B on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 10:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Johvi Phoenix win 44.4%, draw 18.2%, Levadia U19 win 37.3%. The pick is Johvi Phoenix win. Over 2.5 goals: 82.1%. Both teams to score: 70.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.