ScoreProb
1 Lyga Lithuania Round 30 2026

Tauras vs Transinvest 2

Tauras Home · Elo 1,602
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Transinvest 2 Away · Elo 1,440
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Tauras win
Tauras winPick
82.2%
Draw
11.1%
Transinvest 2 win
6.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.3%
No47.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.571.9%
Under 2.528.1%

How much we know

Tauras history60 matches
Transinvest 2 history21 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 80%+ band (82.2%). Picks in that band won 83.3% of the time, and the model said 84.5% on average, over 162 matches. This band has few matches, so treat the figures with care.

Why Tauras are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Tauras are rated 162 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,602 against 1,440. On rating alone Tauras would be expected to take 72% of the points on offer.

  • Tauras score far more

    1.85 goals a game over 60 matches for Tauras, against 1.10 over 21 for Transinvest 2.

  • Tauras concede fewer

    Tauras concede 0.98 a game, Transinvest 2 2.38.

  • Transinvest 2 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    55% of Tauras matches, against 71% for Transinvest 2. The model puts this match at 72% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Tauras
Transinvest 2
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1601.6
ELO
1439.6
60
ELO · Matches
21
1601.6
Current Team ELO
1439.6
1439.6
Current Opponent ELO
1601.6
162.0
Current ELO Difference
-162.0
0.72
Expected score
0.28
60
History Matches
21
0.08
Residual Mean
-0.15
56.35
Overperformance
42.40
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.60
1.40
Goals for per game
1.60
1.20
Goals against per game
2.40
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
0.70
1.60
Goals for per game
1.20
1.00
Goals against per game
2.20
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.28
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.08
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.20
0.63
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.33
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.55
Overall performance9 signals
90
60
Matches
21
1.95
PPG
0.86
58.3%
Win rate
23.8%
20.0%
Draw rate
14.3%
21.7%
Loss rate
61.9%
76.7%
Over 1.5 rate
81.0%
55.0%
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
35.0%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.00
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
11
2.06
PPG
0.82
64.5%
Win rate
27.3%
12.9%
Draw rate
0.0%
22.6%
Loss rate
72.7%
83.9%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
64.5%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
41.9%
Over 3.5 rate
45.5%
2.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
31
History Matches
11
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.85
Goals for per game
1.10
85.0%
Scoring rate
57.1%
56.7%
BTTS rate
47.6%
2.06
Goals for per game
1.09
87.1%
Scoring rate
54.5%
58.1%
BTTS rate
54.5%
1.76
Goals for per game
1.10
85.7%
Scoring rate
57.1%
61.9%
BTTS rate
47.6%
60
History Matches
21
1.85
Goals Mean
1.10
1.41
Goals Std
1.06
85.0%
Scored 1+ rate
57.1%
55.0%
Scored 2+ rate
42.9%
25.0%
Scored 3+ rate
9.5%
2.06
Venue Goals Mean
1.09
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.98
Goals against per game
2.38
65.0%
Conceding rate
90.5%
1.10
Goals against per game
2.82
61.3%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.10
Goals against per game
2.38
76.2%
Conceding rate
90.5%
60
History Matches
21
0.98
Conceded Mean
2.38
1.01
Conceded Std
1.65
20.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
61.9%
10.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
47.6%
1.10
Venue Conceded Mean
2.82
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
9.5%
15.0%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
38.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
12.9%
Failed-to-score rate
45.5%
23.8%
Clean-sheet rate
9.5%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
9.5%
15.0%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
38.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
12.9%
Failed-to-score rate
45.5%
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
9.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
60
History Matches
21
0.88
Result entropy
0.83
1.82
Goal Difference Std
2.00
11.92
Stability score
16.57
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
21
24
Lead Matches
2
87.5%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
1.00
17
Trailing Matches
9
47.1%
Non-loss rate
11.1%
23.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
21
0.75
First Half Goals For Mean
0.48
0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
1.10
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.46
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.38
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.88
Rest days
73.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
30
Normal Rest History Matches
9
2.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.67
27
Long Rest History Matches
10
1.96
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.80
Competition & season17 signals
170
21
Matches
21
1.86
PPG
0.86
57.1%
Win rate
23.8%
14.3%
Draw rate
14.3%
28.6%
Loss rate
61.9%
81.0%
Over 1.5 rate
81.0%
52.4%
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.00
21
Current Competition Matches
21
1.86
Current Competition PPG
0.86
0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.29
6
Competition Season Count
1
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.32
Portability PPG Std
—
0.74
Portability PPG Range
—
61.22
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
60
Clean History Matches
21
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO162.0
PPG1.09
GF0.75
GA-1.40
PPG1.00
PPG1.25
PPG1.00
PPG1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches39
Clean-sheet rate25.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.28
History Matches20
Clean-sheet rate38.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.33
History Matches39
Goals Mean0.75
Goals Std0.35
Scored 1+ rate27.9%
Scored 2+ rate12.1%
Scored 3+ rate15.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.97
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.20
History Matches39
Conceded Mean-1.40
Conceded Std-0.64
Clean-sheet rate25.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.42
Conceded 3+ rate-0.38
Venue Conceded Mean-1.72
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.69
History Matches39
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.18
Stability score-4.65
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.27
Eligible Matches38
Lead Matches22
Lead Win Rate-0.13
Lead Points Retention-0.10
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate35.9%
Trailing Win Rate23.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches38
First Half Goals For Mean0.27
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.51
Second Half Goals For Mean0.48
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.92
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.95
Competition Season Count5
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days4.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches21
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.33
Long Rest History Matches17
Long Rest Points Per Match1.16
Current Team ELO162.0
Current Opponent ELO-162.0
Current ELO Difference323.9
Expected score0.44
History Matches39
Residual Mean0.23
Overperformance13.95
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Tauras

W
Ekranas1–2Tauras30 Oct · away
Pick: Tauras 73% · hit
L
Tauras1–2Be1 NFA24 Oct · home
Pick: Tauras 54% · missed
D
Hegelmann II4–4Tauras16 Oct · away
Pick: Tauras 64% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Transinvest 2

D
Transinvest 23–3Garliava1 Nov · home
Pick: Garliava 51% · missed
W
Transinvest 23–2FA Šiauliai II26 Oct · home
Pick: Transinvest 2 46% · hit
W
Kauno Žalgiris II0–2Transinvest 216 Oct · away
Pick: Kauno Žalgiris II 56% · missed
L
Transinvest 21–2Jonava29 Aug · home
Pick: Jonava 46% · hit
L
Žalgiris II4–3Transinvest 225 Aug · away
Pick: Žalgiris II 68% · hit

About this match

Tauras and Transinvest 2 meet in 1 Lyga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Tauras win 82.2%, draw 11.1%, Transinvest 2 win 6.7%. The pick is Tauras win. Over 2.5 goals: 71.9%. Both teams to score: 52.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.